基于随机森林的高速公路运营隧道风险判别法则研究*

为快速、准确识别山区高速公路隧道不同区段风险因素组合,基于交通事故调研数据,分析其时空变化规律;从人-车-路-环境角度系统筛选风险影响因素,采用随机森林理论构建风险等级预测模型;以决策树与规则相互关系为基础,结合自变量重要评分法,提出基于随机森林的高速公路运营隧道风险判别法则。研究结果表明:判别法则集预测精度较好且运行时间短,能够明确高速公路不同隧道区段事故成因,为预防隧道严重交通事故发生提供参考。     

长江三角洲地区霾判别方法的对比分析

为对比霾判别方法的差异,探讨霾观测标准的再完善性,文中从空间分布与单点时间序列两方面分别分析研究了4种霾判别方法的特征与适用性.选取中国长江三角洲地区1980~2009年38个地面观测站的气象资料,根据使用日均值的方法 1、2和使用14:00观测值的方法 3分别统计各站点的霾日,分析3种方法的异同.发现这些方法都能够反映出霾的长期变化趋势,但存在差异,这种差异随着年代际变化逐渐减小.由方法 1得到的霾日数最多,方法 3考虑了天气现象,比方法 1和2更合理.依据南京北郊2012年5月~2013年4月的逐时PM2.5浓度、相对湿度和能见度等资料,分析比较了方法 4(霾的观测和等级预报,QX/T 113-2010)与方法 1、2、3的不同.结果表明,由方法 3统计出的霾日少于其他方法,由方法 4统计出的霾日数介于方法 1与方法 3的结果;方法 3不能分辨出霾的严重程度,而其他方法能较好地分辨出霾的严重程度.     

土壤中可萃取性石油烃的程序升温进样气相色谱法

与恒温进样气相色谱法相比,程序升温进样具有适用范围广、分析速度快、分离度高等优点。应用程序升温进样气相色谱法,建立了以正己烷为溶剂,C₅-C₄₄正构烃混合物为沸点定性校准物质,柴油-润滑油(体积比为1∶1)混合物为定量标准物质,可对污染土壤中C₁₀-C₄₀可萃取性石油烃同时进行定性和定量的分析方法。该方法还可以快速直观地确定出各石油烃组分在土壤中所占的比例。对不同进样方式的测定结果进行比较发现,在使用分流/不分流进样口的不分流模式对馏分油进行检测时,存在分流歧视现象,定量结果偏差最高可达28.6%;而使用程序升温进样口的程序升温不分流模式,不存在分流歧视现象,在测定所含组分沸程较宽、浓度差别较大的馏分油以及污染土壤时,都具有较高的精密度和准确性。     

战略环境影响识别研究

环境影响因子识别是战略环境评价的基础内容之一.本文通过分析战略环境影响发生的2个战略根源和3类环境影响受体,提出战略环境影响发生机理.2个战略根源分别是战略缺陷和战略的"超域效应和外部性";3类环境影响受体包括全球可持续性因子、自然资源因子和当地环境质量因子.对环境影响因子识别、影响范围识别和时间跨度识别等3个方面的战略环境影响识别内容进行了研究,并对战略环境影响识别依据进行了分析,给出了可应用于战略环境评价的识别方法.同时,以上海市能源专项规划为例,进行战略环境影响因子与影响范围的识别,建立了能源专项规划的战略环境评价指标体系.     

Target and nontarget discrimination of herbicides applied to vegetation in a power-line corridor

We tested two cutting regimens (cut/spray and cut/delay spray) and four radiarc-applied herbicides (Garlon + Tordon, Accord, Accord + Escort, and Krenite) in an Ohio power-line corridor to determine which management combination best eliminated target species (i.e., trees) and preserved nontarget species (i.e., low shrubs, vines, perennial herbs, and grasses). When spraying was delayed after cutting, the herbicide with the least impact on nontarget species (Krenite) also was least efficient at killing target trees. Spraying soon after cutting improved tree-killing efficiency of several herbicides, but it also increased the negative impact on nontarget species. The herbicide with the most consistent tree-killing ability (Accord + Escort) had the most impact on nontarget species. Because none of the herbicide/cutting treatments performed ideally, resource managers must decide the acceptable impact on nontarget species when considering herbicide use. Future success of herbicides as part of an integrated succession management approach requires more selective application methods and formulations so that target effects can be maximized and nontarget effects can be minimized.     

