中国主要城市疫情管控期间大气环境改善效应研究

利用我国31个省会(省府)城市、直辖市站点大气污染物数据,对全国主要城市2020年新冠疫情管控期间以及复工复产后的大气污染状况进行统计学分析。结果表明:叠加疫情管控影响,相比往年,2020年春节假期前后全国主要城市整体上PM₁₀、NO₂、SO₂、CO平均质量浓度降幅分别达到22.46%、60.13%、13.71%、17.64%;疫情管控期间全国主要城市PM_2.5与PM₁₀偏相关系数为0.952,PM_2.5与SO₂、NO₂、CO的偏相关系数分别为0.705、0.791、0.831。复工复产初期相较疫情管控期间仅有NO₂平均质量浓度上升;随着复工复产进程深入,PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂平均质量浓度则均有大幅度上升。采暖区SO₂和CO平均质量浓度在疫情管控期分别为非采暖区的2.6倍及1.6倍,两大区域在复工复产后各大气污染物质量浓度变化情况有所差异,也反映出采暖区与非采暖区的大气污染情况的不同。     

可见光/石墨相氮化碳/溴化氧铋/过二硫酸盐体系高效降解活性蓝19的增强效应及路径

为探究光催化降解蒽醌染料活性蓝19(RB19)过程中蒽醌的光敏特性对去除率的影响,以石墨相氮化碳/溴化氧铋(g-C₃N₄/BiOBr)为光催化材料,引入光照(vis)与过二硫酸盐(PS),构成协同催化氧化体系,考察光激发产物半醌自由基(Q⁻·)的形成及其参与、增强体系氧化能力的作用机制,采用单因素(材料投加量、初始pH、活性蓝19初始质量浓度、过硫酸盐投加量、光照强度)分析方法,探究Q⁻·增强效应的影响,使用降解动力学方法及LC/MS评估降解后废水的毒性。结果表明：Q⁻·的形成不仅加速了过硫酸盐的活化过程,Q⁻·与氢醌(H₂Q)、醌(Q)形成的循环作用也强化了材料的光催化效应,在模拟太阳光照射下(300 W),催化剂用量为0.1 g·L⁻¹和PS投加量为400 mg·L⁻¹时,Q⁻·引发的长链式自由基反应使该体系在 80 min内对40 mg·L⁻¹的RB19的降解率可达到100%;反应条件对催化效果影响的大小顺序为材料投加量>初始pH>RB19初始质量浓度>过硫酸盐投加量>光照强度;Q⁻·中间体的形成有效提高了体系内自由基的含量,是反应后废水毒性显著降低的主要原因。由此可知,体系内Q⁻·所引发的自降解自循环、长链式自由基效应是实现RB19高效降解的主要因素。本研究结果可为开发蒽醌类染料废水处理技术的开发及实际应用提供参考。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情医疗废物应急管理与处置

基于我国新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情医疗废物应急管理与处置体系建立过程,分析疫情初期医疗废物管理与处置短板,预测医疗废物产生量随患者人数发展的变化,提出医疗废物突出问题的解决方案。结果表明:及时构建重大疫情医疗废物全过程应急管理与处置技术体系有利于促进医疗废物分类分流管理与处置,迅速提升医疗废物应急处置能力;修正湖北省涉疫情医疗废物和医疗废物平均产生系数分别为3.35 kg/(人·d)和5.15 kg/(人·d);截至2020年6月6日,全国医疗废物处置能力从疫情前的4 902.8 t/d增至6 245.4 t/d,湖北省具备的医疗废物处置能力由疫情前的180 t/d增至667.4 t/d;疫情期间积累的医疗废物应急管理与技术经验对后疫情时期建立和强化医疗废物应急管理与处置机制具有借鉴意义。     

