Parameter uncertainties in the modelling of vegetation dynamics—Effects on tree community structure and ecosystem functioning in European forest biomes

Dynamic vegetation models are useful tools for analysing terrestrial ecosystem processes and their interactions with climate through variations in carbon and water exchange. Long-term changes in structure and composition (vegetation dynamics) caused by altered competitive strength between plant functional types (PFTs) are attracting increasing attention as controls on ecosystem functioning and potential feedbacks to climate. Imperfect process knowledge and limited observational data restrict the possibility to parameterise these processes adequately and potentially contribute to uncertainty in model results. This study addresses uncertainty among parameters scaling vegetation dynamic processes in a process-based ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, designed for regional-scale studies, with the objective to assess the extent to which this uncertainty propagates to additional uncertainty in the tree community structure (in terms of the tree functional types present and their relative abundance) and thus to ecosystem functioning (carbon storage and fluxes). The results clearly indicate that the uncertainties in parameterisation can lead to a shift in competitive balance, most strikingly among deciduous tree PFTs, with dominance of either shade-tolerant or shade-intolerant PFTs being possible, depending on the choice of plausible parameter values. Despite this uncertainty, our results indicate that the resulting effect on ecosystem functioning is low. Since the vegetation dynamics in LPJ-GUESS are representative for the more complex Earth system models now being applied within ecosystem and climate research, we assume that our findings will be of general relevance. We suggest that, in terms of carbon storage and fluxes, the heavier parameterisation requirement of the processes involved does not widen the overall uncertainty in model predictions.     

Uncertainty analysis of climate change mitigation options in the forestry sector using a generic carbon budget model

Industrialized countries agreed on a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol. Many countries elected forest management activities and the resulting net balance of carbon emissions and removals of non-CO₂ greenhouse gases by forest management in their climate change mitigation measures. In this paper a generic dynamic forestry model (FORMICA) is presented. It has an empirical basis. Several modules trace C pools relevant for the Kyoto Protocol and beyond: biomass, litter, deadwood and soil, and harvested wood products. The model also accounts for the substitution of fossil fuels by wood products and bioenergy.     

Optimal resource management control for CO2 emission and reduction of the greenhouse effect

In recent years, the world has witnessed an ever-growing concern towards global warming caused by greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂). In order to reduce the emissions of CO₂ without limiting economic growth, substantial investments should target the development of clean technology and the expansion of forested areas. Considering the limited availability of resources, investments must be used in the most effective way. The present work proposes a method to efficiently manage these resources by applying the optimal control theory to a new mathematical model that describes the dynamics of the atmospheric CO₂. The contributions of this work are twofold: (1) present a model that describes the dynamic relation of CO₂ emission with investment in reforestation and clean technology and (2) present a method to efficiently manage the available resources by casting an optimal control problem. The mathematical model uses ordinary differential equations to relate the production of CO₂ with forest area and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The model parameters are adjusted to fit the actual published data. Given an appropriate performance index, the optimal solution is found by numerically solving the Two-Point Boundary Value Problem (TPBVP) that arises from the application of Pontriagyn's Maximum Principle. The sensitivity of the obtained numerical solution is evaluated with respect to the uncertainties in the model parameters. The main objective of this work is to provide a quantitative tool for the efficient allocation of resources to reduce the greenhouse effect caused CO₂ emissions.     

Cross-stacked super-aligned carbon nanotube/activated carbon composite electrodes for efficient water purification via capacitive deionization enhanced ultrafiltration

