洪灾风险评估在规划环评中的应用

在规划环评中开展洪灾风险评价,应统筹考虑社会、经济的综合影响。就经济损失方面,需要根据洪灾风险评价的基本理论,结合规划区的实际情况,并基于AcView和MapInfo地理信息系统,合理确定洪水风险区、洪水淹没范围、损失率,进行风险损失和风险值计算,选择洪灾风险值较小的防洪规划方案。案例研究结果表明,博鳌规划区50 a一遇的防洪规划方案比20 a一遇的防洪规划方案的风险值要小近50%。因此,在博鳌规划区洪水设防上应按50 a一遇的标准设防为宜。     

桂中典型碳酸盐岩区水稻及根系土硒含量特征

硒对人体的健康具有重要意义。水稻作为中国南方的主要粮食作物,研究水稻籽实与根系土硒含量特征及其影响因素,可为富硒水稻种植、富硒产业开发、提升土地利用价值提供科学依据。本文以桂中典型碳酸盐岩地区为研究区,通过采集、测试400套水稻籽实及对应的根系土样品,研究讨论其含硒水平及影响因素。结果表明:(1)水稻根系土硒含量为0.11～3.82 mg/kg,平均值为0.61 mg/kg,明显高于全国其他省份表层土壤硒含量值。(2)根系土中Cd、Cr、Hg、S元素含量高于全国土壤背景值,Cd、Cr、Hg富集现象显示了广西典型碳酸盐岩区土壤重金属高背景属性,碳酸盐岩区Se与Cd等重金属元素次生富集特征近似。(3)根系土中硒含量主要受成土母质岩系控制,土壤中Se高含量主要与石炭系、泥盆系、二叠系、三叠系地层碳酸盐岩、硅质岩的分布密切相关。此外,与土壤有机质呈明显正相关,土壤中的有机质能对硒起吸附固定作用,使得硒在土壤表层富集。(4)研究区水稻籽实硒最小值为0.015 mg/kg,最大值为0.532 mg/kg,平均值为0.08 mg/kg,富硒率高达81.5%。水稻籽实硒含量除了与根系土硒含量有关外,还与土壤中的有机质、S、pH呈显著负相关性。     

An overview of emissions of SO2 and NOx and the long-range transport of oxidized sulfur and nitrogen pollutants in East Asia

The long-range transport of oxidized sulfur(sulfur dioxide(SO_2) and sulfate) and oxidized nitrogen(nitrogen oxides(NO_x ) and nitrate) in East Asia is an area of increasing scientific interest and political concern. This paper reviews various published papers, including ground- and satellite-based observations and numerical simulations. The aim is to assess the status of the anthropogenic emissions of SO_2 and NO_x and the long-range transport of oxidized S and N pollutants over source and downwind region. China has dominated the emissions of SO_2 and NO_x in East Asia and urgently needs to strengthen the control of their emissions, especially NO_x emissions. Oxidized S and N pollutants emitted from China are transported to Korea and Japan, due to persistent westerly winds, in winter and spring.However, the total contributions of China to S and N pollutants across Korea and Japan were not found to be dominant over longer time scales(e.g., a year). The source–receptor relationships for oxidized S and N pollutants in East Asia varied widely among the different studies. This is because:(1) the nonlinear effects of atmospheric chemistry and deposition processes were not well considered, when calculating the source–receptor relationships;(2) different meteorological and emission data inputs and solution schemes for key physical and chemical processes were used; and(3) different temporal and spatial scales were employed. Therefore, simulations using the same input fields and similar model configurations would be of benefit, to further evaluate the source–receptor relationships of the oxidized S and N pollutants.     

13.5~2.5 Ma索尔库里盆地沉积物碳氧同位素对古气候演化的记录

索尔库里盆地位于青藏高原东北缘,柴达木盆地的北部,气候恶劣、交通不便,研究资料匮乏。通过对索尔库里北盆地彩虹沟剖面新近纪中后期沉积物的古地磁测年和碳酸盐碳氧同位素质谱分析,揭示了索尔库里盆地13.5~2.5 Ma长序列气候演变过程。13.5~9.2 Ma时期相对冷干,9.2~5.3 Ma时期相对温湿,5.3~3.9 Ma时期相对暖湿,3.9~2.5 Ma时期再次转为冷干。11 Ma左右,青藏高原东北缘隆升到阻止印度洋暖湿气流向北方运输的高度,地处走滑盆地的索尔库里地区逐渐变得极其干旱,标志着亚洲内陆干旱化在此背景下开始。红粘土磁化率和碳氧同位素变化等证据显示,西风在本区贯穿始终,而季风的出现加剧了亚洲内陆古气候的干湿更迭,对区域及全球古气候重建具有重要意义。     

基于神经网络综合建模的区域城市群发展脆弱性评价——以滇中城市群为例

城市脆弱性是评价城市发展韧性状况的有效测度。目前我国对于城市脆弱性的研究以运用统计学方法评价特殊城市为主,尚未形成对区域城市群具有普遍适用性的科学客观评价方法。以滇中城市群为例,从环境系统、经济系统、社会系统三个方面综合构建城市脆弱性评价体系,采用熵值法和BP神经网络综合建模方法,对2007—2016年10年间滇中城市群的城市脆弱性进行评价。结果表明:滇中城市群的城市脆弱性总体呈现下降趋势,但城市组团之间差异较大,呈现出发展中的不均衡性。评价结果对滇中城市群韧性发展规划具有重要指导意义,为区域城市群发展脆弱性研究提供一种科学评价方法。