基于情景信息扩散模型的雾霾社会风险演化仿真研究

雾霾灾害不仅危害公众健康,且风险信息的传播会引发社会次级风险。为了研究社会风险信息的扩散演化趋势,本文构建了雾霾社会风险的情景信息扩散模型。以中国2013年雾霾灾害为例,将风险信息扩散过程分为爆发期、扩散期和稳定期,分析了不同参数条件下的信息扩散规律。结果表明,政府应在风险信息爆发期和扩散期增大官方渠道信息的覆盖范围,尤其在爆发期需对自由渠道发布的信息进行严格监管,在社会风险扩大之前制定应对策略。     

Impact of leakage location and downwind storage tank on the gas dispersion in a typical chemical tank storage area

Toxic gas leakage in a tank area can have catastrophic consequences. Storage tank leakage location (particularly for high leakage) and downwind storage tanks potentially influence gas diffusion in tank areas. In this study, we developed a numerical and experimental method to investigate the impact of a high leakage location and downwind storage tank on gas diffusion based on three (1.05H, 0.90H, and 0.77H, H was the tank height, 22m) leakage field experiments on the leeward side of storage tank, which have been not conducted before. The experiments revealed an unexpected phenomenon: the maximum ground concentration first decreased and then increased with increasing leakage height. The simulations illustrated that the differences in micrometeorological conditions caused the maximum ground concentration of gas emitted from the roof to be higher than that emitted from the tank wall near the storage tank height. The downwind storage tank 1) had little influence on the entire diffusion direction but altered the local diffusion pattern; 2) reduced the maximum ground concentration (∼18.7%) and the distance from the emission source (approximately a storage tank diameter); and 3) had strong influences on the concentration, velocity, turbulence, and pressure on the leeward side. The concentration negatively correlated with the velocity, pressure, and turbulence in the middle of the two storage tanks on wind centerline. Our results can improve understanding of gas dispersion in tank areas and provide references for mitigating loss and protecting lives during emergency response processes.     

Threatened and Endangered Species: At What Cost? The Corps of Engineers Looks at Expenditures and Priorities

Current political conditions, primarily budgetary uncertainty, and the related reluctance to make funding commitments for future generations, have raised questions about the costs of conservation and environmental protection that have not previously been asked. As Federal investments are scrutinized and budgets become ever more constrained, the costs associated with environmental requirements could begin to be of greater importance and to influence decisions on Federal projects. In response to concerns about the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) spending under the Endangered Species Act (P.L. 93-205) (ESA), a limited investigation was performed to determine the accuracy of reported Corps expenditures. The investigation showed that, for particular groups of species, actual conservation costs for threatened and endangered species may be twice the amounts previously reported in the annual ESA expenditure reporting to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In light of this finding, the Corps has sought a means to provide more accurate and consistent reporting of expenditures for addressing threatened and endangered species. A Species Costs Template (template) has been developed to identify the types and magnitude of costs related to the ESA and to counteract the impediments (legal, institutional, and practical) to underreporting costs. The template will be used by the Corps for reporting ESA costs beginning with Fiscal Year 2005 (FY05) (reported in January 2006). Five broad categories of expenditures (effects determination costs, ESA protection and conservation costs, equipment costs, opportunity costs, and other species costs) are identified by the template.     

焊接工艺多源散发的高温颗粒污染物扩散特性数值模拟

为探究热工艺过程产生的热气流作用下颗粒的迁移规律,基于气固两相离散粒子模型(DPM)对多源浮射流伴生的高温颗粒的扩散特性进行了数值研究,讨论了两相流运动过程中热气流与颗粒群的温度和速度的瞬时变化情况.结果表明,对于473K£T₀£673K的高温颗粒群,温度衰减趋势类似,颗粒群温度分布呈中心对称;当5μm£d_p£20μm时,颗粒与气流之间的跟随性随着粒径的增大而降低;热羽流随时间经历了独立发展和相互合并的过程,羽流之间涡旋结构的消失导致中心位污染源散发的d_p=10μm的颗粒更容易发生沉降.     

