试论地震灾害对经济社会发展的影响

通过收集整理我国大陆显著地震灾害事件与社会经济发展的相关资料,分析讨论不同经济体制下地震灾害对经济社会发展、产业结构调整等方面的影响,并对地震灾后恢复重建提出对策建议。     

山区沿河公路水毁危险性评价方法的研究

为了预测评价山区沿河公路水毁灾害,通过理论分析和专家系统调查,阐明了沿河公路水毁危险性的含义,确定了其主要危险因子(洪水流量、水位、流速)和次要危险因子(洪水持续时间、河流形态)。运用灰色系统的关联度方法,根据关联序确定了各危险因子的权重;在因子等级划分的基础上,提出了沿河公路水毁危险性指数的计算方法,并在工程中得到了应用。研究成果可供沿河公路水毁易发段危险性点及整个路段的评价参考。     

Cs, Pu concentrations and the Pu/Pu atom ratio in a sediment core from the sub-aqueous delta of Yangtze River estuary

A sediment core collected from the sub-aqueous delta of the Yangtze River estuary was subjected to analyses of ¹³⁷Cs and plutonium (Pu) isotopes. The ¹³⁷Cs was measured using γ-spectrometry at the laboratories at the Nanjing University and Pu isotopes were determined with Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS), measurements made at the Australian National University. The results show considerable structure in the depth concentration profiles of the ¹³⁷Cs and ^239+240Pu. The shape of the vertical ¹³⁷Cs distribution in the sediment core was similar to that of the Pu. The maximum ¹³⁷Cs and ^239+240Pu concentrations were 16.21 ± 0.95 mBq/g and 0.716 ± 0.030 mBq/g, respectively, and appear at same depth. The average ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu atom ratio was 0.238 ± 0.007 in the sediment core, slightly higher than the average global fallout value. The changes in the ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu atom ratios in the sediment core indicate the presence of at least two different Pu sources, i.e., global fallout and another source, most likely close-in fallout from the Pacific Proving Grounds (PPG) in the Marshall Islands, and suggest the possibility that Pu isotopes are useful as a geochronological tool for coastal sediment studies. The ¹³⁷Cs and ^239+240Pu inventories were estimated to be 7100 ± 1200 Bq/m² and 407 ± 27 Bq/m², respectively. Approximately 40% of the ^239+240Pu inventory originated from the PPG close-in fallout and about 50% has derived from land-origin global fallout transported to the estuary by the river. This study confirms that AMS is a useful tool to measure ²⁴⁰Pu/²³⁹Pu atom ratio and can provide valuable information on sedimentary processes in the coastal environment.     

三峡工程蓄水后荆江河段河势变化及生态护岸研究

三峡工程蓄水以来,进入长江中下游河道的水沙过程发生明显改变,从而导致中下游河道尤其是荆江河段冲刷、崩塌,局部河段河势调整较为剧烈,并导致主流顶冲部位发生变化,可能会引起新的崩岸发生。分析了荆江河段河势变化特点,列举了各种传统护岸方法,分析了传统护岸的特点和适用性,针对传统护岸工程的不足,提出生态护岸理念,在满足整体性、稳定性、适应变形等要求下,采取工程措施与植物措施共同护岸,并为河道与河岸之间水分交换提供条件,建立了水生生态系统和陆地生态系统之间的联系,实现了河流原本完整的结构和作为生态廊道的功能,进而保证整个生态系统的稳定,有利于生态环境的保护和水土保持,实现生态理念,满足生态需要,达到人与自然和谐发展。     

河流近域土地利用格局与水质相关性分析——以巢湖流域为例

以河流近域土地利用构成与水环境质量间定量关系为研究对象,基于巢湖流域40个水质监测断面和320个河流近域作用区,运用GIS空间分析功能计算不同尺度作用区内土地利用构成,借助相关分析、冗余分析(RDA)等数理统计手段,分析土地利用构成与水质指数间的相关关系;并分析和比较了流域内山区和平原地区土地利用构成与水质之间关系。结果表明,巢湖流域近河道地区土地利用构成对各水质指数有重要影响,且受地形因素影响。其中,建设用地对河流水质恶化具有明显作用;河流沿岸林地布局能显著改善水质,尤其是对氨氮和高锰酸盐指数敏感;耕地面积变化与水质相关性不显著。RDA冗余分析证实了不同尺度下的土地利用类型对水环境影响具有尺度效应。研究成果对巢湖流域水环境管理具有重要的实际指导意义,并为同类研究提供借鉴     

