A spatially explicit empirical model of structural development processes in natural forests based on climate and topography

Stand structure develops with stand age. Old-growth forests with well-developed stand structure support many species. However, development rates of stand structure likely vary with climate and topography. We modeled structural development of 4 key stand variables and a composite old-growth index as functions of climatic and topographic covariates. We used a hierarchical Bayesian method for analysis of extensive snap-shot National Forest Inventory (NFI) data in Japan (n = 9244) to account for differences in stand age. Development rates of structural variables and the old-growth index exhibited curvilinear responses to environmental covariates. Flat sites were characterized by high rates of structural development. Approximately 150 years were generally required to attain high values (approximately 0.8) of the old-growth index. However, the predicted age to achieve specific values varied depending on environmental conditions. Spatial predictions highlighted regional variation in potential structural development rates. For example, sometimes there were differences of >100 years among sites, even in the same catchment, in attainment of a medium index value (0.5) after timber harvesting. The NFI data suggested that natural forests, especially old natural forests (>150 years), remain generally on unproductive ridges, steep slopes, or areas with low temperature and deep snow, where many structural variables show slow development rates. We suggest that maintenance and restoration of old natural forests on flat sites should be prioritized for conservation due to the likely rapid development of stand structure, although remaining natural forests on low-productivity sites are still important and should be protected.     

Systematic incorporation of inherent safety in hazardous chemicals supply chain optimization

Increasing globalization has made many chemical supply chains large, interdependent and complex. Process incidents often affect the reliability of a supply chain and can cause large disruptions at different segments of the industry. We propose an optimization-based framework that systematically takes into account the trade-offs between process safety and supply chain economics for decision-making. We quantify the hazard at various supply chain echelons in the form of a safety index that takes both fire and toxic hazards into account. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP)-based model is developed to either maximize profit for specified hazard limits, or to minimize hazard in a supply chain with multiple production plants, technological options, warehouses and distribution nodes. The MINLP model is used to generate trade-off optimal solutions for various toxic and fire hazard limits. The framework is demonstrated by applying it to an end-to-end ammonia supply chain case study which resulted in several non-intuitive observations regarding hazardous supply chain design and optimization.     

地震震后埋压人员伤情程度分级研究

地震震后救援的重点对象是被埋压的伤员,为了在实施救援之前对伤员受伤程度进行准确判断,进一步弥补目前针对埋压人员伤情判断缺少统一标准的不足。基于现有文献在地震震后人员受伤特点以及分级救援等方面已有成果,对地震埋压的形成、救援、伤亡情况进行统计和分析。通过对埋压伤员损害因素以及对救援的影响因素进行综合分析,对埋压伤员的损伤进行分类,进而确定对地震震后埋压伤员的损伤分级指标及其优先顺序。最后,以其他类似分级标准为参考,对各指标进行分级演绎,制定出综合分级表,为伤员损伤程度的分级标准化提供一定的参考,研究结果有助于震后应急救援资源配置的优化,进而提高整体救援效率。     

基于LMDI的我国能源消费因素分解研究

经济飞速发展使我国能源消费急剧增长,能源消费与能源供给、环境污染矛盾日益突出。在分析我国能源消费和能源消费强度变化趋势的基础上,运用LMDI法将我国1996--2010年能源消费变化分解为产出效应、结构效应和强度效应,探讨产出提高、结构调整、效率提高对我国能源消费和能源强度的影响。结果显示,生产规模扩大对能源消费起到正向的拉动作用,结构调整对缓解能源消费增长还有较大的上升空间,能源强度对能源消费的抑制效应自“十一五”期间起作用逐步显现。     

朝阳开发区造纸工业园建设可持续发展研究与实践

针对朝阳开发区造纸工业园控制性详细规划,采用层次分析法构建规划环境影响评价指标体系,在此基础上,分析朝阳开发区造纸工业园建设的可持续发展水平,为朝阳开发区造纸工业园建设环境决策的科学性提供技术依据。朝阳开发区造纸工业园区域发展规划实施后,规划各期区域整体可持续发展水平基本保持稳定,均为Ⅲ级,即可持续发展水平为中等。经济子系统和社会子系统可持续发展水平各期逐渐下降,而环境子系统可持续发展水平各期呈上升趋势。这说明,随着园区的进一步发展,其环境效益日益明显。     

