漳州大气PM2.5污染特征与区域传输影响分析

利用多点位三维受体模型与后向轨迹模型,研究了漳州市近海与城区两个代表性点位不同季节不同来向气团所载带的PM_(2.5)浓度、化学组分及污染源贡献特征。结果表明:近海与城区两点位PM_(2.5)质量浓度在季节变化上均为夏季低,冬季高(近海点位夏季37.3μg/m~3,冬季52.1μg/m~3;城区点位夏季38.5μg/m~3,冬季86.2μg/m~3);总体而言,近海点位主要受本地气团以及江苏-浙江来向气团影响,城区点位主要受广东省及其近海来向气团影响。在PM_(2.5)化学组成上,近海点位二次无机组分SO_4~(2-)、NO_3~-、NH_4~+均高于城区点位,而城区点位秋季二次有机污染明显高于近海点位。因受河口地形影响,近海点位冬季PM_(2.5)各化学组分均高于城区点位。两点位源解析结果存在季节性差异。在近海点位,春冬季二次无机源贡献最大,夏秋季二次有机源贡献最大;在城区点位,春季建筑尘、夏季二次有机源、秋季地壳尘、冬季二次无机源占比最大。不同来向气团对两点位四季PM_(2.5)分担率分别为:近海点位春季NNE来向的二次无机源(20.5%)、夏季SW来向的二次有机源(14.3%)、秋季NNE来向的二次有机源(10.0%)、冬季NE来向的二次无机源(24.2%);城区点位春季NNE来向的建筑尘(18.0%)、夏季WSW来向的二次有机源(15.9%)、秋季NNE来向的地壳尘(15.4%)、冬季NNE来向的二次无机源(24.3%)。     

气象条件对天津冬季低层大气中PAN浓度的影响

采用在线仪器监测分析2017年冬季天津气象铁塔220m观测平台大气中过氧乙酰硝酸酯（PAN）的体积浓度,并结合污染物资料、气象观测资料和后向轨迹分析造成PAN高值的影响因素.观测期间天津城区大气中PAN的体积浓度平均值为（0.57±0.54）×10^-9,PAN体积浓度存在2个峰值,大体上对应着2次重污染过程.PAN与O₃间不存在明显的相关性,但与PM_2.5质量浓度相关性较好,表明光化学反应并非影响冬季PAN浓度的唯一因素,后向轨迹的聚类分析以及改进的静稳指数显示远距离输送和本地积累对PAN浓度的时空分布发挥了较大作用.对观测期间一次重污染天气过程中温度、相对湿度和风的垂直廓线,以及混合层厚度等气象条件的分析表明,PAN浓度上升既受到区域输送影响,也与静稳天气下的污染物积累有关.     

Comparison of constant volume balloons, model trajectories and tracer transport during ETEX

In the field phases of the European Tracer EXperiment (ETEX), an inert tracer was released for 12 h into the atmosphere and samples taken at several locations downwind. During the same time, several Constant Volume Balloons (CVB) (10 and 6 for ETEX first and second release, respectively) were launched into different altitudes and followed as far as 21–188 km, to indicate the initial dispersion directions of the tracer puff. A model simulating the CVB behaviour in hydrostatic meso-scale model forecasts is applied to ETEX data to demonstrate its capability to predict the tracer puff mean axis over long distances (−2000 km). CVB model results are first compared to air parcels trajectories and 2D (i.e. isentropic, isobaric and isodensity) trajectories. Then they are compared to the measured CVB trajectories and finally to the tracer puff trajectories. As expected, the CVB model and isodensity model trajectories are found to be identical. The 16 CVBs calculated trajectories nearly overlap the real ones over 21–188 km with mean absolute horizontal transport deviations less than 20 km (average value of 8.2 km). The corresponding relative transport deviations are less than 45% with an average value of 20.6%. Better predictions are obtained for the ETEX second release. During the 60 h following ETEX’s first release start, the simulated CVBs are mainly found in the area of the maximum surface concentrations of the released tracer, up to 2000 km. Up to 36 h after ETEX second tracer release start, the simulated CVB trajectories predict well the mean axis of the tracer puff, but failed later.     

2022年青岛市沿海区域臭氧污染特征及传输影响分析

基于2022年1—12月青岛市沿海区域臭氧（O₃）自动监测数据和气象观测资料,对O₃污染变化特征及影响因素进行了分析,结合后向轨迹聚类与潜在源区分析等方法,对O₃外来输送通道及潜在源分布情况进行分析研究。结果表明：青岛市沿海区域O₃污染主要集中在4—10月份,日变化特征呈单峰单谷趋势,峰值出现在15：00—16：00;气象因素中,地面短波辐射对O₃浓度变化的相对贡献最大,偏南风易导致O₃污染;受二氧化氮（NO₂）滴定作用以及海陆风转换影响,沿海区域O₃峰值与谷值均滞后青岛城区1 h左右;O₃生成整体处于VOCs控制区,1-丁烯、正丁烷与异戊烷是O₃污染期间导致O₃浓度上升的关键组分;O₃污染的主要潜在源区为长三角北部和黄海近岸海域,以及山东中南部地区。     

A NUMERICAL ESTUARINE FLOW MODEL1

A novel estuarine flow model is proposed. It provides some two-dimensional features while using an essentially one-dimensional approach. The model is applied to the Upper Delaware Estuary, and is shown to match available field data with acceptable accuracy. The model is shown to be numerically stable and reasonably mass conservative.     

