Renewable energy,non-renewable energy and sustainable development

The purpose of the present study is to analyse the effects of renewable energy and non-renewable energy on sustainable development. This study is pioneering in this respect because it analyses the effect of renewable energy on adjusted net savings, which is a good sustainable development variable. For this purpose, the data of 40 developed and 73 developing countries were included. According to the estimation results obtained in the study, renewable energy has a positive and statistically significant effect on sustainable development both in developed countries and in developing countries. The impact of renewable energy on sustainable development is greater than the impact of non-renewable energy. In this respect, as the renewable energy amount increases, the level of sustainable development increases. According to these results, the fact that countries use renewable energy more than non-renewable energy sources is extremely important in terms of making progress towards sustainability of development and the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.     

Do lower electricity storage costs reduce greenhouse gas emissions?

In the electricity sector, innovation in large-scale storage is anticipated to reduce costs and improve performance. The effect on greenhouse gas emissions of lower storage costs depends on the interactions between storage and the entire grid. The literature has disagreed on the role of storage in reducing emissions. In this paper we present a stylized model, which suggests that the effect of storage costs on emissions depends on the supply responsiveness of both fossil and renewable generators. Under common conditions in the United States, lower storage costs are more likely to reduce emissions when wind investment responds to equilibrium electricity prices and when solar investment does not. Simulations of a computational model of grid investment and operation confirm these intuitions. Moreover, because of its effect on coal and natural gas–fired supply responsiveness, introducing a carbon dioxide emissions price may increase the likelihood that lower storage costs reduce emissions.     

Carbon taxation,OPEC and the end of oil

I develop a differential game between an oil cartel and an importer investing in research and development (R&D) to reduce the cost of a green substitute to oil. In equilibrium, the cartel is forced to deter the substitute, which thus imposes a price ceiling falling over time. Credible carbon taxes are below the Pigovian level, implying the importer cannot internalise the full pollution externality, much less capture resource rents. Without carbon pricing, the importer curtails long-run pollution using a costly R&D programme. Normatively, climate policy will be more expensive if relying on green R&D programmes only.     

Environmental regulation as a double-edged sword for housing markets: Evidence from the NOx Budget Trading Program

We investigate the effects of environmental regulations on housing markets using a quasi-experimental setting—the NO_x Budget Trading Program (NBP). Hedonic theory predicts that house prices should rise as pollution levels decrease. However, environmental regulations may also affect labor markets, and thus housing demand. Employing a difference-in-differences framework, we find that house prices shifted up in the regulated areas with low manufacturing intensity, whereas in the areas with high manufacturing intensity, housing markets were weakened. We also find that in high-manufacturing-intensity areas, loan application volume declined, rejection rate augmented, and the probability of loan default increased.     

Using medico-legal data to investigate fatal older road user crash circumstances and risk factors

Objective: This study used medico-legal data to investigate fatal older road user (ORU, aged 65 years and older) crash circumstances and risk factors relating to 4 key components of the Safe System approach (e.g., roads and roadsides, vehicles, road users, and speeds) to identify areas of priority for targeted prevention activity.

Method: The Coroners' Court of Victoria's (CCOV) Surveillance Database was searched to identify and describe the frequency and rate per 100,000 population of fatal ORU crashes in the Australian state of Victoria for 2013–2014. Information relating to the deceased ORU, crash characteristics and circumstances, and risk factors was extracted and analyzed.

Results: One hundred and thirty-eight unintentional fatal ORU crashes were identified in the CCOV Surveillance Database. Of these fatal ORU crashes, most involved older drivers (44%), followed by older pedestrians (32%), older passengers (17%), older pedal cyclists (4%), older motorcyclists (1%), and older mobility scooter users (1%). The average annual rate of fatal ORU crashes per 100,000 population was 8.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.0–10.2). In terms of the crash characteristics and circumstances, most fatal ORU crashes involved a counterpart (98%), of which the majority were passenger cars (50%) or fixed/stationary objects (25%), including trees (46%) or embankments (23%). In addition, most fatal ORU crashes occurred close to home (73%), on-road (87%), on roads that were paved (94%), on roads with light traffic volume (37%), and during low-risk conditions: between 12 p.m. and 6 p.m. (44%), on weekdays (80%), during daylight (75%), and under dry/clear conditions (81%). Road user (RU) error was identified by the police and/or the coroner for the majority of fatal crashes (55%), with a significant proportion of deceased ORUs deemed to have failed to yield (54%) or misjudged (41%).

Conclusions: RU error was the most significant factor identified in fatal ORU crashes, which suggests that there is a limited capacity of the road system to fully accommodate RU errors. Initiatives related to safer roads and roadsides, vehicles, speed zones, as well as behavioral approaches are key areas of priority for targeted activity to prevent fatal ORU crashes in the future.     

