露天转地下开采对上覆构筑物安全影响分析

为在最大限度科学回收地下资源的前提下,保证地表构筑物安全,以国内某大型矿山为工程背景,采用空区监测系统(CMS)结合DIMINE/FLAC3D建模技术,构建露天转地下开采对地表构筑物影响分析三维可视化计算模型。通过数值计算与现场调查相结合的方法,对比分析露天转地下开采影响范围内的地表构筑物水平位移、倾斜、曲率、沉降。结果表明:数值计算获得的应力场和位移场结果,与矿山实测结果基本吻合。该矿山开采1 650 m阶段后监测点最大倾斜指标为9 mm/m,接近允许值上限,因此,其最大合理开采深度为1 650 m阶段。     

基于AHP-模糊方法的某化工园区应急能力评估

化工园区应急能力评估是化工园区风险评估及应急管理的重要内容,化工园区建立应急能力评估体系一方面可以提高园区企业及管理部门的应急响应能力,另一方面可以增强政府各部门对事故的应急管理能力。在对某化工园区现场调研的基础上,结合国内外研究成果,确定了化工园区应急能力的多级指标,并运用AHP-模糊方法对该园区进行了应急能力评估。     

A methodological framework and tool for assessing the climate change related risks in the banking sector

Although climate change risks have been studied for a number of economic sectors, banking has received relatively little attention. The paper proposes a methodology and an associated decision-support tool for quantifying, in monetary terms, the risks for banks from the exposure of their loan recipients and/or applicants to climate change. The framework and tool are applied to a case study based on input from a Greek bank; results indicate that climate change risks for banks are considerable, and thus decision makers need to estimate their magnitude and possibly consider these within the credit management process, and in environmental planning.     

Unveiling soil degradation and desertification risk in the Mediterranean basin: a data mining analysis of the relationships between biophysical and socioeconomic factors in agro-forest landscapes

Soil degradation and desertification processes in the Mediterranean basin reflect the interplay between environmental and socioeconomic drivers. An approach to evaluate comparatively the multiple relationships between biophysical variables and socioeconomic factors is illustrated in the present study using the data collected from 586 field sites located in five Mediterranean areas (Spain, Greece, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco). A total of 47 variables were chosen to illustrate land-use, farm characteristics, population pressure, tourism development, rainfall regime, water availability, soil properties and vegetation cover, among others. A data mining approach incorporating non-parametric inference, principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering was developed to identify candidate syndromes of soil degradation and desertification risk. While field sites in the same study area showed a substantial similarity, the multivariate relationship among variables diverged among study areas. Data mining techniques proved to be a practical tool to identify spatial determinants of soil degradation and desertification risk. Our findings identify the contrasting spatial patterns for biophysical and socioeconomic variables, in turn associated with different responses to land degradation.     

Success and failure assessment methodology for wastewater and faecal sludge treatment projects in low-income countries

Many factors influence success and failure of large-scale faecal sludge and wastewater treatment projects in low-income countries. Benchmarking indicators and multicriteria analysis were adapted to define key institutional, technical and financial factors, to analyse their interrelations, and understand priorities to consider when planning and managing treatment plants. For the first time, these methods have been combined in a quantitative manner to assess planned and on-going treatment plant projects. This new methodology will aid sanitation utilities, private consultants, and funding institutions to prioritise activities and organise the operation of treatment plants.     

Development of Sediment and Nutrient Export Coefficients for U.S. Ecoregions

Water quality impairment due to excessive nutrients and sediment is a major problem in the United States (U.S.). An important step in the mitigation of impairment in any given water body is determination of pollutant sources and amount. The sheer number of impaired waters and limited resources makes simplistic load estimation methods such as export coefficient (EC) methods attractive. Unfortunately ECs are typically based on small watershed monitoring data, which are very limited and/or often based on data collected from distant watersheds with drastically different conditions. In this research, we seek to improve the accuracy of these nutrient export estimation methods by developing a national database of localized EC for each ecoregion in the U.S. A stochastic sampling methodology loosely based on the Monte‐Carlo technique was used to construct a database of 45 million Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations. These simulations consider a variety of climate, topography, soils, weather, land use, management, and conservation implementation conditions. SWAT model simulations were successfully validated with edge‐of‐field monitoring data. Simulated nutrient ECs compared favorably with previously published studies. These ECs may be used to rapidly estimate nutrient loading for any small catchment in the U.S. provided the location, area, and land‐use distribution are known.     

