校园踩踏事件事故树分析

为了掌握中小学校园踩踏事件发生的原因,预防事故发生,本文收集和整理了近10年来的中小学校园踩踏事件案例,运用事故树方法分析了校园踩踏事件的起因,同时考虑管理因素对事件发生概率的影响,计算了校园踩踏事件发生的概率,并对基本事件进行了重要度分析,以为学校安全管理提供依据。     

北京市常见落叶树种叶片滞纳空气颗粒物功能

为了探求北京市常见落叶乔木树种滞纳空气颗粒物的功能,选取了6种典型落叶乔木树种(杨树、刺槐、栾树、垂柳、元宝枫、银杏),利用空气气溶胶再发生器(QRJZFSQ-I)测定了不同树种单位面积叶片对空气总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)、粗颗粒物和细颗粒物的滞纳量.结果表明:16个树种的叶片对不同粒径空气颗粒物均能起到一定的滞纳作用,且不同树种滞纳量表现出较大差异,栾树和刺槐单位面积叶片对不同粒径颗粒物的滞纳量最高,杨树的滞纳量最小;2不同树种单位面积叶片对不同粒径颗粒物的滞纳量并不完全随着取样时间的延长而增加,在雨后8 d和雨后5 d,不同树种单位面积叶片对TSP和粗颗粒物的滞纳量差异较大,但不同树种单位面积叶片对细颗粒物的滞纳量在不同取样时间下没有明显差异.在北京以空气污染的生态治理为目标选择落叶树种时,与银杏、垂柳、元宝枫、杨树相比,应优先选择栾树,其次为刺槐.     

基于事故树分析的脚手架作业安全评价

为实现脚手架作业安全的系统性分析与评价,系统分析脚手架作业事故诱发机制,层层深入细化各影响因素,直至难以再细分的基本事件,确定相互之间的逻辑关系,建立脚手架事故树。在分析最小割集的基础上,采用专家调查法,给出各基本事件发生概率的经验估计,进而确定顶事件概率。在此基础上,通过敏感性分析,揭示基本事件对于顶事件的贡献程度。研究结果表明,脚手架作业事故发生的主要原因包括脚手架上有人、设计不合理、架设错误、材料不合格等,为保障作业安全,尤其需要加强作业人员在脚手架作业中的警惕性,注重脚手架设计理论计算,同时规范脚手架架设程序,选择合乎规格的脚手架材料。     

基于贝叶斯网络的生物质气化中毒事故分析

由于生物质气化产生的燃气中含有CO,导致生物质气化站极易发生泄漏中毒事故并造成人员伤亡,同时考虑到传统的系统安全分析方法在风险评估中存在一定局限性,引入贝叶斯网络分析模型,应用Ge NIe软件将系统故障树转成贝叶斯网络,根据贝叶斯双向推理进行故障预测和诊断,快速、准确识别系统薄弱环节。实例应用表明,所构建的贝叶斯网络分析模型对生物质气化进行风险评估是可行的,且较传统的事件树、故障树分析方法更加科学、合理。     

“三软”煤层煤与瓦斯突出事故树分析

掌握煤与瓦斯突出危险性和主要影响因素对突出防治至关重要。运用安全系统工程重要的系统分析方法——事故树分析法对"三软"煤层煤与瓦斯突出危险性进行系统分析,构建了"三软"煤层条件下煤与瓦斯突出的事故树,进行了定性分析和定量计算。结果表明,煤与瓦斯突出发生的概率为0.216 5,导致突出的可能途径有24种,预防突出的可能方案有5种,并计算出了各基本事件的结构重要度、概率重要度和临界重要度,确定了"三软"煤层中影响煤与瓦斯突出各因素的重要程度。     

基于空间故障树理论的系统可靠性评估方法研究

为了研究可靠性对工作环境变化敏感的一类系统,利用空间故障树SFT的思想和方法,并结合T-S模糊故障树和贝叶斯网络,建立了一种系统可靠性评估方法。总结了T-S模糊故障树和BN网络评价系统可靠性时存在的问题,并在所提出的方法中予以解决。方法中将事件的故障状态划分为:无故障a、轻度故障b、严重故障c、完全故障d四种状态,分别用a,b,c,d表示。故障率为[0~30%)、[30%~60%)、[60%~85%)、[85%~100%),并得到了划分的规则。研究了该系统在不同故障状态下的有效范围。得到了系统在不同状态之间过渡时的特征,并分析了过渡期间的可靠性对因素敏感度问题。     

