基于人差错纠正能力的人因可靠性模型研究

根据人-机系统中人的操作行为具有时序性和差错可纠正性的特点,结合船舶舱室行为形成主因子,开展船舶舱室人因可靠性研究。以人因失误的时序性和差错纠正参数为基础,建立人-机系统中操作者行为模式和人因失误事件树模型。通过对人的差错纠正能力的分析,开展人因可靠性量化模型纠正理论研究。最后,以船舶舱室操作台的监控任务人因可靠性为例进行量化计算,定量评估操作人员执行任务的可靠度。     

基于FTA法的电动车火灾事故的分析

本文利用FTA(事故树)法分析了电动车弓l发火灾事故的主要原因.通过建立电动车引发火灾的事故树,并计算事故树的最小割集,最小径集与基本事件的结构重要度,从而提出预防火灾的安全防范措施.     

Using classification trees to analyze the impact of exotic species on the ecological assessment of polder lakes in Flanders, Belgium

Polder lakes in Flanders are stagnant waters that were flooded by the sea in the past. Several of these systems are colonized by exotic species, but have hardly been studied until present. The aim of the present study was: (1) to assess the influence of exotic macrobenthic species on the outcome of the Multimetric Macroinvertebrate Index Flanders (MMIF) and (2) to use classification trees for evaluating to what extent physical-chemical characteristics affect the presence of exotic species.In total, 27 mollusc and 10 macro-crustacean species were present in the monitored lakes of which respectively five and four were exotic. The exclusion of the exotic species from the MMIF resulted in a significant decline of this ecological index (−0.03 ± 0.04; p = 0.00). This elimination often resulted into a lower ecological water quality class and more samples were classified into the bad and poor ecological water quality classes.Single-target classification trees for Gammarus tigrinus and Potamopyrgus antipodarum were constructed, relating environmental parameters and ecological status (MMIF) to the occurrence of both exotic invasive species. The major advantages of using single-target classification trees are the transparency of the rule sets and the possibility to use relatively small datasets. However, this classification technique only predicts a single-target attribute and the trees of the different species are often hard to integrate and use for water managers. As a solution, a multi-target approach was used in the present study. Exotic molluscs and crustaceans communities were modelled based on environmental parameters and the ecological status (MMIF) using multi-target classification trees. Multi-target classification trees can be used in management planning and investment decisions as they can lead to integrated decisions for the whole set of exotic species and avoid the construction of many models for each individual species. These trees provide general insights concerning the occurrence patterns of individual crustaceans and molluscs in an integrated way.     

A multiple additive regression tree analysis of three exposure measures during Hurricane Katrina

This paper analyses structural and personal exposure to Hurricane Katrina. Structural exposure is measured by flood height and building damage; personal exposure is measured by the locations of 911 calls made during the response. Using these variables, this paper characterises the geography of exposure and also demonstrates the utility of a robust analytical approach in understanding health‐related challenges to disadvantaged populations during recovery. Analysis is conducted using a contemporary statistical approach, a multiple additive regression tree (MART), which displays considerable improvement over traditional regression analysis. By using MART, the percentage of improvement in R‐squares over standard multiple linear regression ranges from about 62 to more than 100 per cent. The most revealing finding is the modelled verification that African Americans experienced disproportionate exposure in both structural and personal contexts. Given the impact of exposure to health outcomes, this finding has implications for understanding the long‐term health challenges facing this population.     

九连山自然保护区常绿阔叶林冰雪灾害研究

以九连山国家级自然保护区典型常绿阔叶林为对象,研究树木属性、地形因子与冰雪灾害受损程度的关系.结果表明:九连山常绿阔叶林(DBH≥10 cm)以栲属物种占据主要优势.断梢率、腰折率、翻蔸率和平均受损指数(MDI)最高的树种分别为马尾松、米槠、丝栗栲和米槠,最低的树种分别为红楠、丝栗栲、枫香和罗浮柿.断梢率与胸径(DBH)、树高(H)显著正相关(P<0.01),与H/DBH显著负相关(P<0.01);腰折率与DBH显著负相关(P<0.01);翻蔸率与DBH显著负相关(P<0.01).林分受损程度分析显示,在22≤DBH<24 cm、15≤H<17 m或100≤H/DBH<110时,MDI值最高,在40≤DBH<42 cm、5≤H<7 m或H/DBH≥120时,MDI值最低.坡向对腰折率和MDI值影响显著(P<0.01),N-NE生境中MDI值最高;坡度对树木不同受损指标影响不显著(P>0.05),坡度30°～40°生境中MDI值最高.     

