The elephant in the room – A comparative study of uncertainties in carbon offsets

The clean development mechanism (CDM) is a flexible mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it possible for developed countries to offset their emissions of greenhouse gases through investing in climate change mitigation projects in developing countries. When the mitigation benefit of a CDM project is quantified, measurable uncertainties arise that can be minimised using established statistical methods. In addition, some unmeasurable uncertainties arise, such as the rebound effect of demand-side energy efficiency projects. Many project types related to land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) have been excluded from the CDM in part because of the high degree of statistical uncertainty in measurements of the carbon sink and risk of non-permanence. However, recent discussions within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have opened up for the possibility of including more LULUCF activities in the future. In the light of this discussion, we highlight different aspects of uncertainties in LULUCF projects (e.g. the risk of non-permanence and the size of the carbon sink) in relation to other CDM project categories such as renewables and demand-side energy efficiency. We quantify the uncertainties, compare the magnitudes of the uncertainties in different project categories and conclude that uncertainties could be just as significant in CDM project categories such as renewables as in LULUCF projects. The CDM is a useful way of including and engaging developing countries in climate change mitigation and could be a good source of financial support for LULUCF mitigation activities. Given their enormous mitigation potential, we argue that additional LULUCF activities should be included in the CDM and other future climate policy instruments. Furthermore, we note that Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) are currently being submitted to the UNFCCC by developing countries. Unfortunately, the under-representation of LULUCF in comparison to its potential is evident in the NAMAs submitted so far, just as it has been in the CDM. Capacity building under the CDM may influence NAMAs and there is a risk of transferring the view on uncertainties to NAMAs.     

生态足迹方法的理论解析

论文系统地解析了生态足迹概念，在简要介绍生态足迹账户框架建立的假设条件，计算方法的基础上，系统总结了生态足迹最近的国际研究进展。同时，重点介绍了生态足迹计算中容易引起误解和疏忽的两个问题：化石能源用地的处理，均衡因子和产量因子的计算。在此基础上，从生态足迹计算过程中化石能源的处理和“利息”的处理两个角度评价了生态足迹方法的局限性。同时从贸易的处理缺乏可持续性基础，忽视国家和区域尺度上空间地理情况的差异，忽视人类社会对自然资产“利息”流的积累和储存，忽视自然资产存量的状况四个角度，分析了生态足迹在不同尺度上应用中存在的问题，最后通过将生态足迹分析还原到IPAT等式，并从热力学和生态经济学的角度解释了现有生态足迹分析政策建议少并且雷同、及其政策建议缺乏可操作性的实质价值的原因。     

Evaluation of municipal solid waste composting kinetics

Most modern municipal solid waste (MSW) composting operations have emphasized the enhancement of decomposition of the organic fraction of the waste to comply with strict environmental regulations. This can be achieved once the composting process kinetics are well understood. This study examined process kinetics through experimentation with bench-scale reactors under controlled composting conditions to show the interdependence between biological, chemical and physical factors during composting of MSW. The effects of temperature, moisture content, waste particle size and carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratio on process kinetics were evaluated. The results obtained revealed that these factors should be carefully controlled in order to achieve optimum process performance. It has been found that the organic matter degradation during composting follows a first-order kinetic model.     

基于生态足迹模型的中国发展可持续性评估

可持续发展的定量测度是可持续发展战略得心实施的重要条件，加拿大学者Mathis Wackemagel提出的生态中迹模型就是一种测量可持续的新方法，该方法通过计算支持特定区域人类社会所有消费活动所需要的土地（生态足迹）与该区域可提供的生物生产性土地（生态承载力0相比较来判断区域发展的可持续性，本文首先简单介绍了生态足迹模型的基本概念、计算方法，然后对中国2001年生态足迹进行了实证研究，研究结果表明，2001年中国人均生态足迹为1.47435hm^2而人均承载力只有1.05306hm^2，生态赤字为0.42129hm^2中国发展具有强不可持续性，现有生产、消费模式的转变是可持续发展的必然要求。     

Water and carbon fluxes above European coniferous forests modelled with artificial neural networks

Artificial neural networks are used to select a minimal set of input variables to model water vapour and carbon exchange of coniferous forest ecosystems, independently of tree species and without detailed physiological information. Neural networks are used because of their power to fit highly non-linear relations between input and output-variables. Radiation, temperature, vapour pressure deficit and time of the day showed to be the dynamic input variables that determine ecosystem water fluxes. The same variables, together with projected leaf area index are needed for modelling CO₂-fluxes. The results for the individual sites show that the neural networks found mean water and carbon flux responses to the driving variables valid for all sites. The sensitivity analysis of the derived neural networks shows that the LAI-effect of the CO₂-flux model is overfitted because of the low variability of LAI. However, the predictions of CO₂-fluxes of sites not included in the calibration set indicate that the LAI-response of the network is reliable and that results can be used as a first estimate of the net ecosystem carbon exchange of the forest sites. Independent predictions of forest ecosystem vapour fluxes were equally satisfying as empirical models specifically calibrated for the individual sites. The results indicate that both short term water and carbon fluxes of European coniferous forests can be modelled without using detailed physiological and site specific information.     

