人员密集场所拥挤踩踏事故风险分级模型及预防对策

为研究人员密集场所拥挤踩踏事故的影响因素及拥挤踩踏事故风险级别与管控措施,通过统计分析2002-2018年间国内不同场所发生的拥挤踩踏事故原因,构建事故树模型,从人的因素、道路因素、环境因素、管理因素4个方面提出人员密集场所拥挤踩踏事故的20个评价指标,建立踩踏事故风险评价指标体系,基于层次分析法对评价指标赋予权重,进而构建RCM-CS模型,并依据模型对事故风险进行分级评估。通过RCM-CS模型对已发生的踩踏事故风险等级评估发现,该模型可以很好的区分不同场所的拥挤踩踏风险等级,对于预测人员密集场所风险级别及预防拥挤踩踏事故的发生具有重要作用。     

故障树在油库火灾爆炸事故风险评价中的应用

将故障树分析法应用于南京摄山油库火灾爆炸事故的环境风险评价,构建了油库火灾爆炸故障树,确定最小割集,进行结构重要度分析,计算汽油罐发生火灾爆炸的概率,并对各基本事件的概率重要度进行了分析。依据故障树分析的结论提出了降低顶事件概率的防范措施,为油库的风险管理提供科学依据,并可为其它油库项目的火灾爆炸事故分析提供参考。     

可靠性理论在建筑施工安全领域的应用研究

针对建筑施工安全管理体系,从系统可靠性的视角,综合运用可靠性方面的知识,构建了建筑施工安全管理系统混联模型。在此基础上,将可靠性分配理论与故障树分析方法相结合,根据系统安全目标的要求,确定混联系统的第一层次各单元事件的可靠性目标值,对构成各单元的各个下属单元采取最小工作量可靠度分配方法,以此类推,从而建立系统中各单元可靠度再分配量化模型。为便于应用,通过建筑施工过程中常见的脚手架坠落实例,详述系统各单元可靠性分配的计算过程。研究表明,可靠性理论可以成功地应用到建筑施工安全领域;使系统在给定的目标值条件下达到系统的安全性优化,从而实现建筑施工安全保障效能,减小事故损失。     

Tibouchina pulchra (Cham.) Cogn., a native Atlantic Forest species, as a bio-indicator of ozone: visible injury

Tibouchina pulchra saplings were exposed to carbon filtered air (CF), ambient non-filtered air (NF) and ambient non-filtered air+40 ppb ozone (NF+O3) 8 h per day during two months. The AOT40 values at the end of the experiment were 48, 910 and 12,895 ppb h(-1), respectively, for the three treatments. After 25 days of exposure (AOT40=3871 ppb h(-1)), interveinal red stippling appeared in plants in the NF+O3 chamber. In the NF chamber, symptoms were observed only after 60 days of exposure (AOT40=910 ppb h(-1)). After 60 days, injured leaves per plant corresponded to 19% in NF+O3 and 1% in the NF treatment; and the average leaf area injured was 7% within the NF+O3 and 0.2% within the NF treatment. The extent of leaf area injured (leaf injury index) was mostly explained by the accumulated exposure of ozone (r2=0.89; p<0.05).     

树皮在大气有机氯农药监测中应用的研究进展

有机氯农药(Organochlorine pesticides,OCPs)曾在全世界被大量使用,即使禁用多年,仍能在各种环境介质中被广泛检出,对生态环境和人体健康存在着潜在的威胁。因此OCPs的环境迁移和归趋一直是该领域的研究热点。树皮是一种天然的被动采样器,能够很好的反映出大气有机物长期的污染程度。本文简要论述了树皮作为被动采样器在大气污染物监测研究中应用的优势,并对OCPs在树皮中的残留浓度、特征及影响其富集的因素进行了探讨,最后特别针对具有手性的OCPs在树皮中的对映体选择性特征进行了评述。     

