环氧乙烷生产装置的安全分析与评价

综合运用道化学公司火灾、爆炸危险指数评价法,事故树分析以及事件树分析对环氧乙烷生产装置进行安全评价,定量地得出装置的危险程度,定性地分析了各危险因素的大小以及系统中各元件的故障率对事故发生概率的影响程度,并提出了改进措施.结果表明,该装置的危险程度很大,必须加强安全生产管理,采取有效措施控制氧气的浓度,从而降低危险性等级,保证生产安全.     

湘南地区杂柑天草高接换冠关键技术

天草杂柑的高接换冠的关键技术主要是：注意选择母树并适当修剪；合理采穗和保湿；科学嫁接；嫁接后精心管理．     

Floristics, performance and prognosis of historical trees in the urban forest of Guangzhou City (China)

Outstanding historical trees embedded in cities constitute pertinent environmental assets, yet they are widely threatened in third-world cities. Inadequate understanding of this valuable natural-cum-cultural heritage hinders proper conservation. A case study of Guangzhou in south China evaluated floristic composition, age profile and biomass structure of historical trees, assessed their performance in major habitats (institutional, park and roadside), and established a prognosis for future growth and management. The 348 historical trees examined belonged to only 25 species, vis-à -vis 254 trees in the entire urban forest, dominated by five species and native members. Roadside had more trees, followed by institutional and park, with merely the most common four species shared by all habitats. The limited commonality reflected tree-performance differentiation by habitats exerting selection pressure on species. The institutional growth-regime was more conducive to nurturing high-caliber specimens, whereas park is less capable. Individual species achievement by habitats, derived from tree-count ranking and relative-abundance indices, could inform species choice and tree conservation. Few trees exceeded 300 years of age in the millennium-old city, echoing a history of intense tree—city conflicts. Potential life-span, trunk and crown diameters indicated ample opportunities for further expansion of biomass and landscape impacts, which would be straitjacketed by the tightening urban fabric.     

Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries1

Gray, Stephen T., Jeffrey J. Lukas, and Connie A. Woodhouse, 2011. Millennial‐Length Records of Streamflow From Three Major Upper Colorado River Tributaries. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(4):702‐712. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00535.x Abstract: Drought, climate change, and shifting consumptive use are prompting a widespread reassessment of water availability in the Upper Colorado River basin. Here, we present millennial‐length records of water year (October‐September) streamflow for key Upper Colorado tributaries: the White, Yampa, and Little Snake Rivers. Based on tree rings, these records represent the first paleohydrological reconstructions from these subbasins to overlap with a series of Medieval droughts (∼ad 800 to 1300). The reconstructions show marked interannual variability imbedded in nonstationary behavior over decadal to multidecadal time scales. These reconstructions suggest that, even in a millennial context, gaged flows from a handful of years (e.g., 1977 and 2002) were extremely dry. However, droughts of much greater duration and magnitude than any in the instrumental record were regular features prior to 1900. Likewise these reconstructions point to the unusual wetness of the gage period, and the potential for recent observations to paint an overly optimistic picture of regional water supplies. The future of the Upper Colorado River will be determined by a combination of inherent hydroclimatic variability and a broad range of human‐induced changes. It is then essential that regional water managers, water users, and policy makers alike consider a broader range of hydroclimatic scenarios than is offered by the gage record alone.     

An analysis of assessment outcomes from eight years' operation of the Australian border weed risk assessment system

The majority of Australian weeds are exotic plant species that were intentionally introduced for a variety of horticultural and agricultural purposes. A border weed risk assessment system (WRA) was implemented in 1997 in order to reduce the high economic costs and massive environmental damage associated with introducing serious weeds. We review the behaviour of this system with regard to eight years of data collected from the assessment of species proposed for importation or held within genetic resource centres in Australia. From a taxonomic perspective, species from the Chenopodiaceae and Poaceae were most likely to be rejected and those from the Arecaceae and Flacourtiaceae were most likely to be accepted. Dendrogram analysis and classification and regression tree (TREE) models were also used to analyse the data. The latter revealed that a small subset of the 35 variables assessed was highly associated with the outcome of the original assessment. The TREE model examining all of the data contained just five variables: unintentional human dispersal, congeneric weed, weed elsewhere, tolerates or benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire, and reproduction by vegetative propagation. It gave the same outcome as the full WRA model for 71% of species. Weed elsewhere was not the first splitting variable in this model, indicating that the WRA has a capacity for capturing species that have no history of weediness. A reduced TREE model (in which human-mediated variables had been removed) contained four variables: broad climate suitability, reproduction in less or than equal to 1year, self-fertilisation, and tolerates and benefits from mutilation, cultivation or fire. It yielded the same outcome as the full WRA model for 65% of species. Data inconsistencies and the relative importance of questions are discussed, with some recommendations made for improving the use of the system.     

