Ecosystem Manipulation Experimentation as a Means of Testing a Biogeochemical Model

2 concentration, and global or regional temperature change. Such model projections are frequently used as the basis or justification for public policy decisions and legislation. A substantial need has therefore arisen to test and substantiate the veracity of mathematical model projections. Unfortunately, environmental models can never be truly validated because natural systems are never closed and model solutions are always nonunique. Partial model confirmation is possible, however, and entails demonstration of agreement between prediction and observation. Experimental ecosystem manipulation provides one of the best, and in many cases only, available basis for model confirmation. The use and potential misuse of data from experimental ecosystem manipulations for model testing is explored using examples drawn from the application of an acid–base chemistry model, MAGIC. As model projections provide an increasingly important basis for public policy decisions, and as both the scientific questions and the models become increasingly complex, it will become critical to provide data from a suite of well-designed ecosystem manipulation experiments in order to evaluate the quality and uncertainty of those model projections and the models upon which they are based.     

Tijuana Childhood Lead Risk Assessment Revisited: Validating a GIS Model with Environmental Data

The objective of this research was to determine the spatial distributions of childhood lead poisoning and soil lead contamination in urban Tijuana. The Bocco–Sanchez model of point-source emissions was evaluated in terms of validity and reliability. We compared the model's predicted vulnerable populations with observed cases of childhood lead poisoning in Tijuana, identified fixed point sources in the field, and analyzed 76 soil samples from 14 sites. The soil lead results were compared to the blood lead analyses performed on Tijuana children whose blood lead levels were ≥10 μg/dL, who reported that they did not use lead-glazed ceramics for cooking or storing food (n = 63). Using GIS, predicted vs observed risk areas were assessed by examining spatial patterns, including the distribution of cases per designated risk area. Chi-square analysis of expected vs observed values did not differ significantly at the p = 0.02 level, showing that the model was strikingly accurate in predicting the distribution of subjects with elevated blood lead. Results reveal that while point sources are significant, other sources of lead exposure are also important. The relative public health risk from exposure to lead in an urban setting may be assessed by distinguishing among sources of exposure and associating concentrations to blood lead levels. The results represent an iterative approach in environmental health research by linking environmental and human biomarker lead concentrations and using these results to validate an environmental model of risk to lead exposure.     

室内准稳态压力火灾烟气沉降模型的改进和实验验证

对室内火灾及烟气的研究给消防工程领域带来了诸多益处,如疏散时间预测、基于性能化的设计分析等.Zukoski(Fire and Materials,1978,2(2):54-62)在室内火灾烟气运动的开创性研究给出了基于质量和能量平衡的理论方法,为后续研究奠定了基础.然而实验发现,由于忽略热损失偏差,模型对近壁面火源的火...     

我国水射流清洗切割现状分析

从不同角度对我国水射流清洗切割的现状作了较为全面的分析。在调查研究的基础上，分析了我国水射流清洗切割的技术概况和市场状况，提出了经营中的运作模式和发展思路。同时，探讨了水射流技术与安全工程的关系。     

井底冲击压力特性的研究

运用数值模拟的方法研究了单喷嘴射流撞击井底时产生的冲击压力及其分布规律。研究结果表明，井底最大冲击压力梯度所在的位置距撞击中心约０．１１４倍喷距处，井底最大冲击压力梯度和射流喷速成正比，和喷距成反比，本文绘出了其数学表达式。数值计算结果和室内实验数据吻合较为一致。     

公路工程施工安全事故致因模型构建

为了探究公路施工安全事故诱因及其影响关系,基于"4M"理论和事故致因"2-4"模型,识别公路工程施工安全事故致因因素并确定模型框架,运用SPSS Modeler软件对2007~2017年426起事故进行关联规则挖掘,采取路径分析与重要度分析,构建出公路工程施工安全事故致因模型。结果表明:施工单位内外部原因共同引发公路工程施工安全事故,外部原因来源于建设单位、监理单位和勘察设计单位的安全管理缺失,而施工单位内部影响因素中,人的不安全动作、物的不安全因素、不良的生产环境和自然环境是事故发生的直接原因,无效的安全监管和作业层安全素质及能力不强是间接原因,根本原因是施工程序和技术方案存在缺陷,根源原因是决策层和管理层的安全素质及能力有待提高。该模型系统展现了工程施工项目安全事故致因因素的影响关系和重要程度,为公路工程施工安全事故预防提供指导。     

职业人群健康监护信息管理系统的研究

健康监护信息管理系统可以对尘肺发生、发展情况进行跟踪与监视。也反映了对这一职业人群职业病监测的信息从收集、贮存到处理、利用,建立一个完整的反馈系统的重要意义。该系统结构合理、功能性强、程序设计简洁清晰、运行可靠,达到了规范化、标准化的要求。通过对这一职业人群的医学监护,可以及时分析全省工业中尘肺发展动态,从而为防治尘肺的科学决策提供可靠依据,并为深入开展尘肺病因学、流行病学、卫生学科研工作奠定基础。     

常州市NO2 污染特征及一次污染过程分析

利用2013年—2017年常州市NO_2数据,分析常州市NO_2污染特征,结合混合层高度及水溶性离子组分等数据,重点分析2017年11月1日—3日的大气污染过程及成因。结果表明,秋、冬季NO_2呈逐年升高趋势,NO_2污染日益凸显,秋、冬季在不利气象条件下,NO_2质量浓度易在交通晚高峰时间段迅速升高,并形成污染过程。针对NO_2污染应加强本地污染源管控,提前削峰减排。