• A high-performance electrode was prepared with super-aligned carbon nanotubes. • SACNT/AC electrode achieved a ~100% increase in desalination capacity and rate. • SACNT/AC electrode achieved a ~26% increase in charge efficiency. • CUF process with SACNT/AC achieved an up to 2.43-fold fouling reduction. • SACNT/AC imparts overall improved water purification efficiency. The practical application of the capacitive deionization (CDI) enhanced ultrafiltration (CUF) technology is hampered due to low performance of electrodes. The current study demonstrated a novel super-aligned carbon nanotube (SACNT)/activated carbon (AC) composite electrode, which was prepared through coating AC on a cross-stacked SACNT film. The desalination capability and water purification performance of the prepared electrode were systematically investigated at different applied voltages (0.8–1.2 V) with a CDI system and a CUF system, respectively. In the CDI tests, as compared with the control AC electrode, the SACNT/AC electrode achieved an approximately 100% increase in both maximum salt adsorption capacity and average salt adsorption rate under all the applied voltage conditions, demonstrating a superior desalination capability. Meanwhile, a conspicuous increase by an average of ~26% in charge efficiency was also achieved at all the voltages. In the CUF tests, as compared with the control run at 0 V, the treatment runs at 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2 V achieved a 2.40-fold, 2.08-fold, and 2.43-fold reduction in membrane fouling (calculated according to the final transmembrane pressure (TMP) data at the end of every purification stage), respectively. The average TMP increasing rates at 0.8, 1.0, and 1.2 V were also roughly two times smaller than that at 0 V, indicating a dramatical reduction of membrane fouling. The SACNT/AC electrode also maintained its superior desalination capability in the CUF process, resulting in an overall improved water purification efficiency.     

Evaluation on the development degree of China’s seven pilot carbon markets

China is preparing to establish a nationwide carbon market in 2017, and in order to facilitate this goal, seven pilot carbon markets have been under study for the past few years. This paper summarizes the operation experience and challenges of the seven pilot carbon markets in China. It has been widely accepted that the essence of a carbon market is to solve environmental problems through market mechanisms, with environmental benefit being the fundamental purpose, market mechanism being the key measure, and policies and regulations being an important guarantee for an orderly carbon market. Therefore, this paper constructs an evaluation index system composed of 34 detailed sub-indexes in three dimensions, such as environmental constraint force, market resource allocation ability, and supporting policies and facility completeness. Through analyzing the operation data from 2013 to 2016, the weights of the sub-indexes are obtained. In addition, the study obtains experts’ opinions from over 10 carbon permits exchanges, consultancy firms and research institutions in China, and conducts a comprehensive evaluation on the development degree of the seven pilot carbon markets. Results show that the pilot carbon markets that include private SMEs as the covered entities for emissions control present relatively higher environmental constraint force. But too many covered entities could increase the difficulty of market performance management, while the pilots that include high energy-consuming state-owned enterprises as the entities for emissions control demonstrate a phenomenon of “high market compliance rate with low trading volume”. The resource allocation capability of China’s carbon market has not been effectively brought into play, and low degree of market participation has become an important constraint factor for market development. Due to the lack of laws and regulations at the national macro-level, the legally binding force of the pilot markets construction is obviously insufficient, and the supporting policies are lacking foresights. Generally, the development of China’s pilot carbon markets is still in such a fragmented state as in the aspects of environment, market and policy development, and the market operation has not yet achieved the purpose of solving environmental problems through market mechanisms. Accordingly, policy recommendations pointed out by this study are that tightening the allowance of free quota and progressively increasing the auction proportion, improving legal construction, increasing the services and products of carbon finance and standardizing the order of market transactions, enhancing capacity building of local governments and promoting the participation willingness and capability of emissions control entities, will be necessary.     

A review of research on China’s carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism

In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target (CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China’s economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from “research on carbon emission history” to “carbon emission trend prediction,” from “research on paths of realizing peak” to “peak restraint research,” provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China’s carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore, this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism. Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.     

The limits of democracy in tackling climate change

Previous research has shown that democracies exhibit stronger commitments to mitigate climate change and, generally, emit less carbon dioxide than non-democratic regimes. However, there remains much unexplained variation in how democratic regimes perform in this regard. Here it is argued that the benefits of democracy for climate change mitigation are limited in the presence of widespread corruption that reduces the capacity of democratic governments to reach climate targets and reduce CO₂ emissions. Using a sample of 144 countries over 1970–2011, the previously established relationship between the amount of countries’ CO₂ emissions and their level of democracy is revisited. It is empirically tested whether this relationship is instead moderated by the levels of corruption. The results indicate that more democracy is only associated with lower CO₂ emissions in low-corruption contexts. If corruption is high, democracies do not seem to do better than authoritarian regimes.     