洞庭湖钉螺扩散与水情变化规律

洞庭湖区是目前我国钉螺分布范围最广且血吸虫病疫情最难防治的疫区。为揭示近年来洞庭湖区钉螺扩散与疫区水情变化的关系，从洪水对钉螺扩散及其孳生地环境淹没时间影响考虑，提出了表征疫区钉螺扩散及孳生地变化的水情指标，选用最能综合反映洪水年水情变化的汛期平均水位作为疫区水情变化的表征指标，并以洞庭湖为例定量分析了洞庭湖区钉螺扩散与以城陵矶站汛期平均水位为指示性指标的疫区水情的相关关系。其结果显示洞庭湖区钉螺面积与湖区汛期平均水位线性相关性显著，其相关关系式为y＝0.107 2x+14382(r=0822,p<005)，其中y为洞庭湖区钉螺分布面积，x为城陵矶站汛期平均水位。     

Growth and Foliar Nitrogen Status of Four Plant Species Exposed to Atmospheric Ammonia

A chamber study was conducted to evaluate the growth response and leaf nitrogen (N) status of four plant species exposed to continuous ammonia (NH₃) for 12 weeks (wk). This was intended to evaluate appropriate plant species that could be used to trap discharged NH₃ from the exhaust fans in poultry feeding operations before moving off-site. Two hundred and forty bare-root plants of four species (Juniperus virginiana (red cedar), Gleditsia triacanthos var. inermis (thornless honey locust), Populus sp. (hybrid poplar), and Phalaris arundinacea (reed canary grass) were transplanted into 4- or 8-L polyethylene pots and grown in four environmentally controlled chambers. Plants placed in two of the four chambers received continuous exposure to anhydrous NH₃ at 4 to 5 ppm while plants in another two chambers received no NH₃. In each of the four chambers, 2 to 4 plants per species received no fertilizer while the rest of the plants were fertilized with a 100 ppm solution containing 21% N, 7% phosphorus, and 7% potassium. The results showed that honey locust was the fastest-growing species. The superior growth of honey locust among all species was also supported by its total biomass, root, and root dry matter (DM) weights. For all species there was a trend for plants exposed to NH₃ to have greater leaf DM than their non-exposed counterparts at 6 (43.0 vs. 30.8%; P = 0.09) and 12 wk (47.9 vs. 36.6%; P = 0.07), and significantly greater (P ≤ 0.05) leaf N content at 6 (6.44 vs. 3.67%) and 12 wk (7.05 vs. 3.51%) when exposed to NH₃. Numerically greater leaf DM due to NH₃ exposure was also consistently measured in poplar at both sampling periods. Hybrid poplar, as well as honey locust and reed canary grass, deposited 1.5 to 2-fold greater N in their leaves than red cedar tissues as a result of NH₃ exposure compared to non-exposed plants. Regardless of the effect of NH₃ on foliar color and damage score of the plants, the increase of foliar N content (g 100 g^?1 of fresh foliage weight) after NH₃ exposure at 6 and 12 wk was 0.45 and 0.87 for grass,1.25 and 1.34 for locust, and 2.67 and 6.09 for poplar. However, only honey locust likely benefited from ambient NH₃ as indicated by its consistent leaf color quality and lower damage score, compared with other species that were adversely affected by atmospheric NH₃.     

