基于生态位与约束CA的土地资源优化配置模型研究——以武汉市黄陂区为例

土地资源优化配置一直是土地科学的核心问题之一。传统的土地资源优化配置模型主要关注土地利用的经济属性而忽略土地利用行为的生态环境效应．已不适应可持续发展的要求；并且在优化内容上都是对土地资源数量结构的优化。忽视了土地资源空间布局优化．近几年很多学者通过与相关模型算法的集成形成的优化模型从一定程度上对数量结构优化模型进行了改造。实现了社会、生态、经济三效益的优化配置目标。但将土地资源数量结构优化与空间布局优化系统研究的模型却非常少见。本文运用生态位模型对土地资源数量结构进行优化进而将数量优化结果作为CA模拟的约束条件对空间布局进行优化．实现了土地资源数量结构优化与空间布局优化的统一。     

Supporting organizational learning by comparing activities and outcomes of the safety-management system

The approach to support organizational learning from pro-active monitoring (activities observations) and deficiencies revealed (outcomes observations) in process-safety incident investigations is proposed.The approach builds on five main steps: i.) Implementation of the incident-investigation procedure at the company level, ii.) Monitoring of the preventive safety activities using various tools, iii.) Identification of the safety outcomes including root-cause analysis, iv.) Comparison of activities observations with outcomes observations in order to reveal latent deficiencies as well as to proof relationships, v.) New universal indicator method is proposed to enhance organizational learning from both activities and outcomes observations.The approach is demonstrated on the implementation at the anonymous SME company. This involved carrying out activities observations in terms of the SMS internal audit and the ARAMIS and the violation-motivation safety-culture questionnaire surveys. The outcomes observations consisted of the three incidents investigations using ECFA+, 3CA and MORT methods. The approach and the case study enabled demonstration of the relationships between activities observations (preventive indicators) and outcomes observations (root causes/deficiencies indicators) and vice versa. We state that such a comparison adds to the justification of the preventive safety performance indicators. Finally, in order to ease the organizational learning from both activities and outcomes observations, universal management indicators attributes/categories are suggested to be followed and are briefly explained based on a modified REWI approach.     

部分含J-型剂量-效应关系二元混合物的毒性效应(Toxicities of Binary Mixtures Including at Least One Component with J-Shaped Dose-Response Curve)

低剂量刺激高剂量抑制的Hormesis效应常常呈现J-型剂量-效应关系,如何评价Hormesis污染物及其混合物的毒性目前尚未解决.选择微板毒性分析法(Microplate Toxicity Analysis,MTA)获得的具有J-型剂量-效应关系的丙酮、乙腈及S-型剂量效应关系的二甲亚砜为混合物组分,以直接均分射线法构建丙酮-二甲亚砜(J-S型)、乙腈-二甲亚砜(J-S型)和丙酮-乙腈(J-J型)3个二元混合物体系,利用不同效应浓度水平下以浓度加和为参考模型的多个等效线图分析污染物的毒性变化规律.结果表明,所有二元混合物仍然具有J-型浓度-效应关系特征,除丙酮-乙腈二元混合体系在1个效应浓度水平下可能呈现协同特征外,其余二元混合物在不同效应浓度水平均表现为拮抗特征.     

基于GECM与CA+ANN模型的土地资源优化配置与模拟

土地资源优化配置是土地科学研究的热点。论文在前人研究成果的基础上,以多目标动态规划方法中的逐步宽容约束(GECM)方法为基础,以社会、经济和生态效益为系统目标,设置8个方面的GECM约束条件,对广州市花都区2020年土地利用结构进行优化配置研究,并将土地利用结构优化配置结果作为约束条件,结合人工神经网络与元胞自动机(ANN+CA)模型对研究区土地利用空间布局进行模拟。研究结果表明:①GECM是一种较好的土地利用结构优化方法,花都区2008年建设用地规模(23 097 hm²)接近于2020年的合理用地水平(28 800 hm²);②ANN+CA可以实现土地资源的空间配置与模拟,通过GECM与ANN+CA的耦合进行土地资源优化配置的结果比较符合花都区的实际情况,模拟的方案更具合理性,能实现区域土地资源优化配置的时间与空间的统一。     

美人蕉在镉污染土壤中的植物修复研究

通过盆栽实验,研究了美人蕉在镉污染土壤中的生长特征及对镉的吸收规律和修复能力。结果表明,在土壤中含镉质量浓度为0～5mg/kg时,美人蕉生物量有小量上升。随时间延长和土壤镉浓度增大,镉对美人蕉生长的抑制程度增强。美人蕉对镉的富集规律表现为根>茎>叶。在含镉5mg/kg的土壤中生长2个月,美人蕉可从土壤中带走的镉量为3.60t/(hm2·月)。美人蕉适合种植于低浓度污染土壤,在镉污染环境的修复方面具有良好的应用前景。     

