巢湖流域旱涝时空特性分析

利用巢湖流域14个站点39年(1961~2000年)的降水观测资料,采用Z指数作为旱涝指标,运用地理信息系统(GIS)等方法,对巢湖流域汛期旱涝的时空变化特征进行了分析探讨,其结果表明:巢湖流域旱涝灾害十分频繁,旱涝灾害发生的频率和降水量呈现正相关关系,具有阶段性和周期性等特性,空间分布上存在一定的结构性,巢湖流域北部为易旱易涝区,西部为易旱区,东南部、南部是易涝区,中北部是不易旱易涝区。     

吉林省城市大气降水pH值时空分异及成因

通过对吉林省８个代表城市１９９２－１９９７年大气降水观测数据的统计分析,对大气降水ＰＨ值的时空分异进行了探讨。结果表明：吉林省中西部城市大气降水基本呈中性;东部的图们,珲春两市大气降水酸化亚得,多年平均降水ＰＨ分别为５．１２和５．３８;全省碱性降水多集中在吉林市。     

锡林郭勒盟植被物候枯黄期对干湿变化的时间多尺度响应

基于全球监测与建模组(GIMMS)1982～2015年第三代归一化植被指数(NDVI)GIMMS NDVI 3g数据集和气象观测数据,采用累计NDVI的Logistic曲线曲率极值法提取锡林郭勒草原植被枯黄期,并结合不同时间尺度标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)分析植被枯黄期对干湿变化的响应特征.结果表明:1982～201...     

Analysis of Meteorological Drought Pattern During Different Climatic and Cropping Seasons in Bangladesh

Drought is one of the most frequent natural disasters in Bangladesh which severely affect agro‐based economy and people's livelihood in almost every year. Characterization of droughts in a systematic way is therefore critical in order to take necessary actions toward drought mitigation and sustainable development. In this study, standardized precipitation index is used to understand the spatial distribution of meteorological droughts during various climatic seasons such as premonsoon, monsoon, and winter seasons as well as cropping seasons such as Pre‐Kharif (March‐May), Kharif (May‐October), and Rabi (December‐February). Rainfall data collected from 29 rainfall gauge stations located in different parts of the country were used for a period of 50 years (1961‐2010). The study reveals that the spatial characteristics of droughts vary widely according to season. Premonsoon droughts are more frequent in the northwest, monsoon droughts mainly occur in the west and northwest, winter droughts in the west, and the Rabi and Kharif droughts are more frequent in the north and northwest of Bangladesh. It is expected that the findings of the study will support drought monitoring and mitigation activities in Bangladesh.     

酸性氯化铜蚀刻废液一步沉淀法制备碱式碳酸铜

以酸性氯化铜蚀刻废液为原料,在Na₂CO₃和助剂A存在下,采用一步沉淀法制备碱式碳酸铜。考察了反应pH、n（Na₂CO₃）∶n（助剂A）、反应时间和反应温度对碱式碳酸铜制备效果的影响,并采用XRD、TG 及SEM对产品进行了表征。实验结果表明：在反应pH 7.0、沉淀剂配比n（Na₂CO₃）∶n（助剂A）=1∶2、反应时间1.0 h、反应温度70 ℃的条件下,产品的w（Cu²⁺）达55.62%,w（Cl^-）为0.013%,符合HG/T 4825—2015《工业碱式碳酸铜》的要求;蚀刻废液中Cu²⁺的回收率接近100%。表征结果表明,制得的产品为单一组分CuCO₃·Cu（OH）₂,小颗粒为直径1.8~5.4 μm的不规则球形,团聚后的大颗粒呈姜块状形貌,粒径为48~75 μm。     

几种化学药剂对淡水单孔蚓虫卵及幼虫的杀灭效果研究

为寻求有效杀死"红虫"虫卵的药剂及杀灭幼虫的最小药剂用量,在20℃条件下,使用氯胺、高锰酸钾及过氧化氢溶液对虫卵及幼虫进行杀灭实验。结果表明:氯胺溶液对"红虫"虫卵的杀灭效果并不理想;在虫卵杀灭处理中,使用高锰酸钾溶液是不可行的;过氧化氢对"红虫"虫卵具有极强的杀灭效果,0.05%的过氧化氢在30 min内即可将虫卵有效杀死;低浓度氯胺溶液对"红虫"幼虫具有较好的杀灭效果,起始余氯值为1.3 mg/L的氯胺溶液即可在1 d内将"红虫"幼虫全部杀死。     

