Tasmanian landowner preferences for conservation incentive programs: a latent class approach

An empirical model of landowners' conservation incentive program choice is developed in which information about landowners' socio-economic and property characteristics and their attitudes, is combined with incentive program attributes. In a Choice survey landowners were presented with the choice of two incentive programs modelled as 'bundles of attributes' mimicking a voluntary choice scenario. Landowner behaviour and decision and the type of conditions and regulations they preferred were analyzed. Based on choice survey data, landowner heterogeneity was accounted for using a latent class approach to estimate the preference parameters. Three latent classes of landowners with different attitudes to the role and outcome of establishing conservation reserves on private land were identified: multi-objective owners; environment owners; and production owners. Only a small proportion of landowners, mostly environment owners, would voluntarily join a program. Although compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice for multi-objective owners and environment owners, welfare losses were around 4000 AUD per hectare, which is less than the average agricultural land value in Tasmania. Landowners for whom compensation funding contributed to voluntary program choice were also most likely to set aside land for conservation without payment. This raises the possibility that the government's compensation expenditure could potentially be either reduced or re-allocated to landowners who will not voluntarily take conservation action. Increasing participation in conservation incentive programs and minimizing the welfare losses associated with meeting conservation targets may be best achieved by offering programs that allow flexibility in terms of legal arrangements and other program attributes.     

Identifying priority areas for ecosystem service management in South African grasslands

Grasslands provide many ecosystem services required to support human well-being and are home to a diverse fauna and flora. Degradation of grasslands due to agriculture and other forms of land use threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services. Various efforts are underway around the world to stem these declines. The Grassland Programme in South Africa is one such initiative and is aimed at safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. As part of this developing programme, we identified spatial priority areas for ecosystem services, tested the effect of different target levels of ecosystem services used to identify priority areas, and evaluated whether biodiversity priority areas can be aligned with those for ecosystem services. We mapped five ecosystem services (below ground carbon storage, surface water supply, water flow regulation, soil accumulation and soil retention) and identified priority areas for individual ecosystem services and for all five services at the scale of quaternary catchments. Planning for individual ecosystem services showed that, depending on the ecosystem service of interest, between 4% and 13% of the grassland biome was required to conserve at least 40% of the soil and water services. Thirty-four percent of the biome was needed to conserve 40% of the carbon service in the grassland. Priority areas identified for five ecosystem services under three target levels (20%, 40%, 60% of the total amount) showed that between 17% and 56% of the grassland biome was needed to conserve these ecosystem services. There was moderate to high overlap between priority areas selected for ecosystem services and already-identified terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity priority areas. This level of overlap coupled with low irreplaceability values obtained when planning for individual ecosystem services makes it possible to combine biodiversity and ecosystem services in one plan using systematic conservation planning.     

Suitability of short or long conservation contracts under ecological and socio-economic uncertainty

Acquisition of land rights has become a primary tool used to protect terrestrial biodiversity. Fixed length contracts are often used when trying to secure conservation benefits on private land in agri-environment schemes and payment for environmental services schemes, but the duration of the conservation contracts used in different programmes varies. To date, very little research has been undertaken to determine the situations in which contracts of differing lengths are optimal or when conservation agencies or groups should use a portfolio of different contract lengths rather than relying on a single type. Using stochastic dynamic programming and related heuristic methods, we investigate how the choice between short or long conservation contracts is affected by uncertainty regarding the future availability of sites and their ecological condition. We also examine the benefits offered by using a portfolio of different contract lengths. Conservation agencies must pay private landowners a premium to secure longer agreements and because of this, shorter contracts are advantageous if sites are likely to remain available for conservation in the future. Long contracts are preferred when future site availability becomes more unlikely. In contrast to uncertainty over site availability, uncertainty over future ecological conditions has little effect on contract selection and only markedly influences the choice between short and long contracts when there is heterogeneity across sites in expected conservation outcomes and future availability of sites is also uncertain. Finally, when future site availability is unlikely, the use of a portfolio of short and long contracts would offer greater conservation gains than using either type in isolation, even though this option is not yet one that is commonly found in conservation practice.     

Forecasting population trend from the scaling pattern of occupancy

Forecasting the temporal trend of a focal species, its range expansion or retraction, provides crucial information regarding population viability. To this end, we require the accumulation of temporal records which is evidently time consuming. Progress in spatial data capturing has enabled rapid and accurate assessment of species distribution across large scales. Therefore, it would be appealing to infer the temporal trends of populations from the spatial structure of their distributions. Based on a combination of models from the fields of range dynamics, occupancy scaling and spatial autocorrelation, here I present a model for forecasting the population trend solely from its spatial distribution. Numerical tests using cellular automata confirm a positive correlation, as inferred from the model, between the temporal change in species range sizes and the exponent of the power-law scaling pattern of occupancy. The model is thus recommended for rapid estimation of species range dynamics from a single snapshot of its current distribution. Further applications in biodiversity conservation could provide a swift risk assessment, especially, for endangered and invasive species.     

