Using classification trees to analyze the impact of exotic species on the ecological assessment of polder lakes in Flanders, Belgium

Polder lakes in Flanders are stagnant waters that were flooded by the sea in the past. Several of these systems are colonized by exotic species, but have hardly been studied until present. The aim of the present study was: (1) to assess the influence of exotic macrobenthic species on the outcome of the Multimetric Macroinvertebrate Index Flanders (MMIF) and (2) to use classification trees for evaluating to what extent physical-chemical characteristics affect the presence of exotic species.In total, 27 mollusc and 10 macro-crustacean species were present in the monitored lakes of which respectively five and four were exotic. The exclusion of the exotic species from the MMIF resulted in a significant decline of this ecological index (−0.03 ± 0.04; p = 0.00). This elimination often resulted into a lower ecological water quality class and more samples were classified into the bad and poor ecological water quality classes.Single-target classification trees for Gammarus tigrinus and Potamopyrgus antipodarum were constructed, relating environmental parameters and ecological status (MMIF) to the occurrence of both exotic invasive species. The major advantages of using single-target classification trees are the transparency of the rule sets and the possibility to use relatively small datasets. However, this classification technique only predicts a single-target attribute and the trees of the different species are often hard to integrate and use for water managers. As a solution, a multi-target approach was used in the present study. Exotic molluscs and crustaceans communities were modelled based on environmental parameters and the ecological status (MMIF) using multi-target classification trees. Multi-target classification trees can be used in management planning and investment decisions as they can lead to integrated decisions for the whole set of exotic species and avoid the construction of many models for each individual species. These trees provide general insights concerning the occurrence patterns of individual crustaceans and molluscs in an integrated way.     

Thermochemical stability: A comparison between experimental and predicted data

The first step to be performed during the development of a new industrial process should be the assessment of all hazards associated to the involved compounds. Particularly, the knowledge of all substances thermochemical parameters is a primary feature for such a hazard evaluation. CHETAH (CHEmical Thermodynamic And Hazard evaluation) is a prediction software suitable for calculating potential hazards of chemicals, mixtures or a single reaction that, using only the structure of the involved molecules and Benson's group contribution method, is able to calculate heats of formation, entropies, Gibbs free energies and reaction enthalpies. Because of its ability to predict the potential hazards of a material or mixture, CHETAH is part of the so-called “desktop methods” for early stage chemical safety analysis.In this work, CHETAH software has been used to compile a complete risk database reporting heats of decomposition and Energy Release Potential (ERP) for 342 common use chemicals. These compounds have been gathered into classes depending on their functional groups and similarities in their thermal behavior. Calculated decomposition enthalpies for each of the compounds have also been compared with experimental data obtained with either thermoanalytic or calorimetric techniques (Differential Scanning Calorimeter – DSC – and Accelerating Rate Calorimeter – ARC).     

西部大开发政策效应评价

经过15年的西部大开发,西部各个省份的综合发展水平怎样?西部大开发是否显著缩小西部与东部地区在综合发展水平和经济增长的差异?哪些政策起到了关键作用?是本文将要探讨的问题。研究方法主要是通过模型与数据的实证研究方法对西部大开发的政策效应进行评价。内容包括:一是通过构建包含了社会、经济、科教与文化、对外开放和资源与环境五大类25个分项指标的综合发展水平评价体系,使用从1997到2013年31个省市的指标数据,并计算出综合评价值来考察西部大开发政策对西部地区各个省份整体发展的影响。从评价值排名上来看发现只有重庆、陕西、四川和内蒙古综合发展水平排名提升明显,而新疆、宁夏和青海发展差距还在拉大,其他省份排名变化不大。从分类指标来看,西部地区整体上社会发展和资源环境与生态提升较为明显,说明中央对于公共服务的转移支付和"退耕还林还草"等保护环境与生态的政策起到了一定的成效。二是选取了交通基础设施建设、中央转移支付和税收优惠这三个主要政策作为计量模型的政策变量,分别考察西部大开发整体和分项政策对于综合发展水平和经济增长率的影响。通过系统GMM方法估计整体西部大开发整体政策效应,以2000年前后对比,政策实施对GDP增长率的提升并不显著,综合发展水平也没有收敛。而以2008年为时间节点,综合发展水平和经济增长速度都得到了显著提升。通过DID估计分项政策,结果表明基础设施投入和转移支付能够有效提升综合发展水平和经济增长速度,税收优惠提升相对较弱。本文建议:在交通基础设施投入方面继续对西部地区予以倾斜,特别是建设西部地区通往东中部地区的交通大通道;培育和完善西部地区的市场经济体系,政府较少干预企业投资决策;加强对于西部落后地区、偏远地区的公共产品投入,加强扶贫工作。     

