System dynamics research of non-adaptive evacuation psychology in toxic gas leakage emergencies of chemical park

Chemical industry park plays an important role in optimizing the allocation of resources, but an emergency may make a great deal of personnel casualty and property loss. Many casualties are not the result of accidents but are caused by extreme behavior because of the non-adaptive psychology of the evacuees. Panic is one of the non-adaptive psychological behaviors during an evacuation, which is influenced by a variety of factors. Based on the consideration of the disaster environment and the evolution of crowd emotion, a system dynamics model of panic spread is established by using Anylogic software, and simulation experiments are carried out for different disaster severity, visibility, and groups. The results show that the number of people with severe panic increase when visibility decreases or disaster diffuses. Besides, the appropriate proportion of groups can effectively reduce the cooling time of crowd and ease the fears. However, continue to increase the number of groups has no significant effect on the panic control. This work can provide some reasonable guidance for regional emergency evacuation in chemical park.     

Local hegemonies resisting a green shift and what to do about it: the introduction of a regional park in southern Norway

In the Lister region in the southern part of Norway, attempts are currently being made to facilitate for a green shift. The paper discusses two different approaches towards such a challenge. The first is procedural, where success or failure hinges on the methods applied in the effort to convince locals to incorporate climate considerations. The alternative is to reflect upon how a green ideology blends into pre-existing ideological elements in the region. It is claimed that an important reason for the failure so far to place the environment at the core of regional development, is that too much emphasis has been put on the first approach, on procedure and dialogue, whereas few efforts have been made to understand the structure of the discursive terrain in the region. What prevents a green shift has less to do with methods and is more connected to the dominance of a logic of economic growth and the fact that locals are confident that nature is already dealt with in a sensible manner. The conclusion is that we need to understand what people are concerned about and what prevents them to change, before we start telling them how to think and do development.     

Justice for Bhopal! And No More Bhopals! Three decades of national and international campaigning

Dissatisfaction with the responses of the responsible corporation, Union Carbide, and the Indian government to Bhopal resulted in a campaign by national and international NGOs (non-governmental organisations) over the past three decades. While initially the Indian and international campaigns were separate, over time greater international cooperation took place. In the immediate aftermath of the disaster local NGOs prioritised health, justice and rehabilitation issues, while international NGOs used Bhopal to question chemical industry process and environmental safety in their own countries, as well as internationally. Indian NGOs called on international NGO resources to gain legitimacy for their campaign, to use NGOs as proxies and to extend the geographical scope of the campaign, while international NGOs used Bhopal as an example to advance NGOs analyses and policies. Over the period of the campaign, Indian NGOs became more sophisticated in their campaigning. The international campaign has increasingly become an online campaign, involved in an image or reputational war with Dow Chemical, which took over Union Carbide, while the original campaign issues of justice and reparations over the process safety disaster were joined by similar issues related to environmental safety of abandoned toxic waste.     

Uncertainties in QRA: Analysis of losses of containment from piping and implications on risk prevention and mitigation

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is commonly used in the chemical industry to support decision-making. Common practices are based on standard methods, such as fault tree, event tree, etc.; in this frame, risk is a function of frequency of events (probability) and associated consequences (negative outcomes), but relevant uncertainties often are not properly taken into account in the derived results. This paper presents the application of an extended risk analysis of loss of containments for a case-study with the following aims: firstly, the uncertainties related to the results of the analysis, which derive from assumption in the application of the standard models, are qualitatively assessed; secondly the application allows evaluating the impact of the uncertainties on the trustworthiness of the results and, finally, commenting about their use in the risk prevention and mitigation.     

The impact of coal and non-coal consumption on China's energy performance improvement

China is the world's largest energy consumer, and coal accounts for a higher proportion of the country's total energy consumption, yet during its 12th five-year plan (2011–2015), the coal share among total energy consumption significantly decreased. Previous studies exploring energy performance typically used energy consumption as an input, but this lacks the analytical capacity for the structure of energy consumption. Thus, this study splits energy input into two different inputs, coal consumption and non-coal energy consumption, and based on their differences with other variables, uses the hybrid dynamic data envelopment analysis model to assess the energy performance of China's provincial industrial sector during the period 2011 to 2015. We then compare coal consumption's and non-coal consumption's rooms for improvement and conclude that provinces in eastern and central China should reduce the amount of coal consumption, thereby improving energy performance. Conversely, provinces in the western region should target a balance between energy utilization efficiency and coal consumption.     