绿色屋顶雨洪调控能力与效益评价

日益频发的城市内涝灾害引起了社会各界的广泛关注,其主要原因是快速城市化导致的不透水面增加.绿色屋顶能够有效增加城市透水面面积,进而从源头上控制雨水径流,具有重要的生态环境效益.本文以南京市金陵小学行政楼的绿色屋顶为研究区,收集了17个月（2016-06~2017-10）中的76起降雨与径流数据,探讨了场地尺度上绿色屋顶的综合径流调控能力,辨识了影响其径流调控能力的主要因素,并基于生命周期评价理论与方法对其30年生命周期下的雨洪调控效益进行了定量评价.结果表明：①该绿色屋顶的平均截流率为62.7%,可有效削减雨水径流量和洪峰流量、延缓径流发生时间和峰现时间.②绿色屋顶对于中小型降雨具有较强的截流能力,但当其滞留能力达到饱和状态或未完全恢复时,即使是小型降雨,其截流能力也会大幅降低.③绿色屋顶径流调控能力的主要影响因素为降雨量、降雨强度和生长基质含水量.④绿色屋顶建设的成本效率为12.51元·m^-3,费效比为5/12（0.41）,经济效益较高.本研究结果可为绿色屋顶的规划建设、推广普及政策制定提供重要的科学依据和决策参考.     

基于二叉决策树的高职毕业生创业状况调查研究

基于二叉决策树分类技术对河北省大中专毕业生创业状况调查数据进行理性分析,结果发现：创业目的、环境和时机,政府扶持大学生创业的优惠政策,对于高职毕业生创业倾向起到了重要的作用。针对高职毕业生创业的现状,提出全面提高个人素质、正确引导创业教育、加大政府创业扶持力度等对策建议。     

城市燃气管道环境风险评价和管理探讨

城市燃气输配管线使用年限过长,事故频发,安全隐患多,需对城市燃气管道进行环境风险评价。文章通过事故树分析,找出导致城市燃气管网泄漏的基本事件,介绍城市燃气管道环境风险识别、源项分析、后果计算、风险评价、风险管理等各个环节的内容和方法,提出了燃气管道在设计、建设及运行阶段加强环境风险管理的具体措施。该分析方法能够发现影响城市燃气管道安全的因素,解决存在的隐患问题,加强城市燃气管线的管理,对城市燃气管道环境风险评估和管理具有指导作用。     

Forest-tundra larch forests and climatic trends

Climate-related changes that occurred in the Ary-Mas larch forests (the world’s northernmost forest range) in the last three decades of the 20th century have been analyzed. An analysis of remote-sensing images made by Landsat satellites in 1973 and 2000 has provided evidence for an increase in the closeness of larch forest canopy (by 65%) and the expansion of larch to the tundra (for 3–10 m per year) and to areas relatively poorly protected from wind due to topographic features (elevation, azimuth, and slope). It has also been shown that the radial tree increment correlates with summer temperatures (r = 0.65, τ = 0.39) and the amounts of precipitation in summer (r = ?0.51, τ = 0–41) and winter (r = ?0.70, τ = ?0.48), decreases with an increase in the closeness of forest canopy (r = ?0.52, p > 0.8; τ = ?0.48, p > 0.95), and increases with an increase in the depth of soil thawing (r = 0.63, p > 0.9; τ = 0.46, p > 0.9). The density of undergrowth depends on temperatures in winter (τ = 0.53, p > 0.8) and summer (r = 0.98, p > 0.99, τ = 0.9, p > 0.99) and the date of the onset of the growing period (r = ?0.60, p > 0.99; τ = ?0.4, p > 0.99) and negatively correlates with the amount of precipitation in summer (r = ?0.56, p > 0.99, τ = ?0.38, p > 0.99).     

Distribution of frost injuries in the wood of conifers

The distribution of frost injuries in earlywood and latewood, in different zones of stem (with respect to height, diameter, and circumference), and at the bases of large roots has been studied in Siberian spruce (Picea obovata Ledeb.) and Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) at the northern limit of their ranges (the Obsko-Tazovskaya forest-tundra). It has been shown that a high frequency of frost injuries, especially in spruce, is characteristic of the study region. Mass frost injuries occur only in thin trees, mainly in the lower part of stems. Guidelines for collecting and preparing wood samples for the study of frost injuries are proposed.