Host intra-clutch variation,cuckoo egg matching and egg rejection by great reed warblers

Prevailing theory predicts that lower levels of intra-clutch variation in host eggs facilitate the detection of brood parasitism. We assessed egg matching using both human vision and UV-VIS spectrophotometry and then followed the nest fate of great reed warblers naturally parasitised by European cuckoos. Rejection was predicted by the following three variables: matching between cuckoo and host eggs on the main chromatic variable defined by principal components analysis of the egg spectra (which has a strong loading in the UV); the number of host eggs in the nest; and human estimates of intra-clutch variation. The first variable is not correlated to human estimates of matching, which do not predict rejection. In line with another recent study, rejection rates were predicted by higher levels of intra-clutch variation in the host eggs, suggesting that higher rather than lower levels of intra-clutch variation can facilitate the discrimination of cuckoo eggs by hosts. We suggest that the importance of intra-clutch variation is context dependent, with intra-clutch variation being important when there is good matching between the host and the cuckoo eggs. Our results also suggest that both spectrometric and human visual assessments of egg matching and intra-clutch variation are prudent: the former provide the best method of estimating reflectance variation, whereas the latter include some assessment of patterns of maculation.     

水源地水污染风险等级判别方法及应用

以广西柳州市柳南水厂水源地为研究对象,建立了水源地风险等级判别模型,模型主要考虑企业风险等级,以及风险影响后水源地水质超标倍数、水质超标持续时间、污染团到达时间等因子,模型参数根据调查及分析得到。通过风险判别模型,计算得到柳南水厂取水口的风险等级,为该区域进行环境风险管理提供了技术支撑。     

Kinship and aggression: do house sparrows spare their relatives?

Kin-selection theory predicts that relatedness may reduce the level of aggression among competing group members, leading to indirect fitness benefits for kin-favoring individuals. To test this hypothesis, we investigated whether relatedness affects aggressive behavior during social activities in captive house sparrow (Passer domesticus) flocks. We found that sparrows did not reduce their aggression towards kin, as neither the frequency nor the intensity of fights differed between close kin and unrelated flock-mates. Fighting success was also unrelated to kinship and the presence of relatives in the flock did not influence the birds’ dominance rank. These results suggest that the pay-offs of reduced aggression towards kin may be low in non-breeding flocks of sparrows, e.g. due to competition among relatives as predicted by a recent refinement of kin-selection theory. Our findings indicate that the significance of kin selection may be restricted in some social systems such as winter aggregations of birds. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

基于改进的未确知聚类模型的岩爆倾向性预测

在采用未确知聚类评价模型进行多指标分级评价时,常采用置信度识别准则作为待测对象的属性识别,该准则中置信度的取值由人为取定,当置信度取值不同时,得到的分级判定结果往往出现差异,甚至产生完全不同的判定结果。通过距离判别的思想将未确知聚类理论中的置信度识别准则进行改进,并运用到岩爆烈度的分级预测中。根据岩爆发生的主要影响因素,选取岩石单轴抗压强度σ_c、单轴抗拉强度σ_t、最大切应力σ_θ及岩石的弹性变形能指标W_(et)为岩爆主要影响因子。并以σ_c/σ_1、σ_θ/σ_c、W_(ey)为岩爆烈度等级评价因子,建立未确知测度模型,以距离判别改进后的属性识别方法进行分级预测,并与原置信度识别准则得到的判别结果进行分析和比较。为验证改进模型的实用性,以贵州开磷集团马路坪矿区为例,采用改进的未确知聚类模型对其岩爆烈度等级进行预测分析。结果表明,预测结果与实际情况基本吻合,证明采用改进后的未确知测度模型的判别结果不仅消除了由于置信度取值不同造成的判别结果误差,降低了人为主观因素的影响,而且具有较高的判别准确性和可行性。     

Learning affects host discrimination behavior in a parasitoid wasp

Learning is generally predicted not to be important in host discrimination by parasitoids, because the stimuli involved are less variable than those used in habitat location. However, Anaphes victus (Hymenoptera: Mymaridae), an egg parasitoid of Listronotus oregonensis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) apparently learns to associate external pheromones with the presence of a conspecific in a host. In this species, females can reject a parasitized host either after antennal drumming (antennal rejection) or after the insertion of their ovipositor (sting rejection). When they encountered a series of parasitized hosts, females A. victus learned to associate the presence of the external pheromone with the presence of the internal one. Learning lasted less than 4 h and occurred earlier in a series when the female marking the egg and the one detecting that mark were close relatives. This behavior could be adaptive because antennal rejection is faster than sting rejection. Received: 11 March 1997 / Accepted after revision: 30 August 1997