全球变暖环境下基于金属媒介的气候敏感性研究：对一种典型两栖动物的早期和潜在影响

尽管有很多复杂的模型预测了未来温度对变温动物的影响,广泛分布的亚致命性污染物对变温动物的热应激反应产生的影响却少有模型提及。由不断上升的温度所带来更高的代谢率可以让变温动物获利地加快代谢与发育,但在长期亚致命性污染物的存在下,因清除或解毒而导致的对生存资源的额外需求很可能使得生物难以跟上温度上升的步伐,即毒物诱导的气候敏感性假说。在以自然湖水为背景的室外生物鉴定中,我们调查了一种模式变温动物在6个不同浓度的镉、铜和铅混合物以及3个热动态下(环境温度,高于环境温度1.5摄氏度以及高于环境温度2.5摄氏度)的日周期性温度变化。金属浓度在大约10倍生物可利用性慢性标准单位 (BCCU,慢性标准浓度的生物可利用性比例总和)之下时,升温对于寇普氏树蛙(Hyla chrysoscelis)没有显著作用。在高于10倍BCCU以及高于环境温度1.5摄氏度的处理条件下,生长受到促进。相反地,在28倍BCCU以及升温2.5摄氏度的条件下,不仅生长情况收到抑制,变态后20 d未成年树蛙的身体状况指标相比于背景环境(环境温度下的湖水)中的未成年树蛙也要低34%。这些发现认为毒物诱导的气候敏感性是通过对青少年阶段的生物产生长期潜在的影响而实现的。在22世纪,即使在最保守的全球变暖预测模型下,亚致命性污染物依然会加剧变温动物所遭受的来自升温的影响。
精选自Tyler A. Hallman, Marjorie L. Brooks. Metals-mediated climate susceptibility in a warming world: larval and latent effects on a model amphibian. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 7, pages 1872–1882, July 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3337
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3337/full
     

铜、锌对3种常见乔木抗氧化指标的复合影响

为了解不同浓度铜（Cu）、锌（Zn）重金属污染土壤对乔木抗氧化指标的影响以及为植物修复蠡河重金属污染岸带提供理论依据,选取广玉兰（Magnoliagrandiflora）、香樟（Cinnamomumcamphora）、榉树（Zelkovaschneideriana）幼苗,采用土培法浇灌重金属溶液模拟土壤污染环境,研究不同浓度重金属Cu／Zn对乔木脯氨酸含量、过氧化物酶活性、过氧化氢酶活性及丙二醛含量的单一及复合影响。实验表明,单一Cu胁迫对广玉兰、香樟和榉树的毒害作用较单一,Zn胁迫严重;Cu／Zn复合作用下,3种乔木抗氧化指标均在Cu15和Zn110时达到最大值,表现出较强的抗性,而后随着复合作用强度增加,重金属对其毒害作用增大;75μg／gCu和210μg／gZn单一及复合胁迫时,广玉兰丙二醛含量相对香樟和榉树较接近对照值,过氧化物酶和过氧化氢酶活性较大,脯氨酸含量差别不大。综合分析,不同乔木在不同浓度重金属胁迫下抗氧化指标作出不同响应,广玉兰对高浓度Cu／Zn胁迫不敏感,承受能力和抗性较强,适合于修复Cu／Zn污染较严重土壤。     

Dynamic accident modeling for high-sulfur natural gas gathering station

Dynamic accident modeling for a gas gathering station is implemented to prevent high-sulfur natural gas leakage and develop equipment inspection strategy. The progress of abnormal event occurring in the gas gathering station is modeled by the combination of fault tree and event sequence diagram, based on accident causal chain theory, i.e. the progress is depicted as sequential failure of safety barriers, then, the occurrence probability of the consequence of abnormal event is predicted. Consequences of abnormal events are divided into accidents and accident precursors which include incidents, near misses and so on. The Bayesian theory updates failure probability of safety barrier when a new observation (i.e. accident precursors or accidents data) arrives. Bayesian network then correspondingly updates failure probabilities of basic events of the safety barriers with the ability of abductive reasoning. Consequence occurrence probability is also updated. The results show that occurrence probability trend of different consequences and failure probability trend of safety barriers and basic events of the safety barriers can be obtained using this method. In addition, the critical basic events which play an important role in accidents occurrence are also identified. All of these provide useful information for the maintenance and inspection of the gas gathering station.     

