The effect of species response form on species distribution model prediction and inference

Ecological theory and current evidence support the validity of various species response curves according to a variety of environmental gradients. Various methods have been developed for building species distribution models but it is not well known how these methods perform under various assumptions about the form of the underlying species response. It is also not well known how spatial correlation in species occurrence affects model performance. These effects were investigated by applying an environmental envelope method (BIOCLIM) and three regression-based methods: logistic regression (LR), generalized additive modelling (GAM), and classification and regression tree (CART) to simulated species occurrence data. Each simulated species was constructed as a sum of responses with varying weights. Three basic species response curves were assumed: Gaussian (bell-shaped), Beta (skew) and linear. The two non-linear responses conform to standard ecological niche theory. All three responses were applied in turn to three simulated environmental variables, each with varying degrees of spatial autocorrelation. GAM produced the most consistent model performance over all forms of simulated species response. BIOCLIM and CART were inclined to underrate the performance of variables with a linear response. BIOCLIM was less sensitive to data density. LR was susceptible to model misspecification. The use of a linear function in LR underestimated the performance of variables with non-linear species response and contributed to increased spatial autocorrelation in model residuals. Omission of important environmental variables with non-linear species response also contributed to increased spatial autocorrelation in model residuals. Adding a spatial autocovariate term to the LR model (autologistic model) reduced the spatial autocorrelation and improved model performance, but did not correct the misidentification of the dominant environmental determinant. This is to be expected since the autologistic approach was designed primarily for prediction and not for inference. Given that various forms of species response to environmental determinants arise commonly in nature: (1) higher order functions should always be tested when applying LR in modelling species distribution; (2) spatial autocorrelation in species distribution model residuals can indicate that environmental determinants with non-linear response are missing from the model; and (3) deficiencies in LR model performance due to model misspecification can be addressed by adding a spatial autocovariate to the model, but care should be taken when interpreting the coefficients of the model parameters.     

Comments on optimizing the selection of the number of groups in a classification tree

In a recent issue of this journal Guidi et al. (2009) proposed a Random Simulation Test (RST) to assist with the determination of the optimal number of clusters to be extracted from a hierarchical classification tree. This short note illustrates the potential influence that the richness of a simulated new site has on the determination of the optimal level to cut the dendrogram. This is discussed in the context of the need for clear objectives and criteria against which a classification tree can be evaluated. A simple modification of the RST is proposed that the simulated new site of the matrix has an appropriate number of positive entries that lies within the range of the observed matrix. The impact of this modification is then evaluated using an ecological community site-by-species matrix.     

Applications of artificial neural networks for patterning and predicting aquatic insect species richness in running waters

Two artificial neural networks (ANNs), unsupervised and supervised learning algorithms, were applied to suggest practical approaches for the analysis of ecological data. Four major aquatic insect orders (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera, and Coleoptera, i.e. EPTC), and four environmental variables (elevation, stream order, distance from the source, and water temperature) were used to implement the models. The data were collected and measured at 155 sampling sites on streams of the Adour–Garonne drainage basin (South-western France). The modelling procedure was carried out following two steps. First, a self-organizing map (SOM), an unsupervised ANN, was applied to classify sampling sites using EPTC richness. Second, a backpropagation algorithm (BP), a supervised ANN, was applied to predict EPTC richness using a set of four environmental variables. The trained SOM classified sampling sites according to a gradient of EPTC richness, and the groups obtained corresponded to geographic regions of the drainage basin and characteristics of their environmental variables. The SOM showed its convenience to analyze relationships among sampling sites, biological attributes, and environmental variables. After accounting for the relationships in data sets, the BP used to predict the EPTC richness with a set of four environmental variables showed a high accuracy (r=0.91 and r=0.61 for training and test data sets respectively). The prediction of EPTC richness is thus a valuable tool to assess disturbances in given areas: by knowing what the EPTC richness should be, we can determine the degree to which disturbances have altered it. The results suggested that methodologies successively using two different neural networks are helpful to understand ecological data through ordination first, and then to predict target variables.     

