Patch-Occupancy Modeling as a Method for Monitoring Changes in Forest Floristics: a Case Study in Southeastern Australia

Abstract:  The ability to monitor changes in biodiversity is fundamental to demonstrating sustainable management practices of natural resources. Disturbance studies generally focus on responses at the plot scale, whereas landscape-scale responses are directly relevant to the development of sustainable forest management. Modeling changes in occupancy is one way to monitor landscape-scale responses. We used understory vegetation data collected over 16 years from a long-term study site in southeastern Australia. The site was subject to timber harvesting and frequent prescribed burning. We used occupancy models to examine the impacts of these disturbances on the distribution of 50 species of plants during the study. Timber harvesting influenced the distribution of 9 species, but these effects of harvesting were generally lost within 14 years. Repeated prescribed fire affected 22 species, but the heterogeneity of the burns reduced the predicted negative effects. Twenty-two species decreased over time independent of treatment, and only 5 species increased over time. These changes probably represent a natural response to a wildfire that occurred in 1973, 13 years before the study began. Occupancy modeling is a useful and flexible technique for analyzing monitoring data and it may also be suitable for inclusion within an adaptive-management framework for forest management.     

The application of artificial neural networks to flow and phosphorus dynamics in small streams on the Boreal Plain,with emphasis on the role of wetlands

Historically, management strategies in Canada's boreal forest have focused on forest polygons and terrestrial biodiversity to address ecological considerations in forest management. The Forest Watershed and Riparian Disturbance (FORWARD) project examines the problem from a watershed perspective rather than a forest polygon viewpoint. The main objective of this study was to devise an artificial neural network (ANN) modeling tool that can predict flow and total phosphorus (TP) concentration for ungauged watersheds (where daily flow is not monitored). This dictates that all inputs should be easily accessed via a public domain database, like the Environment Canada weather database, without the need to install flow gauges in each modeled watershed. Daily flow and TP concentration for two of the project watersheds were modeled using ANNs. The two watersheds (1A Creek, 5.1 km² and Willow Creek, 15.6 km²) were chosen to reflect variations in wetland area and composition in the study area. Flow was modeled with a feed-forward multilayer perceptron ANN trained with the error back-propagation algorithm. Simulated values for flow were then used, as inputs, to model TP concentration using the same neural networks algorithm. One hidden layer with three slabs; each operating with a different activation function was utilized to simulate the conceptual differences between base flow, snowmelt, and storm events. Time domain analysis was conducted to identify possible model time-lagged inputs reflecting the time dependency of the modeled variables. Spectral analysis was used to address data hystereses. Our results highlight the capabilities of ANN in modeling complex ecosystems and highly correlated variables. Results also indicated that more research towards the phosphorus dynamics in wetlands is required to better represent the impact of wetland area and composition on the water-phase phosphorus in ANN modeling.     

ICT reuse in socio-economic enterprises

In Europe, socio-economic enterprises such as charities, voluntary organisations and not-for-profit companies are involved in the repair, refurbishment and reuse of various products. This paper characterises and analyses the operations of socio-economic enterprises that are involved in the reuse of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) equipment. Using findings from a survey, the paper specifically analyses the reuse activities of socio-economic enterprises in the UK from which Europe-wide conclusions are drawn. The amount of ICT products handled by the reuse organisations is quantified and potential barriers and opportunities to their operations are analysed. By-products from reuse activities are discussed and recommendations to improve reuse activities are provided. The most common ICT products dealt with by socio-economic enterprises are computers and related equipment. In the UK in 2010, an estimated 143,750 appliances were reused. However, due to limitations in data, it is difficult to compare this number to the amount of new appliances that entered the UK market or the amount of waste electrical and electronic equipment generated in the same period. Difficulties in marketing products and numerous legislative requirements are the most common barriers to reuse operations. Despite various constraints, it is clear that organisations involved in reuse of ICT could contribute significantly to resource efficiency and a circular economy. It is suggested that clustering of their operations into “reuse parks” would enhance both their profile and their products. Reuse parks would also improve consumer confidence in and subsequently sales of the products. Further, it is advocated that industrial networking opportunities for the exchange of by-products resulting from the organisations’ activities should be investigated. The findings make two significant contributions to the current literature. One, they provide a detailed insight into the reuse operations of socio-economic enterprises. Previously unavailable data has been presented and analysed. Secondly, new evidence about the by-products/materials resulting from socio-economic enterprises’ reuse activities has been obtained. These contributions add substantially to our understanding of the important role of reuse organisations.     

