我国《国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》 对安全生产战略影响量化分析

安全生产与经济社会发展密切相关,历年国家五年规划纲要所明确的一系列经济社会发展体制机制改革和政策措施实施,都直接或间接影响着安全发展进程与成效。在对我国《“十三五”规划纲要》中283项相关事项梳理的基础上,坚持政策评估和风险评价相结合的原则,采用定性和定量相结合的方法,邀请专家学者从机遇、挑战、积极影响、消极影响4个维度,分重大、较大、一般3个层级对相关事项进行逐项量化评估。根据评估结果和量化计算模型,就《“十三五”规划纲要》对安全生产可能产生的整体战略影响进行了深入分析,并与《“十二五”规划纲要》影响进行比对,给出了有关宏观决策建议。     

典型大宗工业固体废物产生现状分析及产生量预测

针对大宗工业固体废物产生量大、历史堆存量多的问题,基于历史年份产废量和行业贡献度分析结果,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测了2021–2025年特定行业典型大宗工业固体废物产生量。结果表明,尾矿、粉煤灰、煤矸石、冶炼废渣、炉渣、脱硫石膏等6种典型大宗工业固体废物普遍集中产生于1~2个特定行业,且特定行业的贡献程度普遍超过80％。到2025年,我国金属矿采选业尾矿,电力、热力生产和供应业粉煤灰,煤炭开采和洗选业煤矸石,黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业冶炼废渣,电力、热力生产和供应业炉渣及脱硫石膏产生量将分别达到13.46×10¹¹、6.45×10¹¹、15.86×10¹¹、6.21×10¹¹、2.57×10¹¹和2.50×10¹¹ kg,较2019年产生量分别增长55％、39％、238％、73％、52％和131％。建议充分考虑以采矿、冶金、电力、热力等产废量较大的行业为治理重点,并合理规划大宗工业固体废物利用处置设施布局和能力建设。本研究结果可为“十四五”时期深入开展“无废城市”建设,科学制订产废行业环境管理政策提供参考。     

Evaluating Areas of High Conservation Value in Western Oregon with a Decision‐Support Model

Abstract: The Northwest Forest Plan was implemented in 1994 to protect habitat for species associated with old‐growth forests, including Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentailis caurina) in Washington, Oregon, and northern California (U.S.A.). Nevertheless, 10‐year monitoring data indicate mixed success in meeting the ecological goals of the plan. We used the ecosystem management decision‐support model to evaluate terrestrial and aquatic habitats across the landscape on the basis of ecological objectives of the Northwest Forest Plan, which included maintenance of late‐successional and old‐growth forest, recovery, and maintenance of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), and viability of Northern Spotted Owls. Areas of the landscape that contained habitat characteristics that supported these objectives were considered of high conservation value. We used the model to evaluate ecological condition of each of the 36, 180 township and range sections of the study area. Eighteen percent of the study area was identified as habitat of high conservation value. These areas were mostly on public lands. Many of the sections that contained habitat of exceptional conservation value were on Bureau of Land Management land that has been considered for management‐plan revisions to increase timber harvests. The results of our model can be used to guide future land management in the Northwest Forest Plan area, and illustrate how decision‐support models can help land managers develop strategies to better meet their goals.     

中国“十四五”绿色消费衡量指标体系构建与战略展望

“十四五”期间,消费领域的绿色转型对推动经济社会整体绿色转型意义重大。本文通过借鉴国内外绿色消费衡量指标的理论研究与实践经验,探索构建了反映消费产品、消费行为、消费结果绿色,同时又涵盖衣、食、住、用、行等当前消费重点领域的绿色消费衡量指标体系。在此基础上,对绿色消费的现实状况以及变化趋势进行了分析,提出了“十四五”中国推动绿色消费的战略展望,为“十四五”时期中国推进绿色消费工作提供宏观决策参考。     

Needs of communications with general public about the potential risk of electromagnetic fields and methods for achieving this goal

