Pre-instrumental perspectives on Arkansas River cross-watershed flow variability

We present four reconstruction estimates of Arkansas River baseflow and streamflow using a total of 78 tree-ring chronologies for three streamflow gages, geographically spanning the headwaters in Colorado to near the confluence of the Arkansas-Mississippi rivers. The estimates represent different seasonal windows, which are dictated by the shared limiting forcing of precipitation on seasonal tree growth and soil moisture—and subsequently on the variability of Arkansas River discharge. Flow extremes that were higher and lower than what has been observed in the instrumental era are recorded in each of the four reconstructions. Years of concurrent, cross-basin (all sites) low flow appear more frequently during the 20th and 21st Centuries compared to any period since 1600 A.D., however, no significant trend in cross-basin low flow is observed. As the most downstream major tributary of the Mississippi River, the Arkansas River directly influences flood risk in the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Estimates of extreme high flow in downstream reconstructions coincide with specific years of historic flooding documented in New Orleans, Louisiana, just upstream of the Mississippi River Delta. By deduction, Mississippi River flooding in years of low Arkansas River flow imply exceptional flooding contributions from the Upper Mississippi River catchments.     

基于故障树理论的舰船海水管系腐蚀失效原因分析及应用

针对某型船板式冷却器B10海水管路频繁穿孔漏水问题,本文基于故障树分析理论,以故障海水管路的腐蚀环境、腐蚀形貌和腐蚀机理为层次,将可能导致海水管路穿孔漏水的各种因素作为底事件列出,通过逻辑联系形成上述问题管路的故障树模型。在逐一分析故障树各项底事件的发生原因和典型表现后,将故障原因定位为B10管路与冷却器钛合金板片之间发生异种金属电偶腐蚀,并进行了原理复现,以验证分析的正确性,最终提出包括增加电绝缘组件在内的一系列治理措施,在船上实施后,取得了较好的治理效果。该分析方法可为各类舰船海水管路腐蚀问题的分析定位和治理防护提供借鉴。     

8种乡土树种在铁矿废弃地的定植与生长

应用生态系统演替原理,选取青冈(Cyclobalanopsis glauca)、苦槠(Castanopsis sclerophylla)、白栎(Quercus fabri)、麻栎(Quercus acutissima)、小叶栎(Quercus chenii)、榔榆(Ulmus parvifolia)、紫楠(Phoebe sheareri)和薄叶润楠(Machilus leptophylla)8种乡土树种在安徽省马鞍山市南山铁矿排土场进行定植试验.定植后3 a小叶栎高度达(194.89±2.71) cm(平均值±标准误,下同),比移栽时增加119.89 cm,平均年增高39.96 cm,高度最小的紫楠也达(72.67±2.91) cm,比移栽时增加了62.67 cm,平均年增高20.89 cm;地径最大的榔榆已达(3.87±0.11) cm,最小的紫楠也达(1.27±0.15) cm,说明在人工管理条件下,这些植物生长良好.观测结果表明,落叶阔叶树种比常绿阔叶树种定植成活率高,株高和地径增长速度也较快,是该地自然群落恢复的重要候选树种.     

亚热带6种针叶和阔叶树种凋落叶分解比较

针叶和阔叶树种分别代表了不同的生活型,其凋落叶片具有不同的分解速率.应用分解网袋法,在中国亚热带地区,选取了具有代表性的3种针叶树种(马尾松Pinus massoniana、水杉Metasequoia glyptostroboides和杉木Cunninghamia lanceolata)和3种阔叶树种(木荷Schima superb、乐昌含笑Michelis chapensis和青冈Cyclobalanopsisgtauca)的凋落叶,放置于样地杭州千岛湖的林地中,经过1 a的分解实验,分析不同类型树种凋落叶的分解特征.6种树种凋落叶质量损失过程基本符合Olson指数模型,其中,3种针叶树种(马尾松、水杉和杉木)凋落叶的分解系数k值(分别为0.51、0.30和0.44),明显小于3种阔叶树种(木荷、乐昌含笑和青冈)凋落叶的分解系数k值(分别为0.55、1.12和0.66);同时,针叶树种(马尾松、水杉和杉木)凋落叶分解50%和95%所需时间(分别为1.36、2.31、1.78 a和5.87、9.99、7.68 a),大于阔叶树种(木荷、乐昌含笑和青冈)凋落叶的分解时间(分别为1.26、0.62、1.05 a和5.45、2.68、4.54a).多元回归分析表明,凋落物分解系数与初始钾元素含量显著相关(P<0.05).一元线性回归分析表明,凋落物的分解系数与初始钾元素和初始木质素含量均具有显著性差异(P<0.05).亚热带地区针、阔叶树种凋落叶分解的差异与自身质量密切相关,其中初始木质素与钾元素含量是控制凋落物分解的主要因素.图2表2参23     

学生宿舍火灾事故树分析

运用事故树分析了学生宿舍火灾的起因,同时考虑管理因素对事故发生概率的影响,得出火灾事故的发生概率,并对基本事件进行了重要度分析,为学校宿舍管理部门提供了科学依据.     