20世纪初以来沂蒙山区森林植被动态及其对气候变化的响应——基于遥感和树轮的研究

遥感能够直接反映植被生长信息,但目前观测时间较短;树轮资料可以弥补遥感手段的不足,但往往缺乏与植被生长状况（如植被生产力）的直接关联。已有研究往往计算不同植被指数指标和树轮指数的相关性,并基于此来重建长时间尺度的植被动态信息。但基于相关性所选取的指标在不同地区存在较大差异,不利于空间对比研究。以沂蒙山区为研究区,选取能够有效表征植被年初级生产力的生长季NDVI累积值指标,利用Bootstrap法建立了其与树轮宽度的关系,重建了20世纪初期以来植被动态时间序列,并分析了变化特征及其与气候变化的关系。结果表明：沂山地区生长季NDVI累积值的多年平均值为7.36,低于蒙山和塔山地区;蒙山地区植被状况呈现好转趋势,特别是20世纪90年代之后植被好转趋势更加明显,而塔山和沂山地区植被无显著变化。小波分析结果表明研究区植被动态存在较显著的2 a、4 a或8 a尺度的周期变化,与生长季帕尔默干旱指数及平均温度的周期变化相一致,但干旱指数与植被动态具有更高的相关性。本研究综合运用树轮与遥感技术发展了长时间尺度植被动态时间序列重建方法,有助于更好地理解植被动态及其对气候变化的响应。     

基于灰色模糊集理论的船舶搁浅概率分析

为深入分析船舶搁浅概率,在随机性和模糊性的基础上,考虑了系统的灰色性,建立灰色模糊集,模部为正态模糊数,灰部以系统的灰度熵来表示。建立了船舶航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅的事件树,构造了船舶搁浅概率的灰色模糊隶属度函数,根据各基本事件的失效概率来分析因航行计划失效造成船舶搁浅事故的灰色模糊概率分布情况。结果表明,与经典概率论和模糊概率相比,采用灰色模糊概率更能全面地反映船舶搁浅概率的可能性与不确定性。并采用RRW法和RAW法对基本事件的重要度进行了分析,找出了事故主要诱因及对降低事故风险价值最大的基本事件。     

用事故树分析法进行炼厂油罐爆炸事故的环境风险评价

论述了风险、风险评价、环境风险评价的概念及其主要内容，说明利用事故树分析法进行工程环境风险评价的程序和方法。并运用这种方法对某炼厂油罐爆炸事故进行了大气环境风险评价。     

FTA在城市控制爆破工程事故中的运用

城市控制爆破工程采用电雷管网路起爆,极易发生爆破事故.运用FTA方法,编制了爆破事故树,并进行了定性分析.结合工程实际,提出了爆破事故的具体预防措施,更依法采取了爆破安全管理措施.     

Sparse regression for analyzing the development of foliar nutrient concentrations in coniferous trees

Analyzing and predicting the development of foliar nutrient concentrations are important and challenging tasks in environmental monitoring. This article presents how linear sparse regression models can be used to represent the relations between different foliar nutrient concentration measurements of coniferous trees in consecutive years. In the experiments the models proved to be capable of providing relatively good and reliable predictions of the development of foliage with a considerably small number of regressors. Two methods for estimating sparse models were compared to more conventional linear regression models. Differences in the prediction accuracies between the sparse and full models were minor, but the sparse models were found to highlight important dependencies between the nutrient measurements better than the other regression models. The use of sparse models is, therefore, advantageous in the analysis and interpretation of the development of foliar nutrient concentrations.