BVOC emissions, photosynthetic characteristics and changes in chloroplast ultrastructure of Platanus orientalis L. exposed to elevated CO2 and high temperature

To investigate the interactive effects of increasing [CO₂] and heat wave occurrence on isoprene (IE) and methanol (ME) emissions, Platanus orientalis was grown for one month in ambient (380 μmol mol⁻¹) or elevated (800 μmol mol⁻¹) [CO₂] and exposed to high temperature (HT) (38 °C/4 h). In pre-existing leaves, IE emissions were always higher but ME emissions lower as compared to newly-emerged leaves. They were both stimulated by HT. Elevated [CO₂] significantly reduced IE in both leaf types, whereas it increased ME in newly-emerged leaves only. In newly-emerged leaves, elevated [CO₂] decreased photosynthesis and altered the chloroplast ultrastructure and membrane integrity. These harmful effects were amplified by HT. HT did not cause any unfavorable effects in pre-existing leaves, which were characterized by inherently higher IE rates. We conclude that: (1) these results further prove the isoprene's putative thermo-protective role of membranes; (2) HT may likely outweigh the inhibitory effects of elevated [CO₂] on IE in the future.     

Does nitrogen deposition increase forest production? The role of phosphorus

Effects of elevated N deposition on forest aboveground biomass were evaluated using long-term data from N addition experiments and from forest observation plots in Switzerland. N addition experiments with saplings were established both on calcareous and on acidic soils, in 3 plots with Fagus sylvatica and in 4 plots with Picea abies. The treatments were conducted during 15 years and consisted of additions of dry NH₄NO₃ at rates of 0, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. The same tree species were observed in permanent forest observation plots covering the time span between 1984 and 2007, at modeled N deposition rates of 12-46 kg N ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. Experimental N addition resulted in either no change or in a decreased shoot growth and in a reduced phosphorus concentration in the foliage in all experimental plots. In the forest, a decrease of foliar P concentration was observed between 1984 and 2007, resulting in insufficient concentrations in 71% and 67% of the Fagus and Picea plots, respectively, and in an increasing N:P ratio in Fagus. Stem increment decreased during the observation period even if corrected for age. Forest observations suggest an increasing P limitation in Swiss forests especially in Fagus which is accompanied by a growth decrease whereas the N addition experiments support the hypothesis that elevated N deposition is an important cause for this development.     

An LCA model for waste incineration enhanced with new technologies for metal recovery and application to the case of Switzerland

A process model of municipal solid waste incinerators (MSWIs) and new technologies for metal recovery from combustion residues was developed. The environmental impact is modeled as a function of waste composition as well as waste treatment and material recovery technologies. The model includes combustion with a grate incinerator, several flue gas treatment technologies, electricity and steam production from waste heat recovery, metal recovery from slag and fly ash, and landfilling of residues and can be tailored to specific plants and sites (software tools can be downloaded free of charge). Application of the model to Switzerland shows that the treatment of one tonne of municipal solid waste results on average in 425 kg CO₂-eq. generated in the incineration process, and 54 kg CO₂-eq. accrue in upstream processes such as waste transport and the production of operating materials. Downstream processes, i.e. residue disposal, generates 5 kg CO₂-eq. Savings from energy recovery are in the range of 67 to 752 kg CO₂-eq. depending on the assumptions regarding the substituted energy production, while the recovery of metals from slag and fly ash currently results in a net saving of approximately 35 kg CO₂-eq. A similar impact pattern is observed when assessing the MSWI model for aggregated environmental impacts (ReCiPe) and for non-renewable resource consumption (cumulative exergy demand), except that direct emissions have less and no relevance, respectively, on the total score. The study illustrates that MSWI plants can be an important element of industrial ecology as they provide waste disposal services and can help to close material and energetic cycles.     

Roles of Patch Characteristics,Drought Frequency,and Restoration in Long‐Term Trends of a Widespread Amphibian

Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long‐term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg‐mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state‐space and linear‐regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long‐term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido     

Theoretical analysis of change in forest carbon use efficiency with stand development: A case study on Hinoki Cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.) plantation from the seedling stage

Changes in carbon use efficiency (CUE), which is defined as the ratio of net primary production (NPP) to gross primary production (GPP), were estimated for the aerial parts of the Hinoki Cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa (Sieb. et Zucc.) Endl.) with respect to stand development. The analysis incorporated previously published data from the early stages of stand development, namely the seedling stages of the cypress. For this analysis, a simple mathematical model to assess the changes in CUE was developed by incorporating data on physiological variables and mass of woody species. The CUE tended to increase with increases in the aboveground biomass of the stand, and then decreased gradually despite increases in the aboveground biomass. The CUE-value (0.28, 0.39) of the seedling stage was lower than that (0.33-0.58) of the young or mature trees. To examine the effect of physiological variables and mass on CUE, the ratios of the specific respiration rate to the specific photosynthetic rate (r/a) and the leaf biomass to the aboveground biomass or leaf mass ratio (y_L/y_T) were calculated. The low value of CUE at the seedling stage was due to the high ratio of specific respiration rate to specific photosynthetic rate r/a, but was not due to the high value of the leaf mass ratio y_L/y_T. In addition, the decline in CUE associated with older stages of stand development was due to the decreasing changes in y_L/y_T, and the r/a ratio did not influence the change in CUE.