In the recent years concerns whether exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) from base station antennae can cause adverse health effects are grown. Great attention is paid on risk of EMF exposure to people living in a close proximity of base stations. In this issue, a point of interest is the personnel mounting, adjusting and maintaining base stations. Their working tasks require stay in high EMF levels’ conditions. There are only few studies concerning this specific occupational group. The results from our previous investigation (Zaryabova and Israel 2006) show that in␣many cases on performing some specific tasks operators are overexposed according to our national legislation, and ICNIRP guidelines. Here, we present an extended study covering more base stations and more precise scenario for performed tasks and working positions. Results of exposure assessment are presented. They include energetic load calculations on the basis of Bulgarian national legislation, and the corresponding SAR values. Data are used to determine permissible time duration for each particular work operation and served as a base for limiting the exposure and proposal for protective measures for the personnel.     

自然灾害基本定义的探讨

自然灾害的研究,正在变为一门热门的学科.然而,大多数人是通过举例来回答"什么是自然灾害?"这一问题,一些学者则干脆对此避而不谈.显然,如果对"自然灾害"这一概念没有严格的定义,如果人们只热衷于提出各种概念模型,热衷于案例分析,则"自然灾害学"就很难上升为一门科学内核清楚的学科.从分析定义的本质人手,梳理出下定义的4条规则,指出了现有5个自然灾害定义的不足之处,建议了一个自然灾害的基本定义,并用它分别对<国家综合减灾"十一五"规划>中提及的13种自然灾害进行了界定.     

西藏自治区“十二五”和“十三五”环境空气质量变化特征

"十二五"以来中国先后颁布了一系列大气污染防治政策并实施相应的大气污染治理措施以提高环境空气质量。为研究西藏自治区"十二五"(2011-2015年)和"十三五"(2016 -2020年)时期环境空气质量变化状况,评估大气污染防治措施实施效果,笔者对2011-2020年西藏自治区7个城市(地区)主要大气污染物浓度和优良天数比例变化进行分析。结果表明:随着一系列大气污染防治措施的实施,西藏自治区环境空气质量显著提升,与"十二五"时期相比,"十三五"时期西藏自治区年平均优良天数比例由97.5%±2.0%提升至99.3%±0.4%,SO₂、 NO₂、 PM₁₀、 PM_2.5浓度年均值和CO 浓度第95百分位数均呈下降趋势,其中CO、PM₁₀和PM_2.5浓度下降幅度较大,O₃日最大8h滑动平均值第90百分位数略有上升。西藏自治区环境空气质量与人口、经济发展程度呈负相关关系。受污染源排放、气象条件和区域传输等因素影响,西藏自治区O₃浓度春、夏季较高,而其余污染物浓度冬季较高。     

生态适宜度评价在工业园区规划环评中的应用

从工业生态学的原理出发,结合规划环评的特点,以工业园区为研究对象,在规划环境影响评价中引入土地利用生态适宜度的评价方法,在将多个土地利用生态适宜度评价引入工业因区规划环境影响评价工作的实践基础上,建立了既能满足环境管理的要求,又具有可操作性的三级土地利用生态适宜度评价指标体系,包括环境空气、声环境等9项自然生态指标和集中供热、污水处理厂等9项人文生态指标,实现了对工业园区土地利用生态适宜度的定量评价,为工业园区的合理规划提供决策依据。     

输变电电网规划环境影响评价思路实践与探讨

目前我国电源发展规划的环境影响评价工作已经开展,收到了较好的效果。但是对于电网规划的环境影响评价工作还没有很深入地进行。以《南京电网＂十一五＂发展规划及2020年远景目标环评》电网规划环评为案例,对如何组织电网规划环境影响评价思路、评价体系和内容框架等内容进行讨论。     

通信基站电磁辐射信访的情况分析和处理对策——以深圳市为例

根据深圳市近年来通信基站电磁辐射信访投诉的情况,结合马斯洛需求层次理论对通信基站信访投诉情况进行分析,将通信基站信访投诉抱怨等级划分为3类。再引入世界卫生组织关于电磁场风险沟通的建议和对电磁辐射风险沟通4要素的研究讨论,为3类通信基站信访投诉提供科学有效的处理对策。