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1.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
2.
Fiji is expected to come under increasing pressure and risk from various threats resulting from climate change and sea-level
rise (SLR). Fiji consists of 332 islands and thus has a predominant and large coastline. Viti Levu is the largest and most
important of the islands, harboring Fiji’s capital city and most of the major towns concentrated around its coast. The objectives
of this study were to evaluate the extent of possible sea-level rise using GIS, and to identify high-risk locations. Potential
sea level rise was shown graphically as an output to determine where inundation or flooding would take place. This analysis
allowed important areas facing risk to be highlighted for future action. Flooding/inundation can be classified into two kinds:
‘permanent inundation’, which is the result of sea-level rise with tide; and ‘temporary flooding’, also including occasional
storm surge events. The inundated area was displayed under different projections and quantified. The results produced output
maps showing the distribution of inundation/flooding around the island of Viti Levu as well as the extent of flooding. Six
scenarios for sea-level rise were used (0.09, 0.18, 0.48, 0.50, 0.59, 0.88 m). Six scenarios for storm surge were used with
return intervals of 1, 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 years. High risk and priority locations are identified as Fiji’s capital Suva, the
major tourist center and arrival port of Nadi, and Fiji’s second city Lautoka. Future action, adaptation and response strategies
in these identified locations must occur to reduce risk from climate change. 相似文献
3.
Riebsame WE 《Disasters》1985,9(4):295-300
Three recent cases of climate extremes are studied to identify human impacts and response strategies and to identify common characteristics that may help illuminate the nature of climate hazards. The 1980 heat wave in the central United States, 1981 cold wave in Boston, Massachusetts, and recent flooding and lake level rise in northern Utah, illustrate several important aspects of climate hazards that separate them from the more traditional set of catastrophic events (e.g. tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes) usually dealt with by hazards research and management. Among those characteristics are an emphasis on health impacts rather than physical damage, accumulative effects rather than short shocks, a tendency for impacts to accrue to certain socio-economic classes, and relatively slow onset. The management and research implications of these hazard characteristics are explored. 相似文献
4.
本文利用30年的气候资料分析了乌鲁木齐冬季光气候与大气混浊度之间的关系,指出了大气混浊度的增加是造成辐射总照度下降的主要原因. 相似文献
5.
气候变化与实施清洁发展机制的展望 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
本文第一部分介绍了《气候变化框架公约》的达成与主要内容,以及在柏林、日内瓦、京都与布宜诺斯艾利斯先后召开的4 次缔约方会议的结果; 第二部分介绍了清洁发展机制(CDM) 同《京都议定书》的其他灵活机制的异同,以及CDM 的特点、方法学与技术问题; 第三部分分析了CDM 的前景、影响其成功实施的因素、它可能提供的潜在机遇以及实施中的需求与供给;最后就CDM 的实施作了展望。 相似文献
6.
Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives
To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches. 相似文献
7.
This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific
Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific Island
region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that
are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy
technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular, through
transfer of technology and via joint implementation.
It is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries
and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific Island environments. It
is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute
very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions. 相似文献
8.
This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. 相似文献
9.
北京地区15000年以来环境变迁中灾害性气候突变事件的讨论 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
通过高分辨率孢粉分析及烧失量、炭屑实验结果的统计分析,结合14C、古地磁等,对北京房山东甘池15000a以来植被变化和环境变迁进行了较为深入的研究,特别强调气候变化的灾害性突变事件。初步得知约在14100~14000aB.P.前后曾出现与哥得堡反转相对应的事件,在10000aB.P.左右出现类似与新仙女木事件相对应的事件,在大约5770aB.P.和4560aB.P.左右及2850~2650aB.P.出现了大暖期的突然降温事件。 相似文献
10.
气候变化与自然灾害 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
气候变化与自然灾害是当今科学研究的两大热点,两者之间在一定程度上具有相关性,但目前要确切地定量计算气候变化对自然灾害的强度和出现频率的影响还很困难。本文在分析气候变化与自然灾害关系的基础上,研究了气候变化对我国自然灾害的影响。研究结果显示:1.在千年尺度上,长江流域的大旱和气候变冷成正相关,而长江流域的大涝以及黄河流域的大旱和大涝与气候冷暖过渡期成正相关;2.在百年尽度上,近1042年来,共出现281次全国性大旱和大涝,平均每百年出现27次,在地域分布上以南涝北旱为主;3.就百年至千年尺度的气候变化对自然灾害的影响而言,气候冷冷组合期(1301~1900)易发生全国性大涝,而冷暖组合期(950~1300年,1901~1991年)易发生全国性大旱。总的来说,冷冷组合期的大旱大涝发生频率明显大于暖期,但不同地区有差异;4.在其它影响方面,台风、地震与海啸灾害在冷暖组合期(20世纪)均有比冷冷组合期(14和19世纪)多的趋势。因此,气候变暖将使防灾任务更加艰巨。 相似文献