基于修正场模型的区域空间结构演变及空间整合〖HT2”SS〗——以泛长江三角洲为例

随着长江三角洲经济发展及其面临问题,长三角泛化已成为必然,研究泛长三角空间结构演变有利于正确认识和把握其空间发展态势,从而为泛长三角区域一体化进程提供问题依据。以场强模型为基石,根据扩散理论,构建了场对数扩散效应模型,从城市场这一新视角分析了泛长三角区域空间演进过程。泛长三角城市影响区自改革开放以来经历了疏点-“之”-“几”-“皮皮虾”-“鳊鱼”5种空间形态;根据这一空间形态极其演变规律提炼出疏点类型、散块类型、条带类型、团块类型、板块类型五种空间结构类型;在此基础上,由“以点建轴,以轴布面”思想,以产业结构整体升级为引导,对泛长三角区域进行空间整合,形成由三级中心城市、三级发展轴线以及内核城市群、邻接城市群和外缘城市群组成的核心-边缘结构三级产业城市群。     

高效稳定的单一汞同位素大气发生系统

汞在大气-植被-土壤界面间的迁移转化一直是近年来研究的热点,稳定汞同位素添加技术为这一科学问题的研究提供了新的手段,而如何产生低浓度、稳定、连续且经济可行的单一汞同位素大气(xxx Hg0)是试验研究的难点与关键。本试验旨在设计、创建微环境单一汞同位素富集大气的发生系统,该系统不仅具有低成本,可以连续产生低浓度、稳定性强、可控性高、利用效率高的同位素汞蒸气(xxx Hg0)特性,还兼有轻便灵巧、安装便捷、可移动性强和适用范围广等特点。     

北京冬季雾霾频发期VOCs源解析及健康风险评价

采用低温固体吸附采样、热脱附-气相色谱-质谱联用的方法对北京冬季雾霾频发期空气中挥发性有机物(VOCs)进行了连续监测,对以雾霾期为标志划分的4个阶段的VOCs浓度水平与组成变化特征进行了分析研究,利用正矩阵因数分解模型(positive matrix factorization,PMF)对VOCs的可能来源进行解析,并进行了健康风险评价.结果表明,VOCs的日均浓度为332.34μg·m~(-3),苯系物和卤代烃在研究区域大气环境的VOCs中含量占主导地位;冬季雾霾的主要污染物排放源为溶剂/涂料使用及机动车尾气排放;区域所检出的致癌性VOCs的致癌风险均超过了EPA给出的风险限值.     

循环经济发展评价的生态效率测算模型及应用

生态效率是基于可持续发展的思想,鉴于循环经济发展和实际环境的需求,通过构建循环经济发展评价的生态效率测算模型,针对循环经济中资源和环境2个重要方面,选择实例进行模型的应用。所选择研究对象经过测算,生态效率在"十一五"期间呈现波动上升,在5年时间增长了1.1倍,但仍处于末端治理为主的循环经济发展阶段,较为客观地反映了当地循环经济的发展轨迹。通过相关分析和说明,为循环经济发展评价提供生态效率分析这一方案选择。     

Performance of CH4MOD wetland for the case study of different regions of natural Chinese wetland

Reliable national estimates of CH₄ emissions from natural wetlands depend on model validation based on site observations. We therefore evaluated the performance of the CH4MOD_wetland model in simulating CH₄ emissions from 11 representative wetland sites in five regions of China. Model performance analysis showed that this method effectively simulates differences in the CH₄ fluxes between different sites and regions. The model efficiency for estimating the daily CH₄ fluxes in the northeastern China (NE), Inner Mongolia and northwestern China (NW), the North China plain and the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plain (E) and the Qinghai Tibetan Plateau (SW) was 0.51, 0.20, 0.52 and 0.65, respectively. The efficiency for estimating the annual mean CH₄ fluxes in southern China (S) was 0.99. Systematic negative deviation between the simulated and observed CH₄ emissions existed in all regions, especially in the NW region, which had a mean deviation (RMD) value of − 36.7%. On the national scale, the root mean square error (RMSE), the RMD, the model efficiency (EF) between the simulated and observed seasonal values were 28.7%, − 7.8% and 0.93, respectively. The CH₄ emissions showed the highest sensitivity to air temperature in the NE and SW regions, and to water table depth in the E region. Based on the sensitivity analysis, future climate warming and wetting are likely to increase the wetland CH₄ emissions at different levels in all regions of China.     

The separation of reinforced cementitious composites with a stream-line cutting tool

The paper provides a model for the cutting of reinforced concrete members with stream-line cutting tools. The model is an extended version of the energy model originally developed by Momber and Kovacevic (1995) for hydro-abrasive machining. The model allows the stepwise calculation of the energy absorbed during the cutting of the two parts of the compound - steel bar and matrix material. Hydro-abrasive cutting tests on different cementitious composites are performed in order to verify the numerical results. It is shown that the cutting process can be subdivided into four cutting stages whose locations depended on the energy locally available at the erosion site.     

Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification1

Lee, Se‐Yeun, Alan F. Hamlet, Carolyn J. Fitzgerald, and Stephen J. Burges, 2011. Methodology for Developing Flood Rule Curves Conditioned on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Classification. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(1):81‐92. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2010.00490.x Abstract: Regional climate varies on interannual and decadal time scales that in turn affect annual streamflows, flood risks, and reservoir storage deficits in mid‐summer. However, these variable elements of the climate system are generally not included in water resources operating policies that attempt to preserve a balance between flood risk and other water resources system objectives. A methodology for incorporating El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) information in designing flood control curves is investigated. An optimization‐simulation procedure is used to develop a set of ENSO‐conditioned flood control rule curves that relate streamflow forecasts to flood control evacuation requirements. ENSO‐conditioned simulated flood risk and storage deficits under current operating policy are used to calibrate a unique objective function for each ENSO classification. Using a case study for the Columbia River Basin, we demonstrate that ENSO‐conditioned flood control curves constructed using the optimization‐simulation procedure consistently reduce storage deficits at a number of interrelated projects without increasing flood risk. For the Columbia Basin, the overall improvements in reservoir operations are relatively modest, and (in isolation) might not motivate a restructuring of flood control operations. However, the technique is widely applicable to a wide range of water resources systems and/or different climate indices.     

Stochastic gravity models for modeling lake invasions

Freshwater aquatic systems in North America are being invaded by many different species, ranging from fish, mollusks, cladocerans to various bacteria and viruses. These invasions have serious ecological and economic impacts. Human activities such as recreational boating are an important pathway for dispersal. Gravity models are used to quantify the dispersal effect of human activity. Gravity models currently used in ecology are deterministic. This paper proposes the use of stochastic gravity models in ecology, which provides new capabilities both in model building and in potential model applications. These models allow us to use standard statistical inference tools such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection based on information criteria. To facilitate prediction, we use only those covariates that are easily available from common data sources and can be forecasted in future. This is important for forecasting the spread of invasive species in geographical and temporal domain. The proposed model is portable, that is it can be used for estimating relative boater traffic and hence relative propagule pressure for the lakes not covered by current boater surveys. This makes our results broadly applicable to various invasion prediction and management models.