基于能值理论的中国矿业城市发展程度分析

矿业城市是我国城市的重要组成部分,其发展程度评价与分析一直是矿业可持续发展领域的研究热点之一。如何运用科学合理的评价理论和指标体系,对矿业城市的发展程度进行评价分析,进而指导矿业城市发展显得尤为重要。本文以能值理论为基础,将其方法、基本步骤和评价指标引入到矿业城市发展评价中,提出了矿业城市发展程度的能值分析方法,建立了能值分析步骤,即通过对矿业城市进行系统的分析,构建中国矿业城市发展的能值评价指标体系,计算各个矿业城市的能值指标值,进而对不同类型的矿业城市及其与其他区域之间的能值指标值进行对比分析,有效地解决了传统评价方法在不同类型矿业城市及与其他区域之间不易进行发展对比评价的缺陷。最后通过收集整理中国矿业城市2006年度发展数据,运用能值分析方法计算其能值指标值,对其发展程度进行对比分析,从而表明该评价方法是可行的,同时也为我国制定矿业城市可持续发展策略提供科学指导。     

Impact of Cloud on Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange of Alpine Meadow in Tibetan Plateau

Meteorological elements and CO2 fluxes over alpine meadow ecosystem were observed continuously from 2004 to 2005in Damxung Alpine Meadow Flux Station,China Flux Network.Based on the eddy covariance CO2 fluxes and meteorological data obtained,the relationships among the CO2 fluxes,the cloud amount,and the meteorological factors in alpine meadow ecosystem were explored and analyzed.Some conclusions can be drawn from the discussion with previous researches as following:(1)the cloud amount can affect the net ecosystem CO2 exchange(NEE)of alpine meadow on Tibetan Plateau;(2)the soil temperature sensitive to the cloud amount,is a major environmental controlling factor for NEE,and closely relates to the maximum of NEE.In the morning period with large cloud amount,the NEE reaches its maximum when the clearness index ranges from 0.5 to 0.7; yet in the afternoon it comes to the maximum with the index from 0.2 to 0.35.The span of soil temperature covers from 12 to 15℃ as the NEE at its highest;(3)the scatterplots between NEE and photosynthetic available radiation(PAR)was a significant inverse triangle in the clear day,two different kinds of concave curves in the cloudy day,and strongly convergent rectangular hyperbola in the overcast day.These differences were controlled by the changes of light radiation and soil temperature.     

昆山市22年来耕地流失研究

以昆山市1985～2006年共22a间的耕地面积变化及与之相关的总户籍人口、非农业人口、第一产业从业人口、地区生产总值、人均地区生产总值、第一产业生产总值、第二产业生产总值、粮食总产量和社会固定资产投资等9种社会经济指标为研究对象,采用变化率相关分析、主成分阶段分类等新方法对目前耕地流失研究中常用的相关分析、主成分分析等数学方法进行改进。研究结果表明:(1)新方法在耕地流失主要驱动因素分析和阶段划分方面具有独特的优势,同时能够通过回归方程的验证,所得结论可信度较高;(2)昆山市耕地流失的首要驱动因素为以人均地区生产总值为代表的社会经济水平的提高,同时人口增长和第二产业的发展加剧了耕地流失状况;(3)昆山市耕地流失按照所受压力对农业发展的影响可以分为3个阶段,分别为1985～1994年的未限制阶段、1995～1997年制约平衡阶段和1998～2006年限制阻碍阶段。     

基于聚类分析和水质标识指数的水质评价方法

为探讨一种适用于大尺度、多断面和长时间的水质评价方法,用层次聚类分析将2006~2008年海河5个监测断面的165个水质样本分为20组,并用方差分析验证了结果的可靠性。用综合水质标识指数表示水质样本的综合特征,与单因子评价法相比,该方法充分考虑了最差水质因子的影响,避免了单因子评价法以偏概全的缺陷,且分辨率高。将评价结果分解到各断面,结果表明:密云水库、官厅水库和于桥水库的水质处于II~III类水之间,可满足作为饮用水水源水的要求,三岔口断面大部分时间为IV~V类水,张家口八号桥断面全年有6个月以上水质属于劣V类。     

重大危险设备的确定及其失效后果严重度分析

采用火灾、爆炸危险指数(F&EI)方法对石化设备的危险性进行评价,根据计算设备的危险指数值来确定其是否为重大危险设备;应用模糊综合评价方法对石化装置失效后果严重程度进行综合评价研究,建立了石化装置失效后果严重程度的综合评价指标体系;采用定性与定量相结合的层次分析法计算评价因素的权重,运用模糊综合评判理论,提出失效后果严重度的二级模糊综合评价方法,实现对其失效后果严重度的综合评判。实例表明:模糊综合评价方法可操作性强、效果较好,可在石化装置失效后果严重度评价中广泛应用。