一种用于Ad hoc网络安全的新型混合式CA服务体系

由于Adhoc网络的无线分布和自组织特性 ,使得网络安全显得更为脆弱 ;同时由于Adhoc网络的无中心和计算性能受限特性 ,使得安全体系难以布设。笔者分析了传统CA体系和分布式CA体系各自的优缺点 ,提出了一种用于Adhoc网络的新型混合式CA服务体系。该混合式CA服务体系把证书颁发和证书管理分开 ,一方面具有了传统CA体系的安全性 ,另一方面减轻了Adhoc网络的计算负荷。同时对分布式证书管理中的证书撤销、证书验证、表的维护和更新作了详细的分析 ,并利用可信度系数α对证书的可信性进行描述 ,增加了分布式证书管理的可靠性和灵活性。     

基于PKI的CA认证中心在数字林业信息安全系统中的应用

介绍了林业信息化实施的过程中信息安全信任的基础、基于PKI的CA认证中心的基本原理,并结合在数字林业信息安全系统中的设计,表述了整个实施的基本过程.     

体育馆中人员安全疏散的仿真分析

针对现今公共活动中的人群踩踏事故频发问题,应用计算机仿真技术研究紧急情况下建筑物中人群逃生规律及设施优化方法。设置人员体质、移动余值、出口逃生条件等因素,扩展元胞自动机(CA)行人流模型。利用Matlab语言实现可视化模拟。对莱阳市某体育馆进行人流疏散模拟,分析得到其安全设施的最佳设定参数,实现优化目的。结果表明:该体育馆仿真疏散完成总时间为103.5 s,可引发踩踏事故的疏散危险期长达49.0 s,疏散危险期长度为判断踩踏事故发生可能性的重要指标;出口宽度、数量均与疏散时间呈负相关,且均存在疏散能力饱和点。据此提出将宽度改建为2.5 m、数量增加到6个的优化方案,此方案疏散危险期为9.0 s,疏散总时间缩短到33.5 s。     

Temporal and spatial change detecting (1998–2003) and predicting of land use and land cover in Core corridor of Pearl River Delta (China) by using TM and ETM+ images

Land use/land cover (LULC) has a profound impact on economy, society and environment, especially in rapid developing areas. Rapid and prompt monitoring and predicting of LULC’s change are crucial and significant. Currently, integration of Geographical Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) methods is one of the most important methods for detecting LULC’s change, which includes image processing (such as geometrical-rectifying, supervised-classification, etc.), change detection (post-classification), GIS-based spatial analysis, Markov chain and a Cellular Automata (CA) models, etc. The core corridor of Pearl River Delta was selected for studying LULC’s change in this paper by using the above methods for the reason that the area contributed 78.31% (1998)–81.4% (2003) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to the whole Pearl River Delta (PRD). The temporal and spatial LULC’s changes from 1998 to 2003 were detected by RS data. At the same time, urban expansion levels in the next 5 and 10 years were predicted temporally and spatially by using Markov chain and a simple Cellular Automata model respectively. Finally, urban expansion and farmland loss were discussed against the background of China’s urban expansion and cropland loss during 1990–2000. The result showed: (1) the rate of urban expansion was up to 8.91% during 1998–2003 from 169,078.32 to 184,146.48 ha; (2) the rate of farmland loss was 5.94% from 312,069.06 to 293,539.95 ha; (3) a lot of farmland converted to urban or development area, and more forest and grass field converted to farmland accordingly; (4) the spatial predicting result of urban expansion showed that urban area was enlarged ulteriorly compared with the previous results, and the directions of expansion is along the existing urban area and transportation lines.     

香港东部近海水质时空分布模式

综合利用系统聚类分析、后退式判别分析和基于GIS平台的逆距离加权法开展了香港东部近海水质时空分布模式研究,案例为香港东部近海区域,数据为2000～2004年27个采样点4类15个水质指标.结果表明:①在时间尺度上,香港东部近海水质最佳分为1～5月和6～12月2组;在空间尺度上分为2组,分别对应于重度和轻度污染类型;②表征时间和空间差异性的显著性指标分别为Si、NH 4-N、SD、DO、温度和TN、NH 4-N、PO-4-P、VSS;③显著性指标的时空差异性比较明显,其中空间尺度上第1组采样点(MM1、TM2～TM4)的周边区域浓度显著高于第2组,同时,除了第1组周边区域之外,TN与PO-4-P的空间分布基本相反,而NH 4-N与VSS则比较相似;时间尺度上Si在6～12月的平均浓度明显高于1～5月,而NH 4-N和SD则相反,此外,DO和温度两者的差异性显著负相关.基于上述结果,建议优化监测频次/采样点,同时需要加强8个显著性指标的监测,并且需要加强香港东部海岸陆源污染控制:吐露港和香港与深圳交界处重点削减点源和农田径流污染,而牛尾海水质管制区和赤门峡北部需要加强浴场休闲区和鱼类与贝类养殖区的环境管制.此研究可为香港近海水质监测和功能区划提供科学基础.