Survey-based analysis of evacuation preparation behaviors in a chemical leakage accident: A case study

Public evacuation preparation exerts an important impact on overall evacuation efficiency during regional evacuations. Early warnings often delay the occurrence of chemical accidents. Studying the characteristics of public evacuation preparation in such accidents will help develop better evacuation strategies considering the actual public response. In this work, the characteristics and factors influencing public evacuation preparation behaviors were analyzed by examining an evacuation case in China. The results indicated that the probability distribution of public's evacuation preparation time during a regional evacuation conforms to a Weibull distribution regardless of whether or not evacuation warnings were received. An estimation model of the traffic flow loading rate in a regional evacuation was then proposed on the basis of this finding. The results of this research can provide a reliable reference for evacuation modeling or logistics optimization for future incidents.     

跨区域应急协作视角下化工园区空间布局的失衡与应对策略分析

随着工业化进程加快,我国化工园区呈现出数量逐年递增且集中分布的态势,增加了跨区域重大突发事件的风险,如何实现跨区域的应急协作成为化工园区安全规划所面临的重点与难点问题之一。基于此,搜集近15 a全国化工园区的安全事故,采用自组织特征映射神经网络分类方法与多元回归模型研究全国范围内化工园区安全事故的空间分布规律及影响因素,进而从风险分布与应急协作需求的匹配性角度讨论我国现有应急协作机制存在的潜在问题。研究结果表明:我国化工园区整体空间布局呈现出以区域优势为导向的趋势,其选址大多忽略了化工园区集中区域的高风险与应急能力不足的问题,这种布局的失衡使得政府无法形成高效的跨区域应急协作体制;化工园区数量上的增加并非是导致危机事故的主要原因,强调了化工园区自身特征与危机事故严重程度的相关性,区域间应急联动协作在化工园区危机应对过程中的重要作用;最后,从空间布局、跨区域协作角度提出化工园区区域应急协作的相应政策建议。     

我国特种劳动防护用品产业分布特点分析

为了解我国特种劳动防护用品产业分布特点和产业市场集中程度,基于生产企业统计数据,估算我国特种劳动防护用品产业市场集中度;对比2017年和2010年数据,统计分析我国特种劳动防护用品产业的区域、产品种类、企业注册资金规模和企业从业人员数量的分布和变化,分析总结了产业发展呈现的特点,提出了加快我国特种劳动防护用品产业发展的相应建议。结果表明:当前我国特种劳动防护用品产业市场结构尚属于低集中竞争型;各区域生产企业数量按照东部、中部、西部和东北的顺序依次递减,东部生产企业占据全国企业总数的65%以上;一半以上企业的注册资金均大于1 000万元;以从业人员数量看,80%以上企业属于小型企业规模;与2010年相比,2017年我国特种劳动防护用品生产企业从业人员数量增加了6.67%,企业从业人员规模分布变化不明显,企业注册资金规模已由约7成企业在500万元以下转变为近7成超过500万元,产品种类增加了40%。研究结果可为我国劳动防护用品产业和安全产业的发展提供科学参考。     

Heavy-metal fractionation and distribution in soil profiles short-term-irrigated with sewage wastewater

Six soil profiles irrigated and non-irrigated with sewage wastewater were investigated for soil pH, electrical conductivity (EC), organic matter (OM), and CaCO₃. The distributions and chemical fractions of Cu, Zn, Cd, and Pb, and their lability were also studied. The results indicated that pH, EC, OM, and CaCO₃, as well as metal fractionation in soil profiles were affected by wastewater irrigation, especially in the surface layer. The surface layer (0-15 cm) irrigated with wastewater exhibited a 0.6 unit decrease in soil pH, a 40.6% decrease in CaCO₃, and a 200% increase in EC as compared with that of the non-irrigated soil. The soil OM increased from 0.04% to 0.35% in the surface layer. The irrigation of soil with wastewater resulted in transformation of metals from the carbonate fraction (CARB) towards the exchangeable (EXCH), Fe-Mn oxide (ERO), and organic (OM) fraction for Zn, towards the EXCH, the OM, and residual fraction for Cu, and towards the exchangeable (EXCH) fraction for Cd. It was concluded that the use of sewage wastewater led to salt accumulation and an increase in the readily labile fraction of Zn, Cu, and Cd in the surface layer. Therefore, this reason may limit the use of wastewater under arid and semi-arid conditions.     

河西走廊园林绿地复合系统的夏季小气候效应

选择17种不同结构的园林绿地复合系统，对光照、温度、湿度和防尘效应进行测定，综合评价这17种园林绿地复合系统在改善城市气候方面的作用．结论是：乔、灌、草园林绿地复合系统在改善城市气候方面的作用最大，表4参7