新冠肺炎疫情期间我国人群交通出行行为分析

为了解我国新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19,简称"新冠肺炎")疫情期间人群出行频次及交通方式,调查收集了2020年2月25日—3月14日我国31个省(自治区、直辖市) 8 330名居民疫情期间的出行频次及交通方式等信息,并分析了其影响因素;对我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)按疫情严重程度进行等级划分,分析不同疫情等级下人群交通出行方式的差异,并与非疫情期间进行对比.结果表明:①新冠肺炎疫情期间调查人群中有75.1%的人有出行行为,其中,5.5%的人一天多次外出,17.6%的人每周出行频次不到一次.出行过程中乘坐公共交通和出租车这两类感染风险较高的交通工具的人数占比分别为6.3%和4.0%.②新冠肺炎疫情期间,我国居民的出行频次和交通方式可能受性别、年龄、城乡、片区等人口统计学变量以及当地或附近疑似/确诊病例情况的影响,还可能与所在省份疫情严重程度有关.西藏自治区、青海省等地区人群出行频次及交通方式受疫情影响变化相对较小,湖北省居民出行频次及交通方式与非疫情期间相比变化最大.③新冠肺炎疫情期间,我国成人居民选择步行和小轿车(出租车和私家车)出行的人数占比远高于非疫情期间,而选择公共交通和...     

中国大气环境治理的新启示--来自武汉疫情管控期间的自然实验

在武汉疫情管控期间,企业经济活动和机动车活动水平明显大幅下降,大部分污染源基本停止排放,意味着在此期间全国各地区应该出现优良天气,但是事实上在我国部分地区却出现了严重雾霾天气,这种反预期现象引起人们的普遍关注,甚至怀疑我国大气环境治理是否存在失误。根据这种反预期现象,提出环境污染应当是由流量污染和存量污染共同决定的猜想。为验证这一猜想,分别假设了两种情况:第一种只有流量污染,第二种既有流量污染又有存量污染,并用武汉疫情管控前后的实际排放数据模拟得到空气质量状况,寻找雾霾形成的规律,然后与武汉疫情管控前后实际监测数据进行对比,确定反预期现象的原因。实际数据和模拟数据对比发现,实际情况与假设1不符,与假设2相符。据此认为,大气污染是由当期排放的污染与积累的存量污染共同决定。在此基础上,进一步分析存量污染造成的经济损失,分析表明:2007年被低估1.64亿元,到2017年被低估3.83亿元;在消散率为0.05、贴现率为0.01时,流量、存量和流量与存量损失的差额分别为6.5亿元、50.5亿元和44.0亿元,这意味着2007—2017年总的经济损失被低估44.0亿元。在消散率为0.3、贴现率为0.1时,流量、存量和流量与存量损失的差额分别为4.6亿元、10.5亿元和5.9亿元,这意味着2007—2017年总的经济损失被低估5.9亿元。研究发现,长期累积形成的存量污染是一个被忽视的大气污染源,从而解释了在武汉疫情管控期间低水平经济活动条件下仍然会出现重度大气污染的经验事实。其政策含义在于,制定反污染政策需要根据存量污染的特征进一步完善相关政策设计。     

Methodology for risk assessment of COVID-19 pandemic propagation

This paper proposes a methodology to perform risk analysis of the virus spread. It is based on the coupling between CFD modelling of bioaerosol dispersion to the calculation of probability of contact events. CFD model of near-field sneeze droplets dispersion is developed to build the SARS-CoV-2 effect zones and to adequately capture the safe distance. The most shared classification of droplets size distribution of sneezes was used.Droplets were modeled through additive heating/evaporation/boiling laws and their impact on the continuous phase was examined. Larger droplets move behind the droplet nuclei front and exhibit greater vertical drop due to the effect of gravity. CFD simulations provided the iso-risk curves extension (i.e., the maximum distance as well as the angle) enclosed by the incident outcome effect zone. To calculate the risk indexes, a fault tree was developed and the probability of transmission assuming as of the top event “COVID-19 infection” was calculated starting from the virus spread curve, as main base case. Four phases of virus spread evolution were identified: initiation, propagation, generalised propagation and termination. For each phase, the maximum allowable close contact was computed, being fixed the values of the acceptable risk index. In particular, it was found that during the propagation case, the maximum allowable close contacts is two, suggesting that at this point lockdown should be activated. The here developed methodology could drive policy containment design to curb spread COVID-19 infection.     