基于贝叶斯网络的生态用地流失机制研究

从中微观尺度对城市滨江地区生态用地流失进行驱动因素分析,尤其将政策规划等具有重要影响力的因子进行量化分析,可为生态用地开发与保护政策制定提供参考。利用贝叶斯网络模型综合考虑导致生态用地流失的邻域因子、自然因子和政策规划因子,以良好的图形描述方法较为清晰地展示出生态用地变化及其驱动因子之间的过程关系。以南京滨江地区作为典型案例区,研究结果表明：（1）2005—2018年间,南京滨江地区约11.0%的生态用地发生流失,维持稳定的生态用地占比89.0%;（2）政策规划保护力是影响南京滨江地区生态用地流失的主要驱动因素,城镇扩张惯性力次之,二者对生态用地流失的敏感性分别为9.37%和2.53%,而开发阻力的敏感性仅为0.21%;（3）在政策规划因子中,沿江岸线规划对维持生态用地稳定性的作用效果高于土地利用规划,表明要使生态空间得以长期存在,应制定基于生态用地功能目标的保护政策。     

基于频率下降率的结构损伤自适应神经网络识别

笔者探讨了动量系数和学习率自适应调整的神经网络算法及结构裂纹损伤识别特征参数的选取,提出以反映结构损伤位置和程度的频率下降率作为结构裂纹损伤识别的特征参数,利用有限元网格细化法对结构裂纹损伤进行数值模拟,获取训练样本数据,通过自适应神经网络对结构裂纹损伤问题进行识别研究。从结构裂纹损伤识别实例的结果中可以看出,采用频率下降率和自适应神经网络技术对结构裂纹进行损伤识别分析具有较高的精度和可靠性。     

A FAST RECURSIVE GIS ALGORITHM FOR COMPUTING STRAHLER STREAM ORDER IN BRAIDED AND NONBRAIDED NETWORKS1

ABSTRACT: Stream ordering is a useful property of every river network, having a wide range of applications. A method for determining stream orders that quickly and easily addresses various network topologies and magnitudes is therefore needed. This paper introduces a general recursive stream ordering framework for vector hydrography. It also presents a linear, O(n), stream ordering procedure for braided river networks, which is a major improvement to the existing quadratic, O(n²), procedure. The discussion includes results and interpretations, and the appendices present procedure pseudocodes and thorough line by line explanations.     

基于车速的交通事故贝叶斯预测

为了降低交通事故的发生率 ,提高道路交通安全水平 ,提出了基于车速的贝叶斯预测方法来检测和预测交通事故。首先对车速与交通事故之间的关系进行分析。在分析的基础上 ,以车速为衡量对象 ,提出贝叶斯预测方法。通过使用车速观测数据 ,应用 χ2 检验 ,确定是否为异常数据 ;并通过最小风险的贝叶斯预测 ,确定该异常是否会导致交通事故。最后 ,绘出利用该贝叶斯预测方法进行交通事故预测的流程图     

SAMPLE UNCERTAINTY IN FLOOD LEVEE DESIGN: BAYESIAN VERSUS NON-BAYESIAN METHODS1

ABSTRACT: Bayesian and non-Bayesian flood levee design methods that account for the uncertainty due to limited record length are compared using a case study. The first method, Bayesian decision theory (BDT), imbeds the uncertainty in the parameters of the yearly peak stage into a loss function. The optimum design of the flood levee, called Bayes design, corresponds to the minimum expected loss, called Bayes risk. The second method, induced safety algorithm (ISA), computes a margin of safety to be added to either an existing levee or a levee designed by classical benefit-cost analysis. The design decision is shown to fluctuate as different record lengths are considered. For short record lengths, BDT, which takes small sample bias into account, appears to yield a more conservative design than ISA. On the other hand, ISA, which is simple to implement, seems to be preferable to BDT for longer record lengths.     

Experiences from early stages of a national industrial symbiosis programme in the UK: determinants and coordination challenges

This paper reviews the factors influencing the development and sustained operation of regional industrial symbiosis (IS) networks and discusses the roles a coordination body can play to alter these factors so as to catalyse the development and functioning of such networks. These are analysed within the context of experiences gained in the early stages of three regional IS programmes under development in the UK, and of the recently launched national IS programme (NISP) that they are part of. It is stated that the policy framework in the UK has elements supportive of such networks to evolve, and the regional public bodies are favouring their development. Based on differences among studied cases, it is argued that the nature of companies’ operations and industrial history in the regions, the extent of peer pressure, the positioning of the coordinating body in the region, and its approach to awareness raising and recruitment have major influence on the progress of the programmes. Finally, the paper emphasises the importance of aligning the characteristics of emerging operations with the longer-term sustainability requirements. If accepted, this challenge assigns additional responsibilities to the coordinating parties.     

人工神经网络模拟芳基脲土壤吸附系数研究

对38种芳基脲类化合物的土壤吸附系数进行了定量结构－活性相关研究。利用量子化学的AM1方法提取化合物的结构参数，运用多元回归分析和人工神经网络对该化合物进行比较研究。研究结果表明，神经网络法所得结果优于多元回归分析结果，并对分析结果进行了吸附机理讨论。