Land-Cover Change Trajectories in Northern Ghana

Land-cover change trajectories are an emergent property of complex human–environment systems such as the land-use system. An understanding of the factors responsible for land change trajectories is fundamental for land-use planning and the development of land-related policies. The aims of this study were to characterize and identify the spatial determinants of agricultural land-cover change trajectories in northern Ghana. Land-cover change trajectories were defined using land-cover maps prepared from Landsat Thematic Mapper dataset acquired in 1984, 1992, and 1999. Binary logistic regression was used to model the probability of observing the trajectories as a function of spatially explicit biophysical and socioeconomic independent variables. Population densities generally increased along the continuum of land-use intensity, whereas distance from market and roads generally decreased along this continuum. Apparently, roads and market serve as incentives for settlement and agricultural land use. An increase in population density is an important spatial determinant only for trajectories where the dominant change process is agricultural extensification. A major response to population growth is an increase in cultivation frequency around the main market. Agricultural intensification is highly sensitive to accessibility by roads. The increase in land-use intensity is also associated with low soil quality. These results suggest the need for policies to restore soil fertility for agricultural sustainability. The models also provide a means for identifying functional relationships for in-depth analyses of land-use change in Ghana.     

Backward linkage development in the South African PGM industry: A case study

Backward linkages refer to the various inter-firm relationships connecting an industry with its supply chain. Demand–supply interactions between producer firms and suppliers of original equipment, strategic inputs, components and specialised services have played an important role in the evolution of the South African mining sector, contributing indirectly to employment creation, new business growth and expansion, improved efficiency of mining operations, and new knowledge generation. This paper presents a case study of backward linkage development in the South African platinum group metals (PGM) industry and draws on the findings from a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the sector undertaken in 2007. A profile of the supply chain is provided and an assessment made of the strength and sustainability of existing linkages.     

2021年青岛市一次PM_(2.5)和沙尘混合空气污染过程分析

以2021年3月青岛市空气自动站监测数据为依据,借助环境气象激光雷达、气溶胶激光雷达、在线离子色谱仪等技术手段,并利用后向轨迹模式(HYSPLIT)对青岛市一次PM_(2.5)和沙尘混合空气污染过程、气象条件、颗粒物组成以及传输路径等进行了综合分析。结果表明:静小风、湿度大、垂直方向逆温以及高空多次向近地面的污染物输送是第1阶段PM_(2.5)污染的主要原因,NO^(-)_(3)、SO^(2-)_(4)、NH^(+)_(4)浓度分别占水溶性离子浓度总和的51.7%,24.8%,22.4%,三者之和占ρ(PM_(2.5))的52.3%,机动车源、工业源和燃烧源贡献较大,其中尤以机动车源影响最显著;第2阶段各子站颗粒物浓度变化呈现明显的传输特征,PM_(2.5)中Ca^(2+)浓度升至第1阶段的6倍,沙尘源影响显著,污染气团主要来自蒙古国和我国内蒙古,前期由西北地区直接到达青岛,后期是经渤海湾、烟台到达青岛东南海域,最后回流至青岛;冷高压强度较弱导致近地面水平扩散条件不利,ρ(PM_(10))长时间维持在较高水平。     

The mining industry in the European Union: Analysis of inter-industry linkages using input–output analysis

Input–output modelling is a useful tool in policy analysis and economic planning. This methodology is used to detect the inter-industry linkages known as forward and backward linkages. Examination of these measures provides one mechanism for identifying “key” or “leading” sectors. The main objective of this paper is to measure the linkages of the mining and quarrying industry in the European Union (EU) and to determine if any of the industry subsectors can be considered key sectors. The paper shows that three subsectors can be considered key sectors: the mining of coal and lignite and extraction of peat in Germany; mining of metal ores in Sweden; and other mining and quarrying in Austria, Denmark and Spain. These sectors are more stimulated by overall industry growth than other sectors and have greater impacts in terms of investment expenditures on the national economy than other sectors. The values of the forward and backward linkages show that the mining and quarrying is an industry that would be stimulated by an increase in a regional economy's production more than other sectors, while an increase in the mining and quarrying industry's output would not stimulate this regional economy more than an increase in other sectors.     

乐山市2016年冬季颗粒物重污染过程与输送路径及潜在源区

对乐山市2016年12月—2017年2月的大气污染特征及气象条件进行研究分析,并结合HYSPLIT（后向轨迹模式）,用聚类方法、PSCF（潜在源贡献因子法）、CWT（浓度权重轨迹分析法）分别模拟了研究期间PM_2.5的主要潜在源区.结果表明:研究期间,乐山市以PM_2.5污染为主.因风速低、无降水、相对湿度高、边界层高度降低等原因,使乐山市发生了一次持续时间较长的重污染过程（2017年1月1—7日）,该过程二次污染物累积特征较为明显;春节期间,因烟花爆竹集中燃放产生的大量污染物使乐山市出现了一次严重污染（2017年1月28日）,ρ（PM_2.5）日均值达358 μg/m3.乐山市复杂的地形引起的热力差异有利于局地环流的生成与发展,山谷风的存在可能是造成夜间乐山市郊区站点ρ（PM_2.5）高于城区站点的主要原因.结合后向轨迹与ρ（PM_2.5）日均值分析发现,来自盆地内部的气流（占比为28.57%）对乐山市空气质量产生的影响最大.乐山市东部边界附近、宜宾市西北部、自贡市南部等地对乐山市PM_2.5的潜在源贡献（WPSCF）在0.96以上,说明这些地区是研究期间影响乐山市ρ（PM_2.5）的重要潜在源区,模型的模拟结果与风向、风速、ρ（PM_2.5）监测值插值结果相符.研究显示,乐山市大气污染过程除了与在不利气象条件下污染物的累积有关外,区域污染物的输送贡献也不容忽视.