Predicting categories of drugs used by suspected drug-impaired drivers using the Drug Evaluation and Classification Program tests

Objective: The purpose of this study was to statistically determine which combination(s) of drug-related signs and symptoms from the Drug Evaluation and Classification (DEC) protocol best predict the drug category used by the suspected drug-impaired driver.

Methods: Data from 1,512 completed DEC evaluations of suspected impaired drivers subsequently found to have ingested central nervous system (CNS) depressants, CNS stimulants, narcotic analgesics, and cannabis were analyzed using a multinomial logistic regression procedure. A set of evaluations completed on drug-free subjects was also included. The relative importance of clinical, behavioral, and observational measures in predicting drug categories responsible for impairment was also examined.

Results: Thirteen drug-related indicators were found to significantly contribute to the prediction of drug category, including being under the care of a doctor or dentist, condition of the eyes, condition of the eyelids, mean pulse rate, assessment of horizontal gaze nystagmus (HGN), convergence, performance on the One Leg Stand (OLS) Test, eyelid tremors, pupil size in darkness, reaction to light, presence of visible injection sites, systolic blood pressure, and muscle tone. Indicators related to the appearance and physiological response of the eye contributed the most to the prediction of drug category, followed closely by clinical indicators and performance on the psychophysical tests.

Conclusions: The findings from this study suggest that drug recognition experts (DREs) should be careful to review a set of key signs and symptoms when determining the category of drug used by suspected drug-impaired drivers. Drug use indicators related to the appearance and physiological response of the eye were found to contribute the most to the prediction of the drug category responsible for the impairment. These results could help form the basis of a core set of indicators that DREs could initially consult to form their opinion of drug influence. This in turn may enhance the validity, effectiveness, and efficiency of drug detection and identification by DREs and lead to a more effective and efficient DEC program, improved enforcement of drug-impaired driving, and greater acceptance of the DEC program by the courts.     

基于PCA-BP神经网络的多股铜导线 熔痕定量金相识别方法研究

为实现火灾现场中多股铜导线熔痕的自动识别,采用主成分分析(PCA)和反向传播(BP)神经网络算法对四种多股铜导线熔痕(一次短路熔痕、二次短路熔痕、过负荷熔痕和火烧熔痕)的金相组织进行了识别研究。利用Image-Pro Plus 6.0和Axio-Imaging软件获取每种熔痕30组17维金相组织参数数据,采用PCA对四种熔痕共120组数据降维,获得前6个主成分得分矩阵,建立具有6个输入层节点,10个隐层节点和4个输出节点的神经网络模式识别模型。随机抽取每种熔痕的20组样品的主成分得分矩阵作为训练集,将每种熔痕的剩余10组主成分得分为测试数据,输入最终训练完成的模型进行识别,其识别准确率达到92.5%。实验结果表明采用PCA+BP神经网络的算法,可以较好地实现多股铜导线熔痕识别,为火灾物证鉴定工作提供了有力的工具。     