Design standards for product end-of-life processing

In 2006, the British Standards Institute (BSI) published BS 8887-1 ‘Design for Manufacture, Assembly, Disassembly and End-of-life processing’ (MADE) subtitled ‘General Concepts, Processes and Requirements’. This was the first British Standard to address design for efficient post-consumer product reprocessing. By designing and planning for remanufacture, much of the embodied energy and production investment can be retrieved after the consumer no longer requires the original item. Therefore, end-of-life products become an asset rather than a liability. Design for disassembly facilitates efficient deconstruction and thus enables materials to be recycled with minimal loss of purity, thus maximising their value. The analysis presented here is based on the Standard Industrial Classification codes of companies and organisations that have purchased BS 8887-1. These data are considered in relation to the influence of environmental legislation. Company age, size and location, as well as ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 certifications, are discussed. This paper concludes by suggesting suitable directions for the continued distribution and development of this environmentally, economically and socially beneficial standard.     

航空遥感影像上震害解译的结构模型与几何特征的获取

首先给出了基于航空遥感影像的震害分类方案及各种震害在遥感图像上的主要特征,提出了一种震害解译的结构模型。然后讨论了震害的几何测度指标,并研究了震害几何特征的获取,最后对遥感影像震害解译的前景进行了展望。     

苏州河的污染底泥评价

以底泥与流动水相的边界环境为研究对象，应用苏州河底的释放与耗氧规律，在控制地面水水质标准的环境基础上拟定了底泥评价分级标准，将评价的有机污染指标确定为未污染，污染、重污染底泥的类型级别。应用拟定的分级标准对苏州河的污染底泥进行评价，指出若对属于重类型的部分河段底泥进行整治，则整个市区段底泥释放至水相的深度，将接近地面水三级标准。     

成都市生活垃圾分类支付意愿及影响因素的问卷调查分析

为了为成都市垃圾分类政策制定提供科学依据,文章基于问卷调研,运用条件价值评估法结合二元Logistic回归模型、多元线性回归模型,分析了成都市居民对城市生活垃圾分类的支付意愿(WTP)及其影响因素。调研发现:问卷填报者中95.3%的人支持强制垃圾分类,但仅21.0%人深入掌握垃圾分类知识;造成成都市垃圾分类失效的原因,73.8%的人认为政策不到位,需要采取强制监管措施,67.6%的人认为垃圾分类桶等基础硬件设施建设不到位,69.2%的人认为居民自身环保意识差,需要加强环保宣传教育。成都市居民生活垃圾治理的WTP金额为12.65元/月/户。年龄、有无住房、户口类型和月收入4个因素对支付额度有显著影响。     

The classification of lands managed for conservation: existing and proposed frameworks, with particular reference to Australia

Comprehensive classification systems to accurately account for lands managed for biodiversity conservation, are an essential component of conservation planning and policy. The current international classification systems for lands managed for nature conservation are reviewed, with a particular emphasis on Australia. The need for a broader, all-encompassing, categorisation of lands managed for conservation is presented and a proposed broader categorisation system is developed—the Conservation Lands Classification. This classification system has the advantage of incorporating data on both tenure and protection mechanisms and has been applied in this paper using conservation lands in three Australian jurisdictions as examples. It is envisaged that this method of classification has the potential to significantly improve the ability to measure current and future trends in nature conservation across all land types at a variety of scales and hence is put forward in order to stimulate discussion on this important topic.     

1986～2015年棋盘山水库湿地保护地生态系统演变分析

为探讨沈阳市棋盘山水库湿地保护地近30年生态系统演变规律,文章运用3S技术和景观格局指数,分析了保护地1986~2015年生态系统时空变化及景观格局演变特征。结果表明:1986~2015年间,由于人类活动的干扰,保护地景观破碎度和空间异质性不断增加,水库周边建设用地围绕水库向南部、北部不断扩张,不利于生态系统服务功能的保护和提升,但总体上看,2000~2015年人类活动强度低于1986~2000年,说明该时期生态保护工作取得一定成效。为提升保护地景观质量和生态系统服务功能,提出了保护地生态系统服务可持续管理对策。     

淮南市淮河水域水源保护与防治对策

根据淮河水环境的特点，对水域现状和污染源现状进行了分析，通过对水源保护功能的划分，提出了防治对策和综合整治措施。