河流水环境有机污染物的自组织预测模型及应用

自组织预测模型是前苏联学者伊万年科提出的一种非线性建模预测方法,它能有效地解决复杂非线性系统的数据处理和建模问题。该文应用它进行水环境有机污染物预测,以实际监测数据为基础,建立了一个河流有机物浓度预测的自组织模型,其检验样本的预测误差在５％以内      

Development of a novel mathematical model using a group contribution method for prediction of ionic liquid toxicities

A new mathematical model has been developed that expresses the toxicities (EC₅₀ values) of a wide variety of ionic liquids (ILs) towards the freshwater flea Daphnia magna by means of a quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR). The data were analyzed using summed contributions from the cations, their alkyl substituents and anions. The model employed multiple linear regression analysis with polynomial model using the MATLAB software. The model predicted IL toxicities with R² = 0.974 and standard error of estimate of 0.028. This model affords a practical, cost-effective and convenient alternative to experimental ecotoxicological assessment of many ILs.     

成都市城区春节期间燃放烟花爆竹对空气质量的影响

利用空气质量自动监测系统分析了2013年春节期间成都市城区的SO2、NO2、CO、O3、PM10及PM2.5的浓度值,发现烟花爆竹的燃放对SO2、NO2、PM10及PM2.5的浓度有较大影响。     

珠江三角洲火电群SO2污染及防治对策研究

在已有的大气环境质量资料和污染源排放资料基础上，用建立的珠江三角洲空气污染数值模式，经验证，计算了珠江三角洲２０００年，２０１０年的电力工业的ＳＯ２污染和对３个污染防治对策方案进行了分析，认为只有采取适当的限制燃料含硫量和大型燃煤电厂烟气脱硫等防治措施，才能控制ＳＯ２污染加重的趋势。     

天津春节期间烟花爆竹燃放对空气质量的影响

为明晰春节期间烟花爆竹燃放对大气环境的影响,利用天津地区2016年和2017年春节期间（除夕至农历十五,公历2016年2月7-22日、2017年1月27日-2月11日）大气污染物质量浓度的监测数据和气象观测资料,对这一时期大气污染物质量浓度的变化规律进行分析.结果表明:天津春节期间大气颗粒物质量浓度峰值均出现在初一的00:00-01:00.烟花爆竹燃放对ρ（PM₁₀）、ρ（PM_2.5）和ρ（SO₂）影响较大,尤其是对地面污染物质量浓度影响最大,并且对ρ（PM_2.5）和ρ（PM₁₀）的影响高度相对增高,但对ρ（NO₂）的实时影响最小.初一00:00-00:01,ρ（PM₁₀）、ρ（PM_2.5）、ρ（SO₂）和ρ（NO₂）分别增加了305、178、80和7 μg/m3.烟花爆竹燃放使ρ（PM_2.5）和ρ（PM₁₀）的日变化曲线较非春节期间波动性增强,主峰值区（20:00-翌日01:00）污染物质量浓度升高和出现的时间延后;ρ（SO₂）主峰值出现时段由09:00-10:00变为00:00左右,并且其峰值剧增.烟花爆竹燃放使夜间空气中ρ（PM_2.5）上升,导致ρ（PM_2.5）在ρ（PM₁₀）的占比显著升高.2016年和2017年春节期间,PM_2.5、PM₁₀和SO₂的最大小时质量浓度及其变化率均高于春节前后（除夕前15 d和农历十五后15 d）,而NO₂和CO的最大小时质量浓度及其变化率则低于春节前后.2016年和2017年除夕ρ（PM_2.5）的半衰期分别为4.7和3.6 h.研究显示,即使在有利于扩散的气象条件下,烟花爆竹燃放仍可使天津地区ρ（PM₁₀）、ρ（PM_2.5）和ρ（SO₂）短时迅速增大,污染物质量浓度主峰值均出现在夜间,ρ（PM_2.5）的半衰期介于3~5 h.      

2020年春节期间天津市重污染天气污染特征分析

为了解春节期间重污染天气污染特征,基于城区点位2020年1月高时间分辨率的在线监测数据,开展天津市春节期间重污染分析.结果表明：区域污染物输送叠加本地污染物排放和不利气象条件导致春节重污染的发生,重污染期间天津市平均风速为0.97 m·s^-1,平均相对湿度为70%左右,边界层高度为210 m,水平和垂直扩散条件均较差.春节重污染期间,天津市PM_2.5、SO₂、NO₂和CO平均浓度分别为219、14、46 μg·m^-3和1.9 mg·m^-3,与春节前重污染相比,春节重污染期间污染程度有所降低,尤其是NO₂浓度下降明显.PM_2.5浓度空间分布表明,天津远郊区依然存在烟花爆竹燃放情况.春节重污染期间,城区PM_2.5中主要化学组分为二次无机离子（NO₃^-、SO₄^2-和NH₄⁺）、OC、K⁺和Cl^-,平均浓度分别为96.4、22.5、9.5和8.9 μg·m^-3,在PM_2.5中占比分别为41.3%、9.7%、4.1%和3.8%.与春节前重污染相比,受移动源减少、工业企业排放降低、工地停工影响,春节重污染期间NO₃^-、SO₄^2-、NH₄⁺、EC和Ca²⁺浓度及其在PM_2.5中占比明显下降;受烟花爆竹燃放影响,OC、K⁺、Cl^-和Mg²⁺浓度及其在PM_2.5中占比均上升.与清洁天气相比,春节重污染期间PM_2.5中二次无机化学转化明显增强.PMF解析结果表明,春节重污染期间,天津市城区PM_2.5的主要来源为二次无机盐、燃煤和工业、烟花爆竹及生物质燃烧、机动车和扬尘,贡献分担率分别为40.1%、30.6%、20.6%、6.9%和1.8%.与春节前重污染相比,春节重污染期间二次无机盐、机动车和扬尘贡献率分别下降25.5%、62.9%、71.4%,燃煤和工业贡献率上升51.5%,烟花爆竹及生物质燃烧源显著上升.无论是重污染还是非重污染,常态化还是特殊时期,二次无机盐、燃煤和工业排放始终是天津市PM_2.5最主要的来源,产业结构和能源结构的调整始终是天津大气污染防治的主要方向.     