Evaluation of approaches for terrestrial hazard classification

Hazard assessment is an essential element in the evaluation of the potential effects of chemical substances on the environment. To date, most work has focused on hazard assessment schemes for the aquatic environment, but in recent years, a number of proposals have been developed for other environmental compartments. Due to limited datasets, the suitability of the toxicity cut-off values in these schemes has not been fully determined and the practicalities associated with using these approaches have not been fully established. This study, which focused on the soil compartment, was performed to examine cut-off values proposed by two terrestrial hazard assessment schemes and establish the availability of data. Data on earthworms indicated that current proposals for toxicity cut-off values are appropriate. However, analysis of IUCLID (International Uniform ChemicaL Information Database) indicates that even for commonly used high production volume chemicals, insufficient data are available to enable classification. Whilst the necessary data may already be available for selected groups of substances (e.g. pesticides and veterinary medicines), a significant experimental testing programme would therefore be required before a terrestrial classification system could be applied widely. Such data may become available in the future as a result of initiatives such as REACH.     

生态环境空间分级管控策略研究

生态环境空间分级管控是为了确保各级尺度下的生态环境空间充分发挥其生态服务功能所采取的管理控制手段与途径,同时给城市生态环境空间的管控提供依据,在不同尺度下,生态环境空间需按照不同精细度的管控方法和不同的土地空间单位进行分级,生态环境空间分级管控主要包括:省域尺度生态环境空间的管控、市域尺度生态环境空间管控和在主城区尺度下生态环境空间管控。通过3种尺度不同管控方法和策略的有效衔接,从宏观、中观和微观3个层次保证了生态规划的完整性和连续性,使生态系统服务真正发挥其价值。     

A method for simplifying the analysis of traffic accidents injury severity on two-lane highways using Bayesian networks

Introduction

This study describes a method for reducing the number of variables frequently considered in modeling the severity of traffic accidents. The method's efficiency is assessed by constructing Bayesian networks (BN).

Method

It is based on a two stage selection process. Several variable selection algorithms, commonly used in data mining, are applied in order to select subsets of variables. BNs are built using the selected subsets and their performance is compared with the original BN (with all the variables) using five indicators. The BNs that improve the indicators’ values are further analyzed for identifying the most significant variables (accident type, age, atmospheric factors, gender, lighting, number of injured, and occupant involved). A new BN is built using these variables, where the results of the indicators indicate, in most of the cases, a statistically significant improvement with respect to the original BN.

Conclusions

It is possible to reduce the number of variables used to model traffic accidents injury severity through BNs without reducing the performance of the model.

Impact on Industry

The study provides the safety analysts a methodology that could be used to minimize the number of variables used in order to determine efficiently the injury severity of traffic accidents without reducing the performance of the model.     

《旅游资源分类、调查与评价》国家标准的更新审视与研究展望

旅游资源作为区域旅游发展独特的存在,是吸引旅游者进行旅游活动的关键要素,也是影响区域旅游经济发展的重要条件。总结国内旅游资源学术研究的发展趋势和研究主题,将其划分为萌芽起步期、发展成熟期和停滞衰退期三个研究阶段,研究主题则主要包括旅游资源概念界定、调查实践、评价与开发等;对2017年更新的《旅游资源分类、调查与评价》国家标准进行系统解读,重点分析其内容的全新变化并且深入剖析尚且存在的问题;对接学术研究与实践应用,重点从旅游资源概念、分类、调查和评价四个方面说明二者的互动关系和延伸讨论,明晰旅游资源研究与应用的重点内容和发展方向,以有益于理论与实践的相互影响和促进。     

荒漠化类型划分及其数量化评价体系

从我国荒漠化监测的实际需要出发，提出了包括气候区、外营力、土地利用类型、地表特征和荒漠化程度在内的多因素复叠式荒漠化分类体系；既可适用于小区域大比例尺的重点监测，又可适用于大区域小比例尺的宏观监测的各荒漠化类型数量化程度判定指标体系和判定方法；适用于各级行政区的荒漠化水平评价方法．