基于安全屏障模型的海上钻完井作业风险分析

海上钻完井作业面临海洋环境恶劣、浅层地质灾害等复杂工况,极易发生油气泄漏、井喷等事故。为有效预防海上钻完井作业事故,提出基于瑞士奶酪模型的安全屏障模型。采用事故树和故障模式及影响分析相结合的方法,分析作业过程风险。该模型根据挪威标准D-010,建立完井作业关井阶段的物理安全屏障和安全屏障控制原理图,在此基础上构建油气泄漏事故树和失效模式与影响分析表,找出关井阶段可能的油气泄漏途径。通过对重要度计算和风险优先度值排序确定作业过程中最薄弱的安全屏障和关键故障模式。结果表明,作业过程中最薄弱的安全屏障是采油树、油管和地面控制井下安全阀(SCSSV),采油树腐蚀、密封失效、油管接头密封失效和SCSSV开关故障是影响作业过程的关键故障模式。     

气候变化对珙桐分布的潜在影响

分析气候变化对植物分布的影响,对气候变化影响下的生物多样性保护具有重要意义. 利用分类和回归树 (Classification and Regression Tree,CART)生态位模型,设定A1,A2,B1和B2 4种气候变化情景,模拟分析了气候变化对珙桐(Davidia involucrata Baill)分布的影响. 结果表明:随气候变化,珙桐目前适宜分布范围将减小,但新适宜及总适宜分布范围将扩大;珙桐适宜分布范围在模拟时段呈缩小趋势,在A1情景下减幅最大,B1情景下减幅最小. 气候变化后,由于珙桐目前适宜分布范围的东部、南部、北部、东北部和东南部地区缩小,而新适宜分布范围将主要向我国西部及西南部地区扩展,因此,目前适宜分布范围将被破碎化. 气温变化对珙桐分布范围的影响大于降水量的影响.      

Foliage profiles of individual trees determine competition,self-thinning,biomass and NPP of a Cryptomeria japonica forest stand: A simulation study based on a stand-scale process-based forest model

A simulation study was carried out to investigate simultaneously the effects of eco-physiological parameters on competitive asymmetry, self-thinning, stand biomass and NPP in a temperate forest using an atmosphere–vegetation dynamics interactive model (MINoSGI). In this study, we selected three eco-physiological relevant parameters as foliage profiles (i.e. vertical distribution of leaf area density) of individual trees (distribution pattern is described by the parameter η), biomass allocation pattern in individual tree growth (χ) and the maximum carboxylation velocity (V_max). The position of the maximal leaf area density shifts upward in the canopy with increasing η. For scenarios with η < 4 (foliage concentrated in the lowest canopy layer) or η > 12 (foliage concentrated in the uppermost canopy layer), a low degree of competitive asymmetry was produced. These scenarios resulted in the survival of subordinate trees due to a brighter lower canopy environment when η < 4 or the generation of spatially separated foliage profiles between dominant and subordinate trees when η > 12. In contrast, competition between trees was most asymmetric when 4 ≤ η ≤ 12 (vertically widespread foliage profile in the canopy), especially when η = 8. In such cases, vertically widespread foliage of dominant trees lowered the opportunity of light acquisition for subordinate trees and reduced their carbon gain. The resulting reduction in carbon gain of subordinate trees yielded a higher degree of competitive asymmetry and ultimately higher mortality of subordinate trees. It was also shown that 4 ≤ η ≤ 12 generated higher self-thinning speed, smaller accumulated NPP, litter-fall and potential stand biomass as compared with the scenarios with η < 4 or η > 12. In contrast, our simulation revealed small effects of χ or V_max on the above-mentioned variables as compared with those of η. In particular, it is notable that greater V_max would not produce greater potential stand biomass and accumulated NPP although it has been thought that physiological parameters relevant to photosynthesis such as V_max influence dynamic changes in forest stand biomass and NPP (e.g. the greater the V_max, the greater the NPP). Overall, it is suggested that foliage profiles rather than biomass allocation or maximum carboxylation velocity greatly govern forest dynamics, stand biomass, NPP and litter-fall.     

福州市行道树对交通污染物扩散的影响

选择福州市中心城区3种典型的行道树结构作为研究对象,以CO为交通污染物的示踪气体,分别对绿化带两侧,即道路中央和人行道上CO浓度的时空变化进行了测定,分析了道路中央CO浓度与人行道上CO浓度的差值ΔC。研究结果表明:不同结构的行道树对交通污染物扩散有显著影响。主干道低覆盖度结构,最有利于交通污染物扩散;主干道高覆盖度结构和支路结构,则不利于交通污染物的扩散,使大量污染物涌入人行道,对行人健康构成危害。交通污染物的扩散效果取决于树冠结构,通过对各道路树冠结构的研究发现,疏透度与覆盖度均较小时,扩散效果最好;疏透度较大、覆盖度也较大时,扩散效果最差。     

