GM（1， 1）正弦模型修补气温监测缺失数据的探讨

目的建立预测精度较好的大气温度监测缺失数据修补的方法和模型。方法采用正弦函数对GM(1,1)标准模型进行修正,建立分段的GM(1,1)正弦修正模型对缺失数据进行修补。以万宁试验站某天监测的温度日记时值数据为试验数据,同时建立GM(1,1)标准模型、GM(1,1)时序修正模型和GM(1,1)正弦修正模型,对比分析各模型的修补误差,确立较好的修补模型。结果从模型的拟合效果分析,GM(1,1)标准模型和GM(1,1)正弦修正模型的拟合性最好,GM(1,1)时序修正模型的拟合性相对较差一些;从预测精度上分析,GM(1,1)标准模型和GM(1,1)时序修正模型预测修补效果差,平均相对误差分别达到22.54%和17.70%,而GM(1,1)正弦修正模型预测修补的平均误差仅为3.14%,得到了较大的改进,预测效果好。结论正弦修正模型能很好地修补缺失数据,其修补效果比时序修正模型和标准模型都要好。     

巢湖表层沉积物中磷赋存形态的时空变化

以巢湖表层沉积物为对象,采用欧洲标准测试委员会框架下发展的SMT分离方法分析总磷（total phosphorus,TP）、有机磷（organic phosphorus,OP）、无机磷（inorganic phosphorus,IP）、铁铝磷（NaOH-P）、钙磷（HCl-P）等磷形态的含量,利用ArcGIS 9.2和地统计学软件GS＋5.3进行空间数据和插值处理,探讨了巢湖表层沉积物中磷的形态分布特征及来源.结果表明：①沉积物中TN、TP和有机质含量的季节变化较小,在空间上均表现出西半湖含量高于东半湖的分布特点;C/N比率在21.35～28.19之间（平均值为24.94）,表明巢湖的入湖污染物主要以面源污染为主.②巢湖表层沉积物中TP含量的变化范围为528.90～1 385.71 mg.kg-1,IP为主要赋存形态（占TP的质量分数为55.78%～79.86%）.③巢湖表层沉积物中,OP含量为169.05～841.24 mg.kg-1,东、西半湖OP含量分别为376.02 mg.kg-1和406.53 mg.kg-1（占TP的质量分数为47.49%和36.28%）;NaOH-P含量为33.77～411.37 mg.kg-1,东、西半湖含量分别为108.37 mg.kg-1和276.30 mg.kg-1（占IP的质量分数为21.73%和33.12%）;HCl-P含量为194.95～477.45 mg.kg-1,东、西半湖HCl-P含量分别为321.71 mg.kg-1和338.08mg.kg-1（占IP的质量分数为64.50%和40.53%）,是IP的主要组成部分.④冬春季节OP含量高于夏秋季节,而夏秋季节HCl-P和NaOH-P含量高于冬春季节.     

流域生态补偿标准的确定——以渭干河流域为例

生态补偿标准的确定是流域生态补偿机制构建的关键问题之一。文章构建了流域生态补偿标准的测算内容与流程,并以渭干河流域为例,计算了流域上下游生态损益、 居民支付意愿和综合成本,分别作为补偿的最高、 最低和参考标准。结果表明:2007年上游应获得的最高补偿标准为24.83×10⁸元,最低标准为2 443.46×10⁴元,参考标准为6.7×10⁸元。下游各县作为受益者,应支付的补偿额为:库车为818.51×10⁴~28 096.3×10⁴元,补偿参考标准19 927.61×10⁴元;沙雅466.7×10⁴~64 179.1×10⁴元,补偿参考标准17 204.17×10⁴元;新和341.17×10⁴~155 988.7×10⁴元,补偿参考标准为29 998.71×10⁴元。不同补偿标准对流域农牧民福祉产生较大影响,按照参考标准的8.67%进行补偿,就可使上游居民尤其是水源涵养区的农牧民收入水平可有较大程度的提高,达到流域的平均收入水平。在讨论部分对流域生态补偿标准测算中面临的难题进行了分析。     

二噁英类化合物检测标准及技术研究进展

二噁英类化合物是斯德哥尔摩公约中的首批持久性环境污染物之一,对人类社会有巨大的危害性。对二噁英类化合物进行监控和防治一直是各国环境政策研究的重点任务,二噁英类化合物的检测方法也是国内外科学家门研究的热点。通过查阅大量国内外近年关于二噁英类化合物文献及一些国家和国际组织制定的二噁英类化合物检测标准,归纳总结了近年来二噁英类化合物的化学检测法和生物分析方法的前处理技术和检测技术的研究进展,比较了不同方法的特点及适用范围,为建立灵敏度更高、实用性更强的检测方法提供依据。为我国开展二噁英类化合物的研究和制定相关标准提供参考,以进一步完善监控和防治措施。     

催化氧化法处理循环水排污水

用催化氧化法处理循环水排污水,探索了催化氧化反应的规律,得到了较佳的反应条件。实验结果表明,采用催化氧化法处理循环水排污水可大幅降低废水的COD,使处理后污水的COD<60 mg/L,满足达标排放的水质要求。     