灾害多发地域社会关系网络建构路径的实证研究——以云南省大关县翠华镇为例

为了更好地构建典型灾害多发地域的社会关系网络,进而为相关应急管理工作提供支撑,采用灾害多发地域档案数据与问卷数据验证相结合的方法,提出灾害多发地域社会关系网络的建构路径;选取位于古滑坡带上的云南省大关县翠华镇为例进行说明,通过地理信息系统（Arcgis）分析当地档案数据与问卷获取数据的空间对象分布特征,并以问卷调查的局部数据验证相关档案数据的可靠性,最后,在翠华镇社会关系网络基础上,分析该灾害多发地域的应急预警信息传播特点,提出“分区域预警,以户为单位传播预警信息“的措施建议。研究结果表明:通过档案数据与问卷数据相结合方法构建灾害多发地域社会关系网络的方法可行,能够为相关应急管理措施提供参考和支撑。     

基于电网防台抗台系统的应急主题数据仓库分析与设计

为解决电网防台抗台过程中缺少应急辅助支持的问题,提出基于现有电网防台抗台系统中的业务数据,采用星型结构分析与设计“台风气象灾情”、“电网因灾（台风）损失”、“电网因灾（台风）应急资源投入”等应急主题数据仓库,充分利用、开发相关的数据探查与ETL工具实现相关的数据集成,构建相关应急主题下的多维数据模型,并开展联机分析处理（OLAP）研究工作,为相关企业和部门开展电网应急管理工作提供应急辅助支持。     

基于大数据的特种设备宏观安全风险预警方法研究

特种设备监管机构在监督检验过程中积累了大量数据资料,为充分挖掘其中的潜在价值,增强监管针对性,提高检验效率,应用并优化关联规则挖掘、社区发现、可视化等数据挖掘技术,构建1种宏观安全风险预警方法。该方法以特种设备安全监督检验大数据为基础,通过挖掘单台设备微观因素间的关联关系,实现整类特种设备宏观安全风险的识别与预警;以2008—2016年全国长管拖车检验数据为例,进行应用实践分析。研究结果表明:该方法可以对区域范围、缺陷类别等多种宏观指标进行预警,指导针对性监管与检验。     

黄土高原水蚀风蚀交错区典型植被下土壤呼吸季节变化特征与影响因素

运用红外气体分析仪测定了黄土高原水蚀风蚀交错区典型植被下土壤呼吸,分析了不同土地利用方式下土壤呼吸与土壤温度、水分和土壤养分的关系.结果表明,不同植被下土壤呼吸季节变化特征区别明显,主要受水分和温度的影响.裸地、农地、苜蓿地、柠条地、撂荒地、长芒草地、荒草地、退化苜蓿地、坡地苜蓿地、坡地撂荒地、坡地农地、梯田农地的土壤呼吸季节变化范围分别为0.32～0.82、0.41～2.83、0.74～2.81、0.76～3.07、0.67～2.79、0.51～2.12、0.56～2.05、0.59～1.66、0.42～2.09、0.31～1.86、0.32～1.93和0.41～3.17μmol.(m2.s)-1,土壤呼吸速率的季节变化幅度以农地(167%～203%)最大,依次为撂荒地(117%～154%)、柠条地(134%)、长芒草地(129%)、苜蓿地(119%～120%)、裸地(94%),最小是退化苜蓿地(92%).裸地和退化苜蓿地的土壤呼吸季节变化幅度不大,苜蓿地和柠条地月平均土壤呼吸强度显著高于其他土地利用方式,农地在7、8月土壤呼吸强度显著高于其它土地利用方式,且其温度敏感性(Q10)也最大,达1.86.不同植被下,土壤呼吸和土壤有机质及速效钾含量呈显著正相关关系,有机质和全氮主要在水热条件好的7、8月影响土壤呼吸,而在温度与水分条件不优越的条件下,土壤铵态氮的含量与土壤呼吸强度呈负相关.     

土地利用方式对喀斯特山区土壤养分及有机碳活性组分的影响

通过对喀斯特山区5种土地利用方式(林地、 花椒林、 火龙果林、 退耕草丛和旱地)土壤养分和活性组分含量的比较研究,探讨了土壤质量对土地利用变化的响应。结果表明,林地土壤养分和活性组分含量最高,其中土壤有机碳、 微生物生物量碳、 氮、 磷、 易氧化有机碳和可溶性有机碳含量分别为44.80 g·kg^-1、 477.86 mg·kg^-1、 102.87 mg·kg^-1、 17.54 mg·kg^-1、 7.72 g·kg^-1和166.43 mg·kg^-1,土壤养分和活性组分含量总体按花椒林、 火龙果林、 退耕草丛和旱地依次下降。除旱地与经自然恢复15 a的退耕草丛土壤养分和活性组分含量较为接近,大多未达显著差异水平外,其他土地利用方式间土壤养分和活性组分均存在显著差异。冗余分析表明,土壤有机碳是影响活性组分变化的主要影响因子;花椒林对土壤养分和活性组分的累积效应仅次于林地,且明显高于火龙果林和旱地。研究阐明了喀斯特土壤的自然修复是一个非常缓慢的过程,需辅以必要的造林措施加速其恢复,花椒林可以作为喀斯特山区农业生产或生态恢复过程中优先考虑的植被类型。