Effect of density-driven flow on the through-diffusion experiment

Diffusion is one of the main mechanisms of solute transport in pore water of geologic media. The effective diffusion coefficient of a solute in a rock is usually measured by the through-diffusion experiment. However, in this experiment, the effect of advection, induced by density difference between dense aqueous solution and pure water, has not been considered. To evaluate the effect of density-driven flow, a through-diffusion experiment using Fontainebleau sandstone was conducted for KCl and KI aqueous solutions with various densities. The measured effective diffusion coefficients were positively correlated with the density difference; the effective diffusion coefficient of a 1 M KI solution (density difference, 0.119 g/cm³) was one order of magnitude larger than that of a 0.1 M KCl solution (density difference, 0.005 g/cm³). The result is explained by a theoretical model using a diffusion–advection equation including Darcy's law. Based on the theory, a diagram to evaluate the condition at which the measured effective diffusion coefficient does not include the effect of advection is presented.     

全国大气扩散输送模态与区划研究

基于NCEP再分析气象资料,使用HYSPLIT模式对我国大陆区域进行了一整年的连续轨迹计算.轨迹以1°×1°的网格化经纬度分辨率进行计算.考虑气候、地理及经济因素,将全国计算区域分为10个大区,分别统计各大区出发的轨迹在全国的分布频率.根据全年和各季的轨迹统计结果,分析我国不同区域的大气输送扩散特征以及区域间大气环境的相互影响潜势.结果表明,全国10个大区的大气扩散输送模态可分为特性不同的7大类,其中以西北方向的3个大区为一类,西南高原的2个大区为另一类,其它各区自成一类.10个大区大气扩散物质的累积效应差异显著且季节变化特征各异.全国以西南区(XN)东部大气累积效应最强,东北区(DB)累积效应最弱.     

小型池塘水-气界面CH4冒泡通量的观测

为了量化亚热带浅水养殖塘CH_4冒泡通量占CH_4总通量的比例,选取安徽省全椒县两个小型池塘为研究对象,采用倒置漏斗法和顶空平衡法,自2016年7月28日至8月13日观测夏季水-气界面的CH_4通量.结果表明,两个池塘CH_4冒泡通量分别是121.78 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1)和161.08 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1),CH_4扩散通量分别是3.38 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1)和3.79 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1),CH_4冒泡通量占总通量比例分别是97.5%和96.4%.CH_4冒泡通量具有高度空间异质性,A塘CH_4冒泡通量的变化范围为0.11~446.90 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1),B塘CH_4冒泡通量变化范围为0.05~607.51 mg·(m~2·d)~(-1).两个池塘的气体冒泡速率都是白天高于夜间,主要受风速控制.对于较浅的池塘,在小时尺度上,CH_4冒泡通量的主要影响因素是风速;在日尺度上,CH_4冒泡通量的主要影响因素是风速和水深,其中CH_4冒泡通量与风速呈正相关关系,与水深呈负相关关系.不同纬度的水体CH_4冒泡通量不同,中纬度地区的淡水环境比高纬度地区CH_4冒泡通量更高.通过观测手段量化小型浅水池塘CH_4冒泡通量,可以为准确估算内陆水体对区域和全球碳循环的贡献提供数据支持和理论参考.     

2015~2018年中国代表性城市PM2.5浓度的城乡差异

选取中国6大城市群中的11座代表性城市为研究区域,将监测站点划分为城区、郊区和乡村站,进而分析各城市间PM_2.5浓度的城乡差异规律.结果表明,同一城市群各城市之间,或同一城市的城区、郊区、乡村站间PM_2.5日变化皆较为相似.京津冀和长三角地区的城市城区PM_2.5浓度最高,高于郊区7.8%~9.7%,高于乡村11.3%~16.9%,而粤港澳大湾区和内陆城市群（成渝、长江中游、关中平原城市群）的城市郊区PM_2.5浓度最高,高于城区2.6%~11.2%,高于乡村16.7%~26.5%.各城市间城乡PM_2.5浓度差值的日变化规律不尽相同,可呈单峰（如上海）或双峰（如杭州）变化,极值可出现在白天（如广州）,亦可在夜间（如深圳）.PM_2.5的排放与传输扩散共同对11城市城乡PM_2.5浓度分布产生影响.