基于C5.0决策树和时序HJ-1A/B CCD数据的神农架林区植被分类

我国神农架林区海拔高、气候复杂,森林类型多样,结构破碎,森林遥感分类难度较大。将2013年时间序列HJ-1A/B CCD遥感影像作为数据源,计算出植被指数(NDVI、DVI、RVI)和主成分第一分量(PC1),使用DEM数据生成地形因子(高程、坡度、坡向),构建植被分类时序因子集。运用C5.0决策树分类法将神农架林区植被细分为七类:针叶林;针阔混交林;落叶阔叶林;常绿和落叶阔叶混交林;常绿阔叶林;灌丛和草甸。结果表明:该方法的总体精度为72.7%,Kappa系数为0.67;在6~8月,针叶林、草甸和灌丛的植被指数明显低于常绿阔叶林、常绿和落叶阔叶混交林、落叶阔叶林和针阔混交林,对分类的贡献较大,称为植被分类的"窗口期"。PC1、NDVI和高程因子对神农架林地的区分度较高,而坡度、坡向和RVI因子对分类帮助不大。作为一种智能分类方法,C5.0决策树分类方法应用于30m分辨率的时间序列HJ-1A/B CCD数据,能够将地貌复杂的神农架林区植被分为七类,提高了类别精度,具有更高的应用价值。     

Phytoremediation of Atrazine by Poplar Trees: Toxicity,Uptake, and Transformation

Toxicity, uptake, and transformation of atrazine [2-chloro-4-(ethylamino)-6-(isopropylamino)-s-triazine] by three species of poplar tree were assessed. Poplar cuttings were grown in sealed flasks with hydrophonic solutions and exposed to various concentrations of atrazine for a period of two weeks. Toxicity effects were evaluated by monitoring transpiration and measuring poplar cutting mass. Exposure to higher atrazine concentrations resulted in decrease of biomass and transpiration accompanied by leaf chlorosis and abscission. However, poplar cuttings exposed to lower concentrations of atrazine grew well and transpired at a constant rate during experiment periods. Poplar cuttings could take up, hydrolyze, and dealkylate atrazine to less toxic metabolites. Metabolism of atrazine occurred in roots, stems, and leaves and became more complete with increased residence time in tissue. These results suggest that phytoremediation is a viable approach to removing atrazine from contaminated water and should be considered for other contaminants.     

事故树分析法在油气井生产事件调查中的应用

针对油气井异常关井事故、事件及其防控措施效果不理想的现状,应用事故树分析方法,在演绎异常关井诱因与防控措施逻辑关系的基础上,建立了油气井异常关井事故树模型。以牙哈某油气井回压开关高报警关井为例,运用最小割集分析了油气井异常关井的路径和最优防控途径。牙哈某油气井回压开关高报警关井事故树最小割集计算结果表明,该事故树共有11个最小割集,反映了影响回压开关高报警关井事故的原因相对比较复杂。为制定相应的防控对策提供了理论依据,增强了防控措施的针对性和实用性。     

杨树产业对宿迁市生态环境的影响及反思

杨树产业所导致的生态环境的破坏是当前宿迁市环境保护工作中出现的新问题。在对宿迁杨树产业的由来、发展现状进行简要介绍后,着重分析了杨树产业对宿迁生态环境的影响,并对如何使宿迁的杨树产业走可持续发展的道路提出了自己的意见,最后还对如何避免此类问题的出现进行了思考。     

Predicting how defaunation-induced changes in seed predation and dispersal will affect tropical tree populations

The loss of large animals due to overhunting and habitat loss potentially affects tropical tree populations and carbon cycling. Trees reliant on large-bodied seed dispersers are thought to be particularly negatively affected by defaunation. But besides seed dispersal, defaunation can also increase or decrease seed predation. It remains unclear how these different defaunation effects on early life stages ultimately affect tree population dynamics. We reviewed the literature on how tropical animal loss affects different plant life stages, and we conducted a meta-analysis of how defaunation affects seed predation. We used this information to parameterize models that altered matrix projection models from a suite of tree species to simulate defaunation-caused changes in seed dispersal and predation. We assessed how applying these defaunation effects affected population growth rates. On average, population-level effects of defaunation were negligible, suggesting that defaunation may not cause the massive reductions in forest carbon storage that have been predicted. In contrast to previous hypotheses, we did not detect an effect of seed size on changes in seed predation rates. The change in seed predation did not differ significantly between exclosure experiments and observational studies, although the results of observational studies were far more variable. Although defaunation surely affects certain tree taxa, species that benefit or are harmed by it and net changes in forest carbon storage cannot currently be predicted based on available data. Further research on how factors such as seed predation vary across tree species and defaunation scenarios is necessary for understanding cascading changes in species composition and diversity.