后德班时代环境保护部门开展应对气候变化工作的几点思考

2011年11月28日至12月11日,《联合国气候变化框架公约》第17次缔约方大会暨《京都议定书》第7次缔约方会议在南非德班召开。在平衡与妥协的激烈博弈q-,最终达成了一个各方均不满意,但都能接受的《德班协议》。全球减排合作进程进一步加快加严,我国在后德班时代面临的国际谈判与国内应对压力将更加严峻,环保部门在温室气体监测统计、污染物与温室气体协同控制、生态保护与适应气候变化等领域将发挥越来越重要的作用。     

密云水库水环境变化及其生态保护

本文通过对密云水库10年来环境变化的分析，从生态保护的角度出发，阐述了水资源的生态保护及资源开发措施。     

Beyond Frames: Recovering the Strategic in Climate Communication

Recent calls for communication scholars and practitioners to identify effective communication means for mobilizing constituencies to address climate change often fall to distinguish between communicative acts that “mobilize” and mobilization that enables a particular end. The latter presupposes an account of the intentional or strategic alignment of mobilization, that is, the predicted or assumed relationships among a mobilized public, the mode(s) of influence or leverage this creates, and the expected consequences of such influence, i.e., how specific communicative efforts are related to outcomes or “effects” within a system. This essay argues that the neglect of strategic alignments in some recent climate communication campaigns have caused these campaigns to be non-adaptive at the scale and/or urgency required. Drawing on case studies of the 2007 Step It Up initiative and the Sierra Club's “Beyond Coal” campaign, the essay proposes viewing the strategic as an heuristic for identifying openings within networks of contingent relationships and the potential of certain communicative efforts to interrupt or leverage change within systems of power.     

江苏苏南地区大气环境质量变化分析及污染防治对策

通过对江苏省苏南地区大气环境中主要污染因子二氧化硫、二氧化氮及可吸入颗粒物2009年及2005～2009五年来变化情况及原因进行分析,提出污染控制对策和治理措施。     

江湖关系演变对洞庭湖水质变化影响研究

利用长江中下游地区监测站点1950~2009年逐日水文监测数据及1995~2010年水质分析资料,结合Spearman相关分析和综合污染指数评价法,分析了长江中下游江湖关系演变对洞庭湖水质变化影响,并面向洞庭湖水环境安全提出一系列调控措施,旨在为洞庭湖地区水质改善提供理论基础与技术支持。     

Future land-use change scenarios for the Black Sea catchment

Plausible future scenarios have been created for the Black Sea catchment, focussing on spatially explicit alternatives for land-use changes. Four qualitative storylines (HOT, ALONE, COOP and COOL) were first developed, based on interpretation of the respective global scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Quantitative statistical downscaling techniques were then used to disaggregate the outputs of global scenarios at a regional level. The resulting land-use maps were spatially allocated at 1 km resolution in the Metronamica model, using a set of factors related to the identified drivers of change. The land-use change model was calibrated on historical trends of land-cover change (MODIS 2001 and 2008) translated into spatial allocation rules, and future land-use projections (IMAGE, 2001) were adopted. Suitability and constraint maps and population trends were used to regulate the modelling process. The calibrated model was validated by statistical procedures, visual evaluation and stakeholder involvement in order to ensure its plausibility and accuracy. This methodology bridged the gap between the global and regional scales. Four simulated future states were produced for the main land-use classes–forest, grassland, cropland and built-up areas, as well as scrublands, crops/natural vegetation and barren land–for 2025 and 2050. The results suggest that the features highlighted in these scenarios are guided by global trends, such as population rise and decreasing agriculture, but with different growth rates and a variety of spatial patterns, with regional variations resulting from local backgrounds and policy objectives. This study aims to provide future land-use data as a potential geographical tool to assist policy makers in addressing environmental emergencies such as water stress and pollution. In particular, the exploration of plausible futures can support future assessments to comply with the EU Water Framework Directive and Integrated Coastal Zone Management policies around the Black Sea.     

Comparison of young male and female drivers' attitude and self-reported traffic behaviour in Finland in 1978 and 2001

Problem: This study evaluates how the traffic behaviors of young drivers and their attitudes toward traffic regulations have changed over the last 23 years, and particularly, whether the differences in attitudes and behavior between male and female drivers have changed. Method: The study was conducted in 2001, and it replicated a traffic attitude survey administered in 1978. The same survey was used, enabling comparison between the years. The number of respondents was 3,158 in 1978 and 2,759 in 2001. Results: The comparison revealed several differences regarding the background factors, attitudes, and driving style of novice drivers. Most obvious changes in the drivers' background were the changes in education level (higher today), driver training (more private training today), and exposure/experience in terms of kilometers (more today). The summary variable measured that the young drivers showed more negative attitudes toward traffic rules and safe driving in 2001 compared to 1978. Female drivers drove less than males and evaluated their driving skill lower. Female drivers were less involved in accidents and they committed less traffic offenses than males (kilometrage controlled). Female drivers showed a more positive attitude toward traffic safety and rules than males. The difference in traffic attitudes and behavior between males and females in 1978 compared to 2001 remained the same or even increased somewhat.     

转换因数及其在环境监测计算中的应用

本文论述了转换因数的概念及其在环境监测中的应用。阐明转换因数应用中使计算简明化、简单化;数据合理化、实际化。     

沈阳市和平区环境空气质量现状及变化趋势

本文通过对和平区近几年环境空气监测数据的分析,评价了和平区“八·五”期间的环境空气质量状况及变化趋势。     

基于MERIS影像的洪泽湖叶绿素a浓度时空变化规律分析

叶绿素a(Chl-a)浓度是衡量藻类生物量及评价水体营养状态的重要指标.基于洪泽湖2016年7月、2016年12月共49个实测水质参数与同步光谱数据,验证了5种可应用于MERIS/OLCI数据的Chl-a遥感估算模型(包括波段比值模型、三波段模型、FLH模型、MCI模型以及UMOC模型)在洪泽湖水域的适用性.结果表明,UMOC模型是最适用于洪泽湖水域的Chl-a浓度估算模型,其平均相对误差为32.30%,低于波段比值模型的75.17%,三波段模型的62.44%,FLH模型的45.87%和MCI模型的56.95%.进而利用UMOC模型,结合MERIS数据,获取了洪泽湖2002~2012年Chl-a浓度遥感估算产品,并分析了洪泽湖Chl-a浓度的时空变化规律.洪泽湖Chl-a浓度具有明显的时空差异性.依据水体像元长时间序列月平均Chl-a浓度的差异,将洪泽湖水体分为了区域A、区域B和区域C这3种类型.区域B和区域C水体无明显的变化趋势,区域A则显著增加.与气象因子的相关性分析表明,区域B和区域C年平均Chl-a的波动主要受年降水量的影响,反映了该2个区域Chl-a浓度的变化主要受湖流强度的控制,区域A年平均Chl-a浓度的变化与年平均风速呈显著负相关性,风速下降的气候大背景可能会加重这一区域的富营养化程度,威胁南水北调的水质安全.此外,在汛期(7~9月)洪泽湖水体Chl-a浓度与离淮河入湖口的距离呈显著的正相关关系,证明了这一时期淮河对洪泽湖藻类浓度具有明显的抑制作用.