我国VOCs污染治理监管存在的问题及对策

VOCs是细颗粒物(PM_2.5)和臭氧(O3)形成的重要前体物,通过梳理我国VOCs治理相关的法律、政策、标准,并结合重点区域的调研情况,分析了我国VOCs治理监管存在的法律法规与标准体系不健全、执法监管能力建设不足、企业全过程精细化管控不到位等问题,提出应进一步健全法律法规与标准体系,建立智能监管技术与人工智能应用体系,加强全过程精细化管控等对策建议。     

Determination of the performance limits of flame arresters at increased oxygen concentrations

This investigation shows how an increased oxygen concentration influences the performance limits of crimped ribbon deflagration flame arresters at elevated pressures. An evaluation of the maximum experimental safe gap (MESG) as reliable criterion for describing the performance limits under non-atmospheric conditions is given. Measurements of MESGs and flame arrester performance tests were performed. Various fuel/oxygen/air mixtures containing ethylene and propane were used as testing gases. Former studies on the pressure dependence and the influence of oxygen on the MESG were initially confirmed. Furthermore, performance tests using a commercial deflagration flame arrester revealed that such a flame arrester may prevent flame transmission also at non-atmospheric conditions within a limited range. For various oxygen concentrations the performance limits were reached at the same MESG. Hence, it can be assumed that a flame arrester possesses a device- and fuel-specific maximum experimental safe gap for a specific gas mixture in different concentrations and at different pressures. This performance-related maximum safe gap can be used as a parameter for estimating and describing the performance limits of a flame arrester. It offers an attempt to simplify the testing and qualification of deflagration flame arresters for non-atmospheric conditions.     

Reality and risk of contact-type head injuries related to bicycle-mounted child seats

Objective

The authors have treated numerous children who have been injured by falling from bicycle-mounted child seats. Despite the greatly increased use of such seats, the understanding of their risk and the importance of helmet use remains alarmingly poor. The objective of this study was to confirm the risk of bicycle-mounted child seats and to evaluate the efficacy of helmets, seat belts, and back seat height in terms of preventing or mitigating contact-type head impacts that occur in falls from bicycle-mounted child seats.

Materials and methods

Biometrical dummy tests were performed to examine contact-type head injuries in falls from stationary bicycles. A bicycle with an anthropometric test dummy placed in a bicycle-mounted child seat was tipped over. Each test was repeated three times and three-dimensional acceleration was measured using accelerometer. Head Injury Criteria (HIC) were calculated and the respective influences of a helmet, a seat belt, and increased height of the back of the seat on such impacts were evaluated.

Results

Only helmets unequivocally lowered maximal acceleration and/or HIC values with statistical significance. The seat belt lowered HIC values as long as it was used with the high-back seat. Only when the dummy wore a helmet sitting in a high-back seat did the HIC show less than the threshold of 570 for three-year-old children. The HIC showed the lowest score of 161.5 when the dummy wore both a helmet and a seat belt sitting in a high-back seat.

Conclusions

Riders in bicycle-mounted child seats definitely have higher risks of contact-type head injuries. In transporting a child on a bicycle-mounted child seat, parents must use both a child-bicycle helmet and a high-back child seat at least; a seat belt is highly recommended as long as it is used with the other safety devices.

Impact on Industry

The bicycle-mounted child seat should have a high enough back and an appropriate seat belt to protect the head of the child from a contact-type injury.     

中、美、英涂装作业安全标准比对研究

简要介绍了中、美、英涂装作业安全标准的体系和现状。从标准体系科学性、标准制、修订及时性、标准执行情况三个方面,对中、美、英三国的涂装作业安全标准进行了比对分析。结果表明我国标准体系较为科学、系统,但方法标准所占比例太小,人员因素的相关标准较为缺乏,标准分类应随涂装技术的发展不断细化;我国标准平均修订周期远大于美、英类似标准;我国标准实施时缺乏配套措施,从企业到政府均缺乏执行力,而国外涂装作业安全标准与法律、技术法规、合格评定结合紧密,执行有力。最后针对以上结论提出了相应的建议。笔者的研究对完善我国涂装作业安全标准体系,强化标准执行配套措施建设,提高涂装产品的技术水平和国际市场竞争力具有一定的参考意义。     

中国自然保护区类型划分标准的研究

在总结国内外有关自然保护区类型划分研究进展的基础上,根据我国自然保护区建设和管理的实际状况,提出我国自然保护区类型划分的基本原则。并据此原则,研究制定了我国自然保护区类型划分的标准。该标准将中国自然保护区定义和划分为3个类别9个类型。即：1．自然生态系统类自然保护区,包括森林、草原与草甸、荒漠、内陆湿地和水域、海洋与海岸等5个生态系统类型;2。野生生物类自然保护区,包括野生动物和野生植物两个类型;3．自然遗迹类自然保护区,包括地质遗迹和古生物遗迹两个类型。同时,还对其分类体系结构、自然保护区范畴以及本标准的可行性等有关问题作了详细的阐述和讨论。