‘Natural’ disaster? A retrospect into the causes of the late-2004 typhoon disaster in Eastern Luzon, Philippines

Between 14 November and 4 December 2004, four successive tropical depressions and typhoons lashed the Eastern coast of Luzon in the Philippines. Heavy rainfall triggered massive landslides and devastating flash floods, which brought tremendous damage and killed more than 1600 people. Immediately after the disaster, there was a media and political consensus to incrimate ‘extraordinary’ natural phenomena and widespread deforestation as responsible for the catastrophe. We argue that the tragedy that befell the municipalities of General Nakar, Infanta and Real, among other devastated areas, is enmeshed in a deeper tangle of causal factors that are political, socio-economic and demographic in nature. These factors include unmanaged population growth, difficult access to land and resources, corruption within the government, and power of the elite.     

首都大学生的自然灾害认知调查与减灾教育建议

2006年国际减灾日的主题是"减灾始于学校",了解学生的灾害认知水平有助于减灾教育工作的有效开展。以北京5所高校的大学生为调查对象,通过问卷方式调查大学生对自然灾害的关注程度、防灾意识、灾害理论知识、应急行为知识以及对减灾教育的看法。问卷统计结果表明:大学生总体的灾害认知水平较低,现行减灾教育方式和内容与学生的期望有较大偏差。在此基础上,提出了减灾教育内容要将学生"该知道的"与"想知道的"相结合,通过演练演习等方式提高学生的防灾应急实际技能等减灾教育建议。     

碗窑碾压混凝土坝变形成因分析及监控指标的拟定

鉴于碗窑碾压混凝土重力坝个别变形测点测值异常现象,依据大坝变形观测资料,通过变形规律时空分析和统计模型的建立,以及影响因子的分解,合理地解释了其变形成因,从而得出碗窑水库大坝变形性态总体正常的结论。为确保大坝安全运行,通过建立有限元力学模型和混合模型,拟定了典型坝段坝顶水平位移的一级监控指标,进而更有效地监控大坝的安全性态。另外,就个别测点坝段时效有呈逐年缓慢上升的趋势,建议管理单位加强观测,并及时分析,确保工程安全运行。     

齿轮轴修复安全性探讨

对催化装置四机组运行状态进行分析,介绍了齿轮箱高速轴及轴瓦损坏的情况,并分析说明了引起损坏的原因。结合生产实际确定合理的齿轮轴修复工艺方案,即采用激光融敷表面修复高新技术,迅速可靠地对齿轮轴进行修复,保证了设备运行的可靠性,从而实现安全生产、节能降耗、效益增长。     

Public Willingness to Pay for Recovering and Downlisting Threatened and Endangered Marine Species

Abstract: Nonmarket valuation research has produced economic value estimates for a variety of threatened, endangered, and rare species around the world. Although over 40 value estimates exist, it is often difficult to compare values from different studies due to variations in study design, implementation, and modeling specifications. We conducted a stated‐preference choice experiment to estimate the value of recovering or downlisting 8 threatened and endangered marine species in the United States: loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta), leatherback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea), North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis), North Pacific right whale (Eubalaena japonica), upper Willamette River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Puget Sound Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), Hawaiian monk seals (Monachus schauinslandi), and smalltooth sawfish (Pristis pectinata). In May 2009, we surveyed a random sample of U.S. households. We collected data from 8476 households and estimated willingness to pay for recovering and downlisting the 8 species from these data. Respondents were willing to pay for recovering and downlisting threatened and endangered marine taxa. Willingness‐to‐pay values ranged from $40/household for recovering Puget Sound Chinook salmon to $73/household for recovering the North Pacific right whale. Statistical comparisons among willingness‐to‐pay values suggest that some taxa are more economically valuable than others, which suggests that the U.S. public's willingness to pay for recovery may vary by species.     

邯郸市沁河水污染治理方案

本文对邯郸市沁河水污染现状进行了调查分析，总结了城市内河治理经验，通过方案比较，推荐“清淤，护坡，建坝，分质截污，邯钢废水混凝沉淀处理”为沁河治理方案。     

Ecosystem mapping for the implementation of the European Biodiversity Strategy at the national level: The case of Italy

Several international initiatives, including the European Biodiversity Strategy to 2020, promote the identification and mapping of ecosystems as basic tools for the conservation of biodiversity and related services. On coarse scales, the spatial representation of ecosystems is usually based on broad land cover categories that largely overlook important ecological and biogeographic features of the biotic communities they are meant to exemplify. This paper presents a nationwide ecosystem mapping approach that promotes a degree of thematic detail, which is more suited than that found in the continental maps to meeting biodiversity conservation targets in Italy. The approach is based on the rationale that current and potential vegetation cover are valuable proxies for outlining ecosystems. The resulting Ecosystem Map of Italy includes 43 types of forest ecosystems instead of the 5 woodland, forest and other wooded land types recognized at the European level. We outline the expected advantages of this enhanced thematic detail for a number of conservation purposes and highlight how the resulting maps may help to meet biodiversity conservation targets at the national level. In particular, we refer to the assessment of conservation status, the definition of restoration priorities, the planning of green infrastructure and the identification of collapse risks for the ecosystems identified. Comprehensively, the definition, characterization and assessment of ecosystem types represent the carrying structure of the recently launched national system of natural capital accounting.     

Experiments comparing the use of kites and gas bangers to protect crops from woodpigeon damage

Woodpigeon damage to spring cabbage on two farms in different years was greatly reduced when a large kite was flown over the fields. Protection continued for over 3 months with no sign of habituation to the kite by pigeons. Woodpigeons avoided flying or settling within 250 m of the kite. Damage in fields with a gas banger exceeded that in fields with a kite, especially in severe winter weather. “Humming line” proved ineffectual in reducing damage. On these lowland farms it was necessary to launch the kite on most mornings, but if such launching can be carried out, kites can be effective in reducing damage by woodpigeons.     

Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

This article examines farmers’ livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing.     

确定岩体斜坡滑动面抗剪强度的动态反分析方法

滑动结构面的抗剪强度在岩体滑坡的稳定性计算中是最重要的参数,也是最难以确定的。基于岩体抗剪强度是多种因素影响下的随机变量这一认识前提下,本文以西柏坡“中共中央解放军总部”旧址滑坡为例提出了确定岩体斜坡滑动面抗剪强度的动态反分析方法,并对该方法获得的抗剪强度的实用性进行了分析。结果表明,反分析方法是获得岩体斜坡滑动面抗剪强度的最经济、合理的途径。