北京市人口老龄化的时空变化特征

人口老龄化现已成为当今主要的人口问题之一,并引起越来越多的关注,人口老龄化进程与老年人口空间分布特征研究是未来人口问题研究的一个重要分支.本文基于ESDA全局和局部空间自相关分析,利用北京市第四次和第五次人口普查数据以及1995和2005年1％人口抽样调查数据,对北京市县域尺度老龄人口分布总体和局部空间差异的变化趋势、特征进行了初步探索.结果表明,北京市老龄人口空间分布各区县差异较大,且呈现出明显的圈层结构特征,中心四城区老龄人口比重较高,近郊区老龄人口比重较全市平均水平低,远郊区老年人口比重又有所回升;同时,北京地区老年人口各区县的空间分布差异随着时间的推移而不断扩大,中心老城区呈现不断增强的集聚趋势,而远郊区的老年人口扩散效应明显大于集聚效应.     

中国流域生态补偿标准核算方法分析

补偿标准核算是建立流域生态补偿机制的重要内容,也是生态补偿机制实施的关键环节.本文选取政策视角归纳了我国10个省份已经发布和实施的流域生态补偿政策的基本内容,对这些政策的补偿标准核算方法进行了分类,提出以成本和价值作为补偿标准核算方法分类的依据.结合流域生态补偿标准相关的研究成果以及国外政策,对我国流域生态补偿标准核算的政策内容进行了分析,在此基础上对政策层面流域生态补偿标准核算方法的发展和完善提出了建议.为了体现经济规律,同时增强生态补偿制度的激励作用,流域生态补偿政策中的补偿标准在污染赔偿方面需要进一步体现水污染造成的损失,在保护补偿方面需要体现水资源保护的经济价值.在未来我国流域生态补偿实施的过程中,相关方面协商确定补偿标准的趋势将会日益明显,在这个过程中各种量化核算和调查方法可以发挥比较重要的支持作用.本文的分析结果对于推动国家层面流域生态补偿标准核算政策制定或规范地方实践活动具有一定的参考价值.     

Comprehensive Assessment and Promotion Policy of Producer Services’ Competitiveness in Beijing City:A Comparative Analysis among Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen

The five central cities-Beijing,Tianjin,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen-of the three most important strategic regions in China,namely Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region,the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta,are taken as a comparative analysis on urban producer services’ competitiveness,especially focusing on the comparative advantages and disadvantages of producer services in Beijing.Firstly,based on an integrated indicator system including one objective hierarchy,four standard hierarchies and 35 indicator hierarchies,the study applies factor analysis model and analytic hierarchy process model reformed by entropy technology to measure the comprehensive competitiveness of producer services in the above five cities.Secondly,Beijing has comparative advantages of capital resource,industrial base,scientific research resource and market scale,since it takes the first place of the five cities in the comprehensive competitiveness of producer services,the competitiveness of industrial development,business environment and living environment,only inferior to Shanghai in the competitiveness of talent capital.Thirdly,Beijing has comparative disadvantages in the level of producer services development,urban innovation capability and living environment.Finally,five proposals are put forth to enhance the competitiveness of producer services in Beijing,namely perfecting the system of laws and statutes,supporting the development of industry association,implementing scientific development planning,introducing preferential fiscal and taxation policies and strengthening human capital reserve.     

Impacts of Suburbanization on Urban Eco-environment of Xi’an in China

Suburbanization in large cities is an important phenomenon in the process of urbanization development in China in recent decades,which plays a very important role in promoting city development,whereas some side effects on the eco-environment appeared at the same time.This paper,taking Xi’an City in China as a case study site,analyzed the features of population suburbanization and industry suburbanization and pointed out the impacts of suburbanization on urban eco-environment.Based on the research,suggestions of countermeasures for urban planning and municipal management of Xi’an City in protecting urban eco-environment and conserving natural ecology were put forward in the end.     

经济发达地区农村居民点潜力释放空间选择

农村居民点潜力释放是城乡统筹发展的重要课题,潜力释放的空间优选则是城乡空间格局统筹的基础。基于农村居民点适宜性评价,构建经济发展潜力、居住便利性和生态环境耦合而成的指标体系,评估研究区域以行政村为单元的居住适宜性空间序列,形成适宜性分区,并根据农村居民点潜力的空间分布,统筹考虑城镇发展和耕地保护的要求,建立农村居民点潜力释放优先序的选择矩阵,形成分时序、分空间的潜力释放方案。研究结果表明：陆渡镇、浏河镇农村居民点潜力释放最优的区域主要位于沿江的东海等4个行政村,次优先潜力释放的区域包括陆渡等3个行政村,第三优先潜力释放的区域包括斑竹等10个行政村,第四优先潜力释放区域包括天浜等6个行政村,最后释放潜力的区域主要是陆渡镇和浏河镇建成区内的农村居民点。最后,提出了不同区域潜力释放模式的建议。