基于事故树分析的钻井井漏事故危险评价研究

基于事故致因理论建立井漏事故模型,将井漏事故危险源分为地质条件不佳、井底压力过大、井漏诱因和应急失效4类,提出基于事故树方法的钻井井漏危险性专项评价方法。以东安1井为例,对东安1井井漏事故的风险源进行分析,找出导致井漏的主要原因,通过对最小割集和最小径集的分析可知对井漏事故影响最大的是地质情况因素。对井漏事故的预防提出建议:井眼轨迹设计时应重点考虑地层的地质条件;施工过程中严格按规章操作,并建立良好的应急救援机制。     

工程项目施工安全保证的投入效率分析

利用ALARP原则构建工程项目施工风险可容忍区域,对处于不可容忍区域的安全事故,采取安全投入措施使之进入可容忍区域;对处于可容忍区域的安全事故,进行安全投入效益分析,以确定最佳安全投入额。采用事故树分析法探究事故与事故发生原因之间的内在逻辑关系,并探讨安全投入与事故发生概率的函数关系。在此基础上,构建安全投入优化分配模型,结合历史统计数据,利用Lingo软件对模型进行计算求解。     

New methodologies for security risk assessment of oil and gas industry

The oil and gas industry forms a vital and large part of the economy of any country. It provides crucial support to transport, manufacturing and energy sectors, produces valuable exports and provides huge employment. This industry along with fertilizer plants, petrochemical plants, etc., which handle hazardous chemicals, are potential targets for deliberate actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. The process industries face different levels of threats. It is imperative to analyze the entire threat scenario before taking steps to counter it, otherwise each and every threat will have to be treated as most severe, thus resulting in a huge and wasteful expenditure.The Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT) and a Stepped Matrix Procedure (SMP) have been developed to assess the security risk of oil and gas industry as well as the other chemical process industries. While the SRFT deals with the effects of individual threats, the SMP deals with the cascading/domino effects which a lone, low probability event can cause. A case study of a refinery has been performed to show the application of the ideas presented.     

矿山环境重金属污染的事故树分析

有色金属矿产资源的开采与利用过程不可避免地伴随着矿物化学组成和物理状态变化、重金属污染向生态环境释放和迁移的过程。笔者从采矿过程的分析入手,应用事故树分析方法研究了矿山环境重金属污染物来源,结果表明矿山环境重金属污染物的主要来源是尾矿库,因此矿山环境重金属释放迁移规律和重金属的污染治理与控制研究重点应针对尾矿库。     

起重作业挤压事故的分析与预防

分析了起重作业挤压事故的成因,并利用事故树分析方法分析了可能造成起重作业挤压事故的具体因素,对导致起重作业挤压事故重要度进行了排序分析.最后根据挤压事故原因提出了起重作业挤压事故的预防措施,主要包括起重机管理,人员的管理和培训,环境的管理,规章制度的建立.     

Sensitivity of the Structural Characteristics of Tree Rings to Climatic Changes in Different Climatypes of Scotch Pine

Radial increment and tree-ring structure were studied in the progenies of 16 climatypes growing in the southern taiga subzone. The coefficients of correlation between tree-ring parameters of the local and other climatypes were as high as 0.7–0.9, and the synchronism coefficients were higher than 0.7. Climatypes of northern origin were an exception. The sensitivity of the parameters of the tree-ring late wood decreased with an increase in the latitude at which the seeds for establishing the cultures were collected. Estimation of Euclidean distances in the space of tree-ring parameters showed that the northern climatypes differed from the southern taiga types by no more than 15%. The climatypes from the middle taiga and the forest–steppe exhibited smaller differences (10–11%).     

计算机辅助事故树分析研究

计算机辅助事故树分析中,求最小割集和绘制事故树是非常重要的。实用中,由于事故树往往规模庞大且最小割集的数目难以预知,这就使传统的用不能动态扩充的数组实现的计算机算法在应用时受到很大限制。本应用VC＋＋（MFC）中可动态扩充的数组类数据结构,实现求最小割集的Fussell算法,并提出和实现“堆砖法”计算机辅助事故树绘图。