西安东郊某废弃钢铁厂油松年轮记录的重金属含量变化过程

以西安市东郊某废弃钢铁厂为例,采用石墨炉原子吸收法、电感耦合等离子体原子发射光谱法、原子荧光法测定了废弃钢铁厂两棵油松(Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.)树盘及其根部土壤中重金属Cr、Mn、Hg、Zn、Pb、Cd和类金属As以及P等8种元素的含量.土壤测定结果表明,该地区Cr、Zn、As等元素含量超过了西安市郊区土壤背景值,Cr、Mn等元素易在深层土壤中积累,Hg、Zn等元素不易在深层土壤中积累.两个树盘年轮中这8种元素的含量随着年代的推移总体呈现上升的趋势,这表明该地区由这些元素引起的污染状况日益加重.Hg、Pb、Cd等元素于1996年左右吸收达到最高峰,与该钢铁厂生产历史相一致.这两个树盘中Mn、Hg、Zn、As、P等元素自1993年后均呈现比较一致的增长趋势.通过计算各元素的自相关系数,从统计学角度发现这8种元素在油松年轮中的迁移特征:Mn、Zn、As等元素均存在着3年的横向迁移趋势,Pb、P存在2年的迁移趋势,Hg、Cd有1年的迁移,而Cr几乎不迁移,其中Zn、Cd、P等元素在油松中的迁移趋势与西安市西部某地区椿树和桐树中的迁移趋势表现一致.     

厦门14种主要树种吸收硫及固碳能力

对厦门市14种主要树种吸硫强度以及不同环境(清洁环境和污染环境)对其固碳能力的影响进行研究。结果表明:不同树种叶片的吸硫强度在0.04~1.73 mg/g。单位绿地面积不同树种净化SO2量为8.84~1 513.05kg/(hm2·a),其中天竺桂最大,其次为黄槿、芒果和刺桐,洋紫荆最小。多数树种在污染环境下单位绿地面积年固碳量受到明显抑制,如大叶榕、高山榕、小叶榕和印度紫檀等树种。然而还有些树种其固碳能力在污染环境下受到促进,如鸡冠刺桐、夹竹桃和小叶榄仁,表明这些树种对污染环境有较强的适应能力。综上所述,夹竹桃、小叶榄仁和天竺桂等树种既能吸收相当数量的硫,同时其固碳能力未受到削弱,表明这些树种是适宜在污染环境下种植的树种。     

Using T-RFLP technology to analyze bacterial diversity in the rhizospheric soils of tea tree at different ages北大核心CSCD

The rhizospheric soils of Tieguanyin at different ages were used as the study materials, and terminal-restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) was used to analyze the changes in bacterial diversity. The results showed that the number of T-RFs, Simpson index, and Shannon index decreased significantly with the age of the tea tree. Results of correlation analysis showed that 9 T-RFs from the bacterial community were significantly and positively correlated with the age of the tea tree, and included 34 species of microbes belonging to 10 classes. The 34 microbes were divided into 6 types according to their functional attributes, and included pathogenic bacteria, bacteria that improved soil texture or inhibited pathogenic bacteria, and bacteria associated with the carbon, nitrogen, or sulfur cycles, in which the percentage of pathogenic bacteria was 58.82%. Seventeen T-RFs were significantly and negatively correlated with the age of the tea tree, and included 38 species of bacteria belonging to 12 classes. The 38 bacterial species were divided into 5 types according to their functional attributes, and included pathogenic bacteria, bacteria that improved soil quality or inhibited pathogenic bacteria, and bacteria associated with the carbon cycle or nitrogen cycle, in which all the others, barring the pathogenic bacteria, accounted for 78.95% of the bacterial population. In brief, the diversity and function of bacteria in the rhizospheric soil of tea tree changed significantly with the age of the tea tree, which provides a theoretical basis for studying the interactions of bacterial communities. © 2018 Science Press. All rights reserved.     

森林可燃物可持续管理技术理论与研究

实现森林可燃物可持续管理是减少和控制森林火灾的基础。本文介绍了基于可物管理的防火林带和计划火烧的预防和控制森林火灾方法。     

齐齐哈尔市乡土树种与行道树选择

本文叙述了齐齐哈尔市乡土树种的选择,并根据园林树种的功能配置选择行道树。     

System failure probability evaluation using fault tree analysis and expert opinions in intuitionistic fuzzy environment

In quantitative fault tree analysis of a system, exact failure probability values of components are utilized to calculate the failure probability of the system. However, in many real world problems, it is problematic to get precise and sufficient failure data of system components due to insufficient or imprecise information about components, changing environment or new components. A methodology has already been developed by employing fuzzy set theory for the system reliability evaluation by utilizing qualitative failure data of system components when quantitative failure data of components are inaccessible or insufficient. This paper extends the concept of fuzzy set to intuitionistic fuzzy set and proposes a novel approach to evaluate system failure probability using intuitionistic fuzzy fault tree analysis with qualitative failure data of system components. The qualitative failure data such as expert opinions are collected as linguistic terms. These linguistic terms are then quantified by triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers in form of membership function and non-membership function. Additionally, a method is developed for combining the different opinions of experts. To illustrate the applicability of proposed approach, a case study of the crude oil tank fire and explosion accident is performed. The obtained results are very close to the results from pre-existing approaches which confirm that the proposed approach is a more realistic alternative for the study of system reliability in intuitionistic fuzzy environment when quantitative failure data of system components are not known. To help decision makers for improving the security execution of the crude oil tank system, importance measures including Fussell-Vesely importance and cut sets importance are also executed.