我国苏南地区香樟树皮赋存的二英类污染特征及来源

为分析长江下游经济高速发展区的POPs污染特征,于2012年8月在苏南地区典型城市10个采样点采集香樟树皮,应用高分辨气相色谱-高分辨质谱(HRGC-HRMS)联用技术对二英(PCDD/Fs)浓度水平进行监测,同时采用主成分分析(PCA)法探讨其可能来源. 结果表明:苏南地区香樟树皮中二英的毒性当量(I-TEQ)浓度(以干质量计,下同)为5.6～12.2 pg/g,平均值为7.2 pg/g;4～8氯代二英同族体质量分数(以干质量计)范围为418～938 pg/g,平均值为635 pg/g. 由于二英在大气中的长距离迁移潜力较强,在研究的苏南地区区域尺度上,其含量在城市中心区和对照区之间的差异性并不明显;苏南地区香樟树皮二英质量分数及毒性当量浓度均高于国外报道的背景区及典型城市中树皮的水平. 对比典型二英排放源及树皮中二英特征谱图,可推断苏南地区香樟树皮中二英可能主要来源于危险(医疗)废物焚烧、机动车尾气排放和工业燃烧源.      

基于多故障冲击模型和故障树的PFDavg计算方法研究*

为提高安全仪表功能（SIF）要求时危险失效平均概率（PFDavg）计算结果的精确度,提出1种能准确计算SIF在多重共因失效影响下的PFDavg的数学模型。建立包含多重共因失效的系统失效故障树,然后利用多故障冲击模型区分普通失效率和多重共因失效率,根据瞬时不可用率的定义和故障树的逻辑关系计算出SIF的瞬时不可用率;基于PFDavg的定义,计算出SIF的PFDavg,以某化工企业SIF为例进行验证。结果表明:方法有效考虑了多重共因失效对SIF的影响,通过模型计算出SIF的PFDavg大于基于马尔可夫（Markov）方法的软件计算结果,但二者处于相同的数量级。模型在评估SIF的PFDavg时比传统方法偏保守,能提高安全仪表功能的安全性。     

CAST污水处理工艺故障诊断方法的研究与应用

本文分析了CAST污水处理工艺故障诊断的特点和需求。在此基础上,提出了建立CAST工艺故障诊断系统的思路和方法,利用自动化监控系统实现在线故障监测和报警,利用故障树分析法构建故障诊断模型,结合运行参数趋势图,实现故障快速诊断。文章通过实例分析,介绍了该方法在污水处理厂的实际应用。     

基于事故树分析的脚手架作业安全评价

为实现脚手架作业安全的系统性分析与评价,系统分析脚手架作业事故诱发机制,层层深入细化各影响因素,直至难以再细分的基本事件,确定相互之间的逻辑关系,建立脚手架事故树。在分析最小割集的基础上,采用专家调查法,给出各基本事件发生概率的经验估计,进而确定顶事件概率。在此基础上,通过敏感性分析,揭示基本事件对于顶事件的贡献程度。研究结果表明,脚手架作业事故发生的主要原因包括脚手架上有人、设计不合理、架设错误、材料不合格等,为保障作业安全,尤其需要加强作业人员在脚手架作业中的警惕性,注重脚手架设计理论计算,同时规范脚手架架设程序,选择合乎规格的脚手架材料。     

Relationships between simulated water stress and mortality and growth rates in underplanted Toona ciliata Roem. in subtropical Argentinean plantations

Toona ciliata Roem. (Australian red cedar) requires a nurse-tree overstory to prevent damage from drought and irradiation in some regions of north-eastern Argentina. T. ciliata was planted in the understory of Pinus taeda L. (625 stems/ha), Pinus elliottii Engelm. × Pinus caribaea Morelet (625 stems/ha), and Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. (833 stems/ha) nurse trees, which were thinned to 0, 25, 50, 75 and 100% of the initial densities. We measured initial T. ciliata mortality and growth as well as Leaf Area Index (LAI) based on light transmission. T. ciliata soil water availability and its effect on early growth and mortality were examined by modelling drought stress using the two-dimensional forest hydrology model ForWaDy. Simulated patterns in T. ciliata water stress for the different overstory treatments were consistent with observed patterns of mortality. Early mortality was lowest with a G. robusta overstory, with corresponding lowest drought stress values and high modelled soil water contents in the top soil layer in intermediate and high overstory densities. Mortality was highest with a P. elliottii × P. caribaea overstory in treatments with the highest modelled drought stress values in the most open treatments. The model supported our field observations by indicating that water stress was an important limitation to T. ciliata survival and growth on our study sites. The linkage between T. ciliata establishment success, early growth and soil water availability as indicated by ForWaDy, leads us to conclude that the model is a suitable stand management tool for guiding establishment of T. ciliata plantations.