Rubber tire life cycle assessment and the effect of reducing carbon footprint by replacing carbon black with graphene

This research utilizes real operating data from a tire plant operating in Central Taiwan to investigate the carbon footprint emissions (CO₂e) involved in producing the electric bicycle. The simulation results are based on the PAS 2050 standard using the SimaPro 7.3 software tool. Our results show the total carbon footprint emissions of 1.2-kg tire for the electric bicycle weighing 4.53-kg CO₂e, composed of 2.63-kg CO₂e from raw tire materials stage, 1.295-kg CO₂e from tire manufacturing stage, and 0.605-kg CO₂e from tire transport stage. An international certified organization, British Standard Institute (BSI), verified the accuracy of our results as 98.7%. We found that carbon emissions at the raw materials stage were higher than that for the other two stages – manufacturing and transportation. Carbon black was determined as the maximum source of carbon emissions at the raw material stage. To reduce the tire plant carbon emissions, this paper recommends using graphene to replace carbon black. Graphene has been reported by many researches to improve the properties of rubber products. From our simulation results, the carbon footprint emissions of 4.56-kg CO₂e of the origin tire plant uses 0.456-kg carbon black to produce 1.2-kg electric bicycle tires. This can be reduced to 4.29 (5.92%), 4.03 (11.62%), 3.75 (11.76%), and 3.49-kg CO₂e (23.46%) by using graphene to replace carbon black 25, 50, 75, and 100 wt% respectively. If we focus only on 0.456-kg carbon black producing 1.08-kg CO₂e, the reduced carbon footprint will be 0.812 (24.81%), 0.547 (49.35%), 0.28 (74.07%), and 0.0128-kg CO₂e (98.81%) by using graphene to replace carbon black 25, 50, 75, and 100 wt% respectively. From our analysis, graphene replacing carbon black can reduce carbon footprint. This has not been published previously and provides a direction for the tire plant to save carbon emissions.     

基于改进模型的区域生态足迹动态分析——以江苏省南通市为例

20世纪90年代以来,生态足迹模型作为定量化可持续评价的重要理论方法得到了广泛的应用。基于传统生态足迹模型,结合遥感产品净初级生产力数据,构建了基于净初级生产力的生态足迹模型,调整了均衡因子和产量因子,并增加了污染物账户。在此基础上,应用传统模型和改进后的模型分别计算了南通市2000~2013年的生态足迹。结果表明:(1)传统生态足迹模型和改进模型下的南通市2000~2013年人均生态足迹都是稳步增长的,改进后的模型变化较小;(2)南通市2000~2013年生态承载力虽有所波动,但整体上呈下降趋势;(3)南通市连续14年出现生态赤字,从2000年的0.308 6 hm~2/人上升到0.587 7 hm~2/人,生态系统处于不安全状态,生态系统的稳定性降低。可见,改进的生态足迹模型能更准确地反映研究区自然资源利用状况。最后,针对南通市生态不安全状况,从土地结构、能源消费等方面提出减少生态足迹的建议。     

基于压力-状态-响应模型的长株潭城市群生态承载力安全预警研究

在构建城市群生态承载力安全预警评价指标体系基础之上,通过数据的收集,利用灰色加权关联理论,计算了2006~2015年长株潭城市群生态承载力安全指数,并对各年份生态承载力安全警度进行了判定。计算结果显示：从总体来看,2006~2015年长株潭城市群生态承载力安全指数呈现出上升的趋势,安全警度由“高警”下降为“轻警”;从压力、状态、响应3个子系统来看,安全指数同样呈现出上升的趋势,安全警度则由“高警”或“中警”下降为“轻警”。分析表明：近些年长株潭城市群“两型社会”试验区相关资源与环境政策的实施效果是明显的。但我们也发现,试验区统计年份安全指数数值都在 0.700 0 之下,与 “无警”（0.850 0）状态距之甚远,长株潭“两型社会”建设依然任重而道远。