春节燃放爆竹对大气气溶胶水溶性无机离子的影响

2007年冬季在兰州市区进行了连续30天的大气气溶胶观测取样,重点对春节燃放与非燃放烟花爆竹期间,大气气溶胶水溶性阴离子(F-、Cl-、NO2-、Br-、NO3-、PO34-、SO23-、SO24-)和水溶性阳离子(Li+、Na+、NH4+、K+、Mg2+、Ca2+)的污染状况做了研究。结果显示:春节燃放烟花爆竹会使大气污染加重,大气气溶胶质量浓度日均值比非燃放期上升了22.4%,其中使气溶胶粗颗粒(TSP)上升5.5%,气溶胶细颗粒(PM10)上升55.1%,呈细粒污染加重现象。部分水溶性离子浓度在燃放期间明显升高。上升幅度最大的是K+,其次为SO32-、NO3-、NH4+、SO42-、Cl-、F-、Mg2+、Li+、NO2-等离子。除夕夜采集的大气气溶胶样品,粗细颗粒中K+浓度分别为27.413μg/m3和26.180μg/m3,比非燃放期平均含量高出10.70倍和11.52倍。     

春节期间烟花爆竹燃放对哈尔滨市区空气质量的影响

为研究烟花爆竹燃放对哈尔滨市区空气质量的影响,及时捕捉污染过程的变化趋势并分析污染的成因,2016年2月7—9日对哈尔滨市区内4个监测点位(省监测站、松北商大、动力和平路和省农科院)颗粒物浓度变化趋势进行解析,同时结合单颗粒气溶胶飞行质谱仪、3D可视激光雷达等相关仪器分析结果进一步确定污染成因。结果表明,连续监测期间4个监测点位均出现重度污染时段,且与除夕夜烟花爆竹集中燃放时间高度吻合,说明烟花爆竹的集中燃放会在短时间内造成严重的大气污染;同时烟花爆竹的燃放会对颗粒物化学组分造成明显的影响,受影响最大的是Mg~(2+)和Cl~-,且在燃放期有机碳、元素碳、混合碳占比升高。     

三峡175米蓄水期间春季嘉陵江出口段藻类变化

为认识三峡大坝175m蓄水对春季嘉陵江藻类的影响,开展了春季嘉陵江出口段藻类活动频繁时期的现场调研。结果表明,与2007年春季相比,三峡大坝175m实验性蓄水期间,2009年春季嘉陵江出口段水位上涨、流速减缓、水体容量增大,营养盐受到一定程度稀释;硅藻为嘉陵江出口段绝对优势藻种,其中星肋小环藻与极小冠盘藻为水华藻种,星肋小环藻具有快速增长性,流速变缓不利于硅藻繁殖,致使总藻密度降低,总藻种数增加,其中绿、蓝、硅藻增加百分比较大,藻类多样性增大。     

Conspecific threat,predation avoidance,and resource defense: implications for grouping in langurs

Data on langur (Presbytis entellus) populations were gathered from the literature to test the importance of three selective pressures in determining group size and composition: predation pressure, intergroup resource defense, and conspecific threat. There were no detectable difference in the size of groups in populations facing nearly intact predator communities compared to those populations where predators were severely reduced in number or absent, although there was a trend for the number of adult males per group to increase in areas with nearly intact predator communities. Using population density as an indirect measure of the frequency of intrusions into a group’s home range and thereby as an index of the demographic pressure favoring resource defense, we predicted that higher densities would result in larger defensive coalitions and higher numbers of females per group. This prediction was not upheld. Our third selective pressure, conspecific threat, encompasses those selective forces resulting from physical attack on females, infants, and juveniles. Our index of conspecific threat uses the number of non-group males divided by the number of bisexual groups, because in langurs, the major source of conspecific threat derives from non-group males who, following group take-over, kill infants, wound females, and expel juveniles from groups. This index of conspecific threat was strongly related to the mean number of resident females, was weakly related to the mean group size, but was not related to the number of males in the group. In addition, as predicted, populations with a high index of conspecific threat had higher levels of juvenile expulsion. These analyses were corroborated by a simulation model which used a computer-generated series of null populations to calculate expected slopes of immatures regressed on adult females. These randomly generated populations, matched to means and ranges of real populations, allowed us to determine if deviations of the observed slopes from the expected null slopes could be explained by variation in predation pressure, population density, or conspecific threat. We found no evidence that predation pressure was associated with decreases in immature survival in smaller groups, as would be predicted by the predation-avoidance hypothesis. We found no evidence that immature survival was compromised by small group size in high-density populations, as would be predicted by the resource-defense hypothesis. However, as the index of conspecific threat increased, groups with larger numbers of females were more successful than groups with fewer females in reducing mortality or expulsion of immatures. Overall, conspecific threat received the strongest support as a selective pressure influencing langur group size and composition, suggesting that this selective pressure should be evaluated more widely as a factor influencing composition of animal groups. Received: 23 January 1995/Accepted after revision: 18 February 1996