Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

Damage to offshore oil and gas facilities following hurricanes Katrina and Rita: An overview

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the centre of the American petrochemical industry, shutting down eight refineries, hundreds of oil-drilling and production platforms, and many other industrial facilities. Furthermore, it triggered unprecedented numbers of hazardous-materials releases from industrial facilities and storage terminals onshore, as well as from oil and gas production facilities offshore in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). In this paper, we analyse the damage caused by the two hurricanes on the offshore oil and gas industry. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused the largest number of destroyed and damaged platforms and pipelines, and the highest number of mobile offshore drilling units set adrift in the history of GoM operations. Following the hurricanes, changes have been proposed to operating and emergency procedures, maintenance requirements, and design practices including mooring practices for mobile offshore drilling units.     

HAN阻隔防爆模型研究

通过合理简化,利用多方气体状态方程,分别建立油品储运容器内可燃混合气体定容爆炸模型和装设阻隔防爆材料的油品储运容器内可燃混合气体爆炸模型,获得了阻隔防爆性能测试装置的燃爆容器抗爆设计限值,以及其在HAN阻隔防爆测试中燃爆容器试爆压力量级的控制下限值,同时,还给出HAN工程应用中容器留空率的计算方法,具有实际指导意义。     

基于灰建模的瓦斯含量多变量预测模型研究

研究了GM(1,N)、GM(0,N)瓦斯含量预测模型的数学原理,收集郑煤集团告成矿地质勘探期间及生产期间的瓦斯含量实测资料,获得16个可靠点,选取基岩厚度、新生界厚度、煤层厚度、煤层水分、煤层灰分、50m顶板含砂率6个因素作灰色建模预测的指标,分别建立了GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量多变量预测模型。根据计算和评价结果,GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量预测模型精度均能够满足工程精度的要求,说明利用灰色模型来预测瓦斯含量是可行的。由于前者精度略高于后者,故建议告成矿采用GM(1,6)模型来进行未知地区煤层瓦斯含量的预测。需要注意,由于模型没有考虑构造的影响,在实际预测时,还应根据构造对待预测区的影响关系和影响程度对模型的预测结果进行修正。     

矿井瓦斯煤尘爆炸传播数值模拟研究

基于连续相、燃烧、颗粒相数理方程建立瓦斯煤尘爆炸传播数理模型,并应用连续相、颗粒相计算方法,依据大型巷道瓦斯爆炸、瓦斯煤尘爆炸传播实验数据,借助普遍应用的流场模拟平台,成功开发瓦斯、煤尘爆炸数值模拟系统。该系统可有效地模拟煤矿瓦斯、煤尘的爆炸事故过程,对瓦斯爆炸的爆燃转爆轰、煤尘是否参与爆炸、爆炸冲击传播速度、衰减规律以及爆炸灾害的波及范围都能进行较准确的模拟。     

气体二氧化氯对葡萄表面细菌杀菌规律研究

研究气体二氧化氯杀灭金黄色葡萄球菌、大肠杆菌、李斯特单增菌和腐生酵母菌4种葡萄表面的危险致病菌的杀菌规律。在实验范围内,随着气体二氧化氯浓度的增加和杀菌时间的延长,杀菌效果明显增加。当杀菌时间超过12min,杀菌量级几乎不再增加。杀菌效率随温度的增加而减小,在实验温度条件下,只有大肠杆菌的杀菌效果减少了5.38～6.09log量级,其他3种菌均减少了6log量级以上,杀菌作用温度在实验条件下对杀菌效果影响不大。研究表明,当气体二氧化氯的杀菌浓度为25mgl-1、杀菌时间12min、杀菌温度25℃的条件下,金黄色葡萄球菌、李斯特单增菌和腐生酵母菌均减少了6.4log量级以上,而大肠杆菌达到5.76log量级;同时表明二氧化氯气体的杀菌保鲜功能也是食品安全技术非热杀菌手段。     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故演化的突变模型

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故,从微观上看,是在瓦斯积聚、引火源和氧气浓度3个条件同时具备的情况下发生的,从宏观上看,是在生产活动中存在人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致了微观3条件的同时具备。笔者介绍了突变理论的基本原理;在轨迹交叉事故致因理论基础上,分析了瓦斯爆炸事故演化的非线性特征;建立了事故演化的尖点突变模型。并指出:事故演化是一个流变-突变过程,其突变的程度反映了事故的严重度;人的不安全行为是事故发生的主要因素;物的因素决定事故的严重度;安全生产必须建立本质安全型矿井,避免人和物的运动轨迹越过分歧点集。     

城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案的决策分析

通过对近年来的城市燃气管道事故抢险统计数据的分析与研究,管道事故抢险方案的选择存在着很大的主观性和片面性.为了克服应急抢修方案的种种局限,笔者应用模糊综合评判方法建立了城市燃气管道事故应急抢修方案评价选择模型;考虑可靠性、抢修时间、事故损失、抢险费用、社会影响及政治影响等6类影响因素来评判抢修方案的优劣,可以科学合理地选择最佳的管道事故应急抢修方案,达到经济合理、快速可靠的目的;实例验证,评判模型对城市燃气管道事故抢险具有重要的现实意义和参考价值.     

城市天然气管道风险特征与肯特法的改进

根据城市高压天然气管道特点,将适合于城市天然气管道风险分析的肯特评分法加以改进,包括调整评分项目和事故因素权重,使其成为适于城市天然气管道的风险分析法。将改进后的肯特评分法应用于常州21km高压天然气管道的风险评价,得出8个相对高风险管段,其分析结果可作为安全管理人员合理分配维护资源的理论依据。工程应用实例证明:改进后的肯特法具有较强的可行性,是城市高压天然气管道风险评估的有效工具。     

煤与瓦斯突出的物理模拟和数值模拟研究

利用自行设计的实验装置,通过现场采集具有突出倾向的煤样,分别向实验装置煤样中充入吸附能力较大的CO2和吸附能力较小的N2来模拟不同级别的煤与瓦斯突出现象,物理试验结果表明:瓦斯压力越大,突出强度越大;当瓦斯压力相近时,吸附和解吸能力大的瓦斯突出强度大。通过数值模拟对煤与瓦斯突出进行研究,数值模拟再现了煤矿开采过程中诱发的煤与瓦斯突出全过程,同时验证了煤与瓦斯突出是瓦斯压力、地应力及煤岩体的力学性质综合作用的结果,该验证对进一步深入理解认识煤与瓦斯突出的机理具有重要的理论和实践意义。