疫情期间人为源减排对城市大气氧化性的影响

近年来,中国经济发达地区以细颗粒物（PM_2.5）和臭氧（O₃）共同引发的区域性复合型大气污染事件频发,大气氧化性（AOC）在其中发挥着重要作用.基于WRF-CMAQ模型,以2020年疫情管控期为案例探究人为源减排对AOC的影响,选取中国东部3个典型城市（石家庄、南京和广州）进行深入分析,量化排放变化及气象变化对氧化剂和AOC变化的贡献,探讨AOC变化对二次污染物生成的影响.结果表明,与2019年同期相比,2020年石家庄、南京和广州的城市平均AOC分别增加了60%、48.7%和12.6%;氧化剂臭氧、羟基自由基和硝酸根自由基的浓度均有不同程度的增加（1.6%~26.4%、14.8%~73.3%和37.9%~180%）.排放变化使3个城市AOC分别增加了0.06×10^-4、0.12×10^-4和0.33×10^-4 min^-1,气象变化导致石家庄和南京AOC增加（分别为20%和17.9%）,但在广州却相反（-9.3%）.增强的AOC导致氮氧化速率和挥发性有机物氧化速率升高,即促进了一次污染物向二次污染物的转化,并抵消了部分一次减排的影响,造成了管控期间二次污染物相对排放的非线性变化.     

Linking empirical estimates of body burden of environmental chemicals and wellness using NHANES data

Biomonitoring of industrial chemicals in human tissues and fluids has shown that all people carry a “body burden” of synthetic chemicals. Although measurement of an environmental chemical in a person's tissues/fluids is an indication of exposure, it does not necessarily mean the exposure concentration is sufficient to cause an adverse effect. Since humans are exposed to multiple chemicals, there may be a combination effect (e.g., additive, synergistic) associated with low-level exposures to multiple classes of contaminants, which may impact a variety of organ systems. The objective of this research is to link measures of body burden of environmental chemicals and a “holistic” measure of wellness. The approach is demonstrated using biomonitoring data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES). Forty-two chemicals were selected for analysis based on their detection levels. Six biological pathway-specific indices were evaluated using groups of chemicals associated with each pathway. Five of the six pathways were negatively associated with wellness. Three non-zero interaction terms were detected which may provide empirical evidence of crosstalk across pathways. The approach identified five of the 42 chemicals from a variety of classes (metals, pesticides, furans, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) as accounting for 71% of the weight linking body burden to wellness. Significant interactions were detected indicating the effect of smoking is exacerbated by body burden of environmental chemicals. Use of a holistic index on both sides of the exposure-health equation is a novel and promising empirical “systems biology” approach to risk evaluation of complex environmental exposures.     

基于社会燃烧理论的突发公共卫生事件网络情绪传播模型

为有效引导和管控突发公共卫生事件网络舆情,考虑社会相关性和网络群体间情绪状态转移的不确定性,基于社会燃烧理论研究突发公共卫生事件网络情绪传播机制.首先基于社会燃烧理论分析网络用户群体的社会影响因素,建立未燃-阴燃-燃烧-抑燃-稳定(UDBFS)网络情绪传播模型和考虑干预措施的网络情绪传播模型;然后以新冠肺炎(COVID...     

The secret life of pets: The intersection of animals and organizational life

Although often overlooked, pets and other animals intersect with organizations in interesting, important ways. We seek to define how various animals intersect with organizations, highlight opportunities for theory development, and illustrate important areas for future research. We also explore how pandemics such as COVID-19 might affect the animals we highlight.