Exceptional responders in conservation

Conservation operates within complex systems with incomplete knowledge of the system and the interventions utilized. This frequently results in the inability to find generally applicable methods to alleviate threats to Earth's vanishing wildlife. One approach used in medicine and the social sciences has been to develop a deeper understanding of positive outliers. Where such outliers share similar characteristics, they may be considered exceptional responders. We devised a 4‐step framework for identifying exceptional responders in conservation: identification of the study system, identification of the response structure, identification of the threshold for exceptionalism, and identification of commonalities among outliers. Evaluation of exceptional responders provides additional information that is often ignored in randomized controlled trials and before–after control‐intervention experiments. Interrogating the contextual factors that contribute to an exceptional outcome allow exceptional responders to become valuable pieces of information leading to unexpected discoveries and novel hypotheses.     

Effectiveness of protected areas for vertebrates based on taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity

Establishing protected areas is the primary goal and tool for preventing irreversible biodiversity loss. However, the effectiveness of protected areas that target specific species has been questioned for some time because targeting key species for conservation may impair the integral regional pool of species diversity and phylogenetic and functional diversity are seldom considered. We assessed the efficacy of protected areas in China for the conservation of phylogenetic diversity based on the ranges and phylogenies of 2279 terrestrial vertebrates. Phylogenetic and taxonomic diversity were strongly and positively correlated, and only 12.1–43.8% of priority conservation areas are currently protected. However, the patterns and coverage of phylogenetic diversity were affected when weighted by species richness. These results indicated that in China, protected areas targeting high species richness protected phylogenetic diversity well overall but failed to do so in some regions with more unique or threatened communities (e.g., coastal areas of eastern China, where severely threatened avian communities were less protected). Our results suggest that the current distribution of protected areas could be improved, although most protected areas protect both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity.     

Use of Surrogates to Predict the Stressor Response of Imperiled Species

Abstract: Rare or narrowly distributed species may be threatened by stressors to which they have never been exposed or for which data are very limited. In such cases the species response cannot be predicted on the basis of directly measured data, but may be inferred from the response of one or more appropriate surrogate species. Here, I propose a practical way to use the stressor response of one or more surrogate species to develop a working hypothesis or model of the stressor response of the target species. The process has 4 steps: (1) identify one or more candidate surrogate species, (2) model the relationship between the stressor and the response variable of interest for the surrogate species, (3) adapt the stressor–response relationship from the surrogate species to a model for the target species, possibly using Bayesian methods, and (4) incorporate additional data as they become available and adjust the response model of the target species appropriately. I applied the approach to an endangered fish species, the amber darter (Percina antesella), which is potentially threatened by urbanization. I used a Bayesian approach to combine data from a surrogate species (the bronze darter[Percina palmaris]) with available data for the amber darter to produce a model of expected amber darter response. Although this approach requires difficult decisions on the part of the manager, especially in the selection of surrogate species, its value lies in the fact that all assumptions are clearly stated in the form of hypotheses, which may be scrutinized and tested. It therefore provides a rational basis for instituting management policy even in the face of considerable uncertainty.     

Macroeconomic Policy,Growth, and Biodiversity Conservation

Abstract: To successfully achieve biodiversity conservation, the amount of ecosystem structure available for economic production must be determined by, and subject to, conservation needs. As such, the scale of economic systems must remain within the limits imposed by the need to preserve critical ecosystems and the regenerative and waste assimilative capacities of the ecosphere. These limits are determined by biophysical criteria, yet macroeconomics involves the use of economic instruments designed to meet economic criteria that have no capacity to achieve biophysically based targets. Macroeconomic policy cannot, therefore, directly solve the biodiversity erosion crisis. Nevertheless, good macroeconomic policy is still important given that bad macroeconomy policy is likely to reduce human well‐being and increase the likelihood of social upheaval that could undermine conservation efforts.     

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.     

Lessons from Białowieża Forest on the history of protection and the world's first reintroduction of a large carnivore

Understanding how the relationships between large carnivores and humans have evolved and have been managed through centuries can provide relevant insights for wildlife conservation. The management history of many large carnivores has followed a similar pattern, from game reserved for nobility, to persecuted pests, to conservation targets. We reconstructed the history of brown bear (Ursus arctos) management in Bia?owie?a Forest (Poland and Belarus) based on a detailed survey of historical literature and Russian archives. From the end of the Middle Ages to the end of 18th century, the brown bear was considered “animalia superiora” (i.e., game exclusively reserved for nobility and protected by law). Bears, also a source of public entertainment, were not regarded as a threat. Effective measures to prevent damages to traditional forest beekeeping were already in practice. In the beginning of 19th century, new game‐management approaches allowed most forest officials to hunt bears, which became the primary target of hunters due to their valuable pelt. This, together with an effective anticarnivore policy enhanced by bounties, led to bear extirpation in 1879. Different approaches to scientific game management appeared (planned extermination of predators and hunting levels that would maintain stable populations), as did the first initiatives to protect bears from cruel treatment in captivity. Bear reintroduction in Bia?owie?a Forest began in 1937 and represented the world's first reintroduction of a large carnivore motivated by conservation goals. The outbreak of World War II spoiled what might have been a successful project; reproduction in the wild was documented for 8 years and bear presence for 13. Soft release of cubs born in captivity inside the forest but freely roaming with minimal human contact proved successful. Release of captive human‐habituated bears, feeding of these bears, and a lack of involvement of local communities were weaknesses of the project. Large carnivores are key components of ecosystem‐function restoration, and site‐specific histories provide important lessons in how to preserve them for the future.     