Movement distances enhance validity of predictive models

Including the distance species are able to move in predictive models improves conservation practice. Bird inventory projects carried out from 1993 to 2004 in Taiwan provide an opportunity to investigate the relationships among species distribution, movement distance, and the environment. We compared projected distributions of 17 Taiwanese endemic bird species using what we called the Standard Method (i.e. movement distance is zero) and what we called the Buffer Method (i.e. movement distance is longer than zero) in three presence-only models (GARP, MAXENT and LIVES). The Standard Method used species original occurrence records directly while the Buffer Method expanded the occurrence of species to areas 1 km² around each recorded location. We first tested the efficacy of the Buffer Method using ten common species of the 17, and then applied the method to two rare species of the 17. For both the common and rare species, the distributions predicted by the two methods showed slight but important differences. The Buffer Method for all species had a higher average predictive probability, while the Standard Method had a higher maximum predictive probability. Most of the values for the area under the curve (AUC) were over 0.8 with the exceptions of Taiwan Barbet (Megalaima nuchalis) and Taiwan Hwamei (Garrulax taewanus), which have recently separated from Indochinese Barbet (Megalaima annamensis) and Chinese Hwamei (Garrulax canorus), and since 2008 and 2006 have been regarded as species endemic to the study area. Kappa values showed good performance for all species using both methods. The Buffer Method, however, resulted in significantly higher sensitivity and accuracy values for all models of species (p < 0.05). We conclude that when modeling species distribution including the area where the species was censused along with areas within the minimum movement areas better defines the surrounding areas that might supplement core habitat requirements. Therefore, using the Buffer Method, species surrounding distribution can be obtained which provides a better understanding of the species distributions. Given that distribution size is a key to the conservation of species, we suggest the Buffer Method can be used in conservation planning.     

Resource allocation in two species systems: Is it worth acknowledging species interactions?

It is becoming increasingly popular to consider species interactions when managing ecological foodwebs. Such an approach is useful in determining how management can affect multiple species, with either beneficial or detrimental consequences. Identifying such actions is particularly valuable in the context of conservation decision making as funding is severely limited. This paper outlines a new approach that simplifies the resource allocation problem in a two species system for a range of species interactions: independent, mutualism, predator-prey, and competitive exclusion. We assume that both species are endangered and we do not account for decisions over time. We find that optimal funding allocation is to the conservation of the species with the highest marginal gain in expected probability of survival and that, across all except mutualist interaction types, optimal conservation funding allocation differs between species. Loss in efficiency from ignoring species interactions was most severe in predator-prey systems. The funding problem we address, where an ecosystem includes multiple threatened species, will only become more commonplace as increasing numbers of species worldwide become threatened.     

森林、茶园和菜园3种土地利用类型下的蝴蝶群落物种与功能多样性比较研究

土地利用变化是蝴蝶多样性丧失的重要原因,为探究森林转变为茶园与菜园后蝴蝶多样性的变化特点,于2019年4—10月采用样线法在江苏宝华山逐月调查了上述3种土地利用类型下的蝴蝶多样性。调查结果显示,共监测到蝴蝶5科47属62种;森林的Shannon Wiener多样性指数、Margalef丰富度指数和Pielou均匀度指数均高于茶园和菜园,但Simpson优势度指数茶园最高;功能丰富度指数（F_ric）、二次熵指数（RaoQ）都是森林显著高于其他2种土地利用类型,但菜园的F_ric显著高于茶园;功能离散度指数（F_div）和功能均匀度指数（F_eve）3种土地利用类型间无显著差异。蝴蝶群落物种和功能多样性与植被类型及其时空变化有明显的相关性,土地利用变化等人类活动对蝶类群落多样性有破坏作用。     

石窟文物病害成因分析及其对策研究

本文在概述石窟寺主要病害的基础上，结合典型灾例，从气象气候因素、地震活动、水文特征、环境工程地质条件、石窟寺结构和龛内文物自身的特殊性以及人类社会行为因素等６个方面详细分析了石窟文物病害形成的内部作用因素和外部环境条件，强调了综合减灾的重要性，并提出了相应的减灾对策。本文旨在为石窟寺的科学保护和文物修复工作提供理论基础和实践依据     

Modelling semi-aquatic vertebrates’ distribution at the drainage basin scale: The case of the otter Lutra lutra in Italy

Modelling habitat suitability of semi-aquatic vertebrates for large scale conservation purposes is a particularly challenging task, due to the fine-scale linearity of riverine habitats, and to the ecological continuum represented by the riparian and the aquatic ecosystems, on one side, and by a river and its tributaries, on the other.     

Factors affecting the floristic diversity and nestedness in the islets of Lake Bardawil, North Sinai, Egypt: implications for conservation

Island biogeography theory and nestedness are two relevant and important concepts in biogeography and conservation. However, their integration and application has not been examined for maintaining or maximizing species diversity, especially in arid regions. The aim of this study is to investigate the ecological mechanisms related to the observed pattern of floristic diversity and nestedness in the Lake Bardawil islets on the Mediterranean coast of Sinai Peninsula before the execution of the North Sinai Agricultural Development Project (NSADP) that will threaten the ecosystem of the lake. Plant species on 15 islets were identified and categorized into ecological groups related to their life-form, salt tolerance and succulence. Richness of total plant species and their ecological groups were positively correlated with islet area, number of habitats and elevation, and negatively with disturbance index. The temperature calculator detected highly significant nestedness for the entire flora and all ecological groups. Distance from the mainland had no effect on either species richness or nested pattern of total plant species and their ecological groups. Both the analyses of species richness and nested distribution yielded evidence for a positive species-area relationship. Although nestedness was detected for the entire plant species and their ecological groups, many species and islets exhibited idiosyncratic distribution. Idiosyncrasies could be mainly attributed to demographic stochasticity which is an important character for species interaction and diversity maintenance in arid regions. Therefore, in developing conservation strategies for the Lake Bardawil islets, it is important to incorporate spatial and temporal stability of populations.