A multidecadal oscillation in precipitation and temperature series is pronounced in low flow series from Puget Sound streams

In Pacific Northwest streams, summer low flows limit water available to competing instream (salmon) and out-of-stream (human) uses, creating broad interest in how and why low flows are trending. Analyses that assumed linear (monotonic) change over the last ~60 years revealed declining low flow trends in minimally disturbed streams. Here, polynomials were used to model flow trends between 1929 and 2015. A multidecadal oscillation was observed in flows, which increased initially from the 1930s until the 1950s, declined until the 1990s, and then increased again. A similar oscillation was detected in precipitation series, and opposing oscillations in surface temperature, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation series. Multidecadal oscillations with similar periods to those described here are well known in climate indices. Fitted model terms were consistent with flow trends being influenced by at least two drivers, one oscillating and the other monotonic. Anthropogenic warming is a candidate driver for the monotonic decline, and variation in (internal) climatic circulation for the oscillating trend, but others were not ruled out. The recent upturn in streamflows suggests that anthropogenic warming has not been the dominant factor driving streamflow trends, at least until 2015. Climate projections based on simulations that omit drivers of multidecadal variation are likely to underestimate the range, and rate of change, of future climatic variation.     

塔城地区的干旱因素探讨

通过对塔城地区自然情况及水利设施建设方面的介绍及分析，总结了影响干旱的一些因素，并提出了相应的对策和建议，以减缓塔城地区的干旱问题。     

GPM卫星降水数据在天山山区的适用性分析

卫星降水产品在山区的适用性具有较高的不确定性。论文基于天山山区2014-2015年167个气象站点数据,应用较为广泛的两套卫星降水产品--TRMM与CMORPH,选用均方根误差（RMSE）、相关系数（R）、相对误差（PB）,以及分类统计分析指标（错报率FAR、探测率POD、公正先兆评分ETS、频率偏差BIAS）等,评估了新一代卫星降水产品--Global Precipitation Measurement（GPM）在天山山区的适用性。结果表明：相对于以上两种产品,GPM在山区的精度最高。具体表现在：1）3套产品在降水较多的夏秋季均表现较好,相对于TRMM与CMORPH,GPM与观测数据的相关系数最高（R≥0.6）,相对误差最小（PB≈10%）;2）在整个天山山区,GPM相对于其他两套产品表现出较低的误差范围（-55%~55%）;3）GPM在不同的高程带内,均表现出同观测站点较低的误差与较高的相关系数;4）3套降水产品均表现出对探测弱降水事件较高的准确性（POD≈0.58）和较低的错误率（FAR≈0.63）,但综合分析4种指数,GPM表现最佳,能够以较准确的精度和较低的误差估测降水系统。     

地球系统模式CESM模拟的ENSO变率与中国东部降水格局

根据地球系统模式（CESM）的千年控制模拟试验结果,以Niño3.4区的逐月海表温度变化为指标,辨识了212次El Niño事件、226次La Niña事件;分析了El Niño和La Niña事件发生当年及次年中国东部5-9月降水异常的空间格局;探讨了ENSO与华北、江淮、江南和华南4个区域旱涝的关系。结果表明：El Niño事件发生的当年5-9月,华北和华南地区降水减少2%~10%,长江中下游地区降水略有增加（0~2%）;次年,江南地区转为降水增加（2%~10%）,华北北部降水继续减少。在La Niña事件发生的当年,华北地区降水偏多（增加2%~10%）;次年,江淮地区降水显著减少（2%~5%）。ENSO增强会导致降水变幅加大。在El Niño衰减并向La Niña快速发展的年份,江南地区出现洪涝灾害的概率较其他年份高1倍以上。这些认识为深入揭示气候系统内部年际变率对中国东部降水格局变化与区域旱涝的影响作用、理解2016年长江中下游发生重大洪涝灾害提供了异常天气气候背景依据。