Isotopes in teeth and a cryptic population of coastal freshwater seals

Human activities threaten the biodiversity of aquatic mammals across the globe. Conservation of these species hinges on the ability to delineate movements and foraging behaviors of animals, but gaining such insights is hampered by difficulties in tracing individuals over their lives. We determined isotope ratios in teeth (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, ¹³C/¹²C, and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O) to examine lifelong movement and resource-use patterns of a unique freshwater population of a wide-ranging pinniped species (harbor seal [Phoca vitulina]) that resides in Iliamna Lake, Alaska (U.S.A.). This population's potentially unique migratory behavior and use of different trophic resources are unknown. The isotope ratios we measured in teeth showed that seals were born in the lake, remained lifelong residents, and relied principally on resources produced from in the lake, even when seasonally abundant and nutrient-dense spawning anadromous fish (i.e., sockeye salmon [Oncorhynchus nerka]) were available in the lake. Our results illustrate how serial isotope records in teeth, particularly ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, can be used to quantify how coastal mammal populations exploit both freshwater and marine ecosystems. Understanding lifelong patterns of habitat and resource use is essential information when designing effective conservation plans for threatened coastal mammals. We present the Iliamna Lake harbor seals as a unique case study into how isotope records within teeth can help reveal the cryptic ecology of such a population residing in an intact ecosystem. The results also provide critical baseline information for the Kvichak River system, which is facing an uncertain future due to proposed large-scale industrial development and a rapidly changing climate.     

Assessing the strength of climate and land-use influences on montane epiphyte communities

Epiphytes, air plants that are structurally dependent on trees, are a keystone group in tropical forests; they support the food and habitat needs of animals and influence water and nutrient cycles. They reach peak diversity in humid montane forests. Climate predictions for Central American mountains include increased temperatures, altered precipitation seasonality, and increased cloud base heights, all of which may challenge epiphytes. Although remaining montane forests are highly fragmented, many tropical agricultural systems include trees that host epiphytes, allowing epiphyte communities to persist even in landscapes with lower forest connectivity. I used structural equations models to test the relative effects of climate, land use, tree characteristics, and biotic interactions on vascular epiphyte diversity with data from 31 shade coffee farms and 2 protected forests in northern Nicaragua. I also tested substrate preferences of common species with randomization tests. Tree size, tree diversity, and climate all affected epiphyte richness, but the effect of climate was almost entirely mediated by bryophyte cover. Bryophytes showed strong sensitivity to mean annual temperature and insolation. Many ferns and some orchids were positively associated with bryophyte mats, whereas bromeliads tended to establish among lichen or on bare bark. The tight relationships between bryophytes and climate and between bryophytes and vascular epiphytes indicated that relatively small climate changes could result in rapid, cascading losses of montane epiphyte communities. Currently, shade coffee farms can support high bryophyte cover and diverse vascular epiphyte assemblages when larger, older trees are present. Agroforests serve as valuable reservoirs for epiphyte biodiversity and may be important early-warning systems as the climate changes.     

Predicting the Spatial Distribution of a Seabird Community to Identify Priority Conservation Areas in the Timor Sea

Understanding spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of species is fundamental to the conservation of marine and terrestrial ecosystems. To support strategic decision making aimed at sustainable management of the oceans, such as the establishment of protected areas for marine wildlife, we identified areas predicted to support multispecies seabird aggregations in the Timor Sea. We developed species distribution models for 21 seabird species based on at‐sea survey observations from 2000–2013 and oceanographic variables (e.g., bathymetry). We applied 4 statistical modeling techniques and combined the results into an ensemble model with robust performance. The ensemble model predicted the probability of seabird occurrence in areas where few or no surveys had been conducted and demonstrated 3 areas of high seabird richness that varied little between seasons. These were located within 150 km of Adele Island, Ashmore Reef, and the Lacepede Islands, 3 of the largest aggregations of breeding seabirds in Australia. Although these breeding islands were foci for high species richness, model performance was greatest for 3 nonbreeding migratory species that would have been overlooked had regional monitoring been restricted to islands. Our results indicate many seabird hotspots in the Timor Sea occur outside existing reserves (e.g., Ashmore Reef Marine Reserve), where shipping, fisheries, and offshore development likely pose a threat to resident and migratory populations. Our results highlight the need to expand marine spatial planning efforts to ensure biodiversity assets are appropriately represented in marine reserves. Correspondingly, our results support the designation of at least 4 new important bird areas, for example, surrounding Adele Island and Ashmore Reef. Pronostico de la Distribución Espacial de una Comunidad de Aves Marinas para Identificar Áreas Prioritarias de Conservación en el Mar de Timor