Specific Yield Functions for Estimating Evapotranspiration from Diurnal Surface Water Cycles

The White method has been routinely used to estimate evapotranspiration using diurnal variations in groundwater levels. Applications to surface water systems (e.g., wetlands) are less common. For applications to surface water systems, a stage‐dependent specific yield function must be defined. This is especially important for small wetlands formed in topographic depressions with bowl shaped bathymetries. Existing formulations of the specific yield function include weighting factors that impact the relative importance of the soil and open water specific yields on the composite value. Three formulations of the specific yield function from the literature were compared and found to produce varied results. Based on a comparison with empirical estimates of specific yield based on observed ratios of net precipitation to water level rise, one of the existing formulations is generalized and recommended for general use. The recommended function is dependent on wetland bathymetry, magnitude of the diurnal fluctuation, spatial extent of the equilibration area, and soil‐specific yield. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the relative importance of these variables. The specific yield function is independent of wetland size and is strongly dependent on the basin profile coefficient (p), an indication of wetland shape. For most natural wetlands, bathymetry strongly influences specific yield.     

1961—2010年新疆生长季节指数时空变化特征及其农业响应

在定义生长季节长度(GSL)、生长季节开始时间(LSF)以及生长季节结束时间(FFF)三个生长季节指数的基础上,采用模糊聚类、稳健回归及Mann-Kendall非参数检验等方法分析新疆1961—2010年生长季节指数时空变化特征,并针对作物生长季节指数变化对区域农业生产的影响进行了深入探讨。结果表明:新疆20世纪90年代中期,GSL变化幅度很大,低纬地区生长季节受低温影响较小,而随纬度上升,中高纬地区生长季节受低温影响越大。生长季节长度的变化与秋季低温(生长季节结束时间)变化情况紧密相连,全疆生长季节长度在80%的保证率下,较多年平均生长季节长度缩短5~14 d。生长季节长度的延长,会导致净初级生产力以及年蒸散发总量上升,继而影响水文、生态系统以及生物地球化学过程。     

岩溶地下河表层沉积物多环芳烃的污染及生态风险研究

为了解重庆南山老龙洞岩溶地下河表层沉积物中多环芳烃(polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons,PAHs)的污染特征及生态风险,分析了地下河上游及出口表层沉积物样品中16种优先控制PAHs的含量和组成.结果表明,沉积物中PAHs总量在58.2~3 598 ng·g-1之间,大部分在100~5 000 ng·g-1之间,处于中等到高污染水平;从组成来看,老龙洞组成以2~4环为主,占到75.1%,仙女洞以4~6环相对富集,其比例为56.6%;老龙洞沉积物中PAHs主要来源于上游水体传输及地表土壤的输入,PAHs在地下河管道中的迁移表现为2~3环PAHs迁移距离远,4~6环的PAHs被强烈地吸附于沉积物中,迁移能力不足,从而富集于地下河管道中;生态风险评价结果表明,老龙洞沉积物PAHs很少产生负面生态效应,而仙女洞沉积物产生负面生态效应概率较大,一旦PAHs逐渐往下游迁移,将对下游的生态构成威胁.     

钠盐类型对表面活性剂清洗煤油污染土壤的强化效应

采用表面活性剂清洗煤油污染土壤,考察添加钠盐对洗脱率的影响,并用Zeta电位仪、表面张力仪对溶液及用接触角仪对清洗前后的土壤进行表征.结果表明,硅酸钠对十二烷基硫酸钠(SDS)清洗的增效作用最明显;酒石酸钠对十二烷基苯磺酸钠(SDBS)及聚氧乙烯月桂醚(Brij35)清洗的增效作用最明显;不同类型钠盐对曲拉通X-100(TX-100)清洗均有一定的增效作用但差别不明显;腐殖酸钠及硅酸钠对皂苷溶液清洗的增效程度相当,但就改良土质而言选用腐殖酸钠作助剂更为合适;硅酸钠对Tw-80清洗的增效作用随着Tw-80浓度的增大而增强,氯化钠和酒石酸钠则相反.钠盐增效清洗的作用机制是降低离子型表面活性剂的表面张力和临界胶束浓度;而非离子型表面活性剂的增效作用则是利用钠盐防止煤油"重吸附"及抗表面活性剂"沉淀",增大胶团体积来实现.接触角测量表明,煤油污染后的土壤亲水性减弱,清洗后接触角变小,亲水性增强,且随着表面活性剂浓度的增大接触角减小,对恢复土壤运输水分和养料正常功能有利.