事故树分析法研究反应堆退役中的放射性危害

反应堆退役的安全性是退役活动的关键。退役中产生的放射性危害,不仅能直接对公众造成伤害,更可能对环境造成长久危害。采用事故树分析法对反应堆退役过程中的放射性危害进行研究探讨,并结合实际退役案例,对事故与导致事故发生原因之间的逻辑关系进行分析。结果表明：引起放射性事故发生的原因较多,既有内照射危害又有外照射危害。在分析基础上,提出了预防及治理措施,从而推进反应堆退役工作的顺利进行,保障人、物及环境的安全。     

Involving local farmers in rehabilitation of degraded tropical forests: some lessons from Ghana

The role of community-based plantation development in forest rehabilitation and poverty alleviation is a pressing issue for the government of Ghana. In this paper, we present an analysis of the prospects of a community-based plantation using taungya systems and indigenous trees as means to forest rehabilitation and livelihood improvement in Ghana. The project management strategies, communication process and incentive mechanism and their impact on local participation are discussed with the aim to recommending a mechanism through which local farmers can best be involved in rehabilitation of degraded sites in the future in Ghana. Data were collected through a survey using personal interviews of 431 farming households and ten key informants from ten communities living in scattered hamlets in and around forests reserves. The results show a high rate of local participation in project tree planting activities. Four years after the project’s initiation, about 250 ha of plantations had been established using twelve priority indigenous and one exotic species and farmers had indicated improvement in their farming practices and availability of food and forest products. Restoring forest quality as a timber resource and associated values, getting money, food stuff and timber and non-timber for domestic use, and having access to fertile land for farming were the top three issues prioritised by respondents as motivational factors for engaging in the project activities. Overall, this project demonstrates that reversing tropical forest degradation is possible. For this we need local involvement in tree domestication combined with activities that addresses livelihood needs and environmental concerns. This case also demonstrates the prospects of utilising indigenous tree species, not only exotic species that dominated tree planting in the past, for plantations and landscape rehabilitation in Ghana. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Conservation of Epiphyte Diversity in an Andean Landscape Transformed by Human Land Use

Abstract: Epiphytes are diverse and important elements of tropical forests, but as canopy‐dwelling organisms, they are highly vulnerable to deforestation. To assess the effect of deforestation on epiphyte diversity and the potential for epiphyte conservation in anthropogenically transformed habitats, we surveyed the epiphytic vegetation of an Ecuadorian cloud forest reserve and its surroundings. Our study was located on the western slopes of the Andes, a global center of biodiversity. We sampled vascular epiphytes of 110 study plots in a continuous primary forest; 14 primary forest fragments; isolated remnant trees in young, middle‐aged, and old pastures; and young and old secondary forests. It is the first study to include all relevant types of habitat transformation at a single study site and to compare epiphyte diversity at different temporal stages of fragmentation. Epiphyte diversity was highest in continuous primary forest, followed by forest fragments and isolated remnant trees, and lowest in young secondary forests. Spatial parameters of habitat transformation, such as fragment area, distance to the continuous primary forest, or distance to the forest edge from inside the forest, had no significant effect on epiphyte diversity. Hence, the influence of dispersal limitations appeared to be negligible or appeared to operate only over very short distances, whereas microclimatic edge effects acted only in the case of completely isolated trees, but not in larger forest fragments. Epiphyte diversity increased considerably with age of secondary forests, but species assemblages on isolated remnant trees were impoverished distinctly with time since isolation. Thus, isolated trees may serve for recolonization of secondary forests, but only for a relatively short time. We therefore suggest that the conservation of even small patches of primary forest within agricultural landscape matrices is essential for the long‐term maintenance of the high epiphyte diversity in tropical cloud forests.