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101.
Vulnerability assessment and adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise on the Kingdom of Bahrain 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
S. Al-Jeneid M. Bahnassy S. Nasr M. El Raey 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(1):87-104
This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of sea level rise (SLR) at the global and regional scale as a result of climate
change (CC) on the coastal areas of the Kingdom of Bahrain’s islands (36 Islands). The standard Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines was modified as appropriate for the situation of the study area. Geographic Information Systems
(GIS) coupled with Remote Sensing (RS) were used as the main techniques of collecting, analyzing, modeling simulating and
disseminating information to build SLR scenarios in a geographically referenced context. Also, these tools were used to assess
vulnerability and risk of the coastal area of the islands with the expectation that coastal planner and government authorities
will profit from integrating these knowledge into a broad based environmental decision making. Three SLR scenarios: low, moderate
and high were developed to examine the impacts from SLR on all islands. The low SLR scenario (Optimistic) assumes a 0.5-m
rise above current sea level, the moderate scenario (Intermediate) assumes a one meter rise, and the high scenario (Pessimistic)
assumes a 1.5 m rise in sea level. Two more SLR scenarios were assumed to perform risk analysis, a 2 and 5 meter rise above
current sea level. The simulation of SLR are quite straightforward, emphasizing on the uses of both of the data that are incorporated
from the satellite images and the created Digital Elevation Model (DEM) to estimate SLR scenarios that are adapted in the
study. These data were used to predict consequences of the possibility of the rise in sea level at different scenarios which
may alter the landuse and patterns of human communities. Results indicate that low-lying coastal areas of Bahrain islands
are at risk from the effects of any SLR resulting from CC. These islands are vulnerable under different SLR Scenarios. More
than 17% of the country total area may be inundated under 1.5 m SLR in 2100. The total area that might be lost under different
sea level scenarios will vary from more than 77 km2 if SLR reaches 0.5 m, to about 100 km2 under 1.0 m SLR and may reach 124 km2 under 1.5 m SLR scenario. The total inundated areas due to risk scenarios will reach 133 km2, if the SLR rises to 2.0 m, and it is estimated to be more than (22%) of the main island total area. Under the second scenario,
if the SLR reaches 5.0 m, the main islands will lose approximately half of its area (47%) equal to 280 km2. Hawar islands group will lose about (30%) of its total area under 2.0 m SLR, which is about 15.5 km2.A SLR adaptation policy framework (APF) and adaptation policy initiatives (APIs) are suggested for planners to build upon
for reducing the likely effects of SLR in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The framework is composed of four steps namely, acquisition
of information, planning and design, implementation and monitoring and evaluation. A general policy framework for a national
response to SLR is suggested. Additionally, a range of policy adaptation options/initiatives to sustain coastal developments
under the likely effects of SLR are recommended. 相似文献
102.
Kenneth T. Gillingham Steven J. Smith Ronald D. Sands 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(7):675-701
In the coming century, modern bioenergy crops have the potential to play a crucial role in the global energy mix, especially
under policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions as proposed by many in the international community. Previous studies have
not fully addressed many of the dynamic interactions and effects of a policy-induced expansion of bioenergy crop production,
particularly on crop yields and human food demand. This study combines an updated agriculture and land use (AgLU) model with
a well-developed energy-economic model to provide an analysis of the effects of bioenergy crops on energy, agricultural and
land use systems. The results indicate that carbon dioxide mitigation policies can stimulate a large production of bioenergy
crops, dependent on the level of the policy. This production of bioenergy crops can lead to several impacts on the agriculture
and land use system: decreases in forestland and unmanaged land, decreases in the average yield of food crops, increases in
the prices of food crops, and decreases in the level of human demand of calories.
相似文献
Steven J. Smith (Corresponding author)Email: |
103.
Impacts of climate change and CO2 increase on agricultural production and adaptation options for Southern Québec, Canada 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Jean-Phillipe Brassard Bhawan Singh 《Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change》2008,13(3):241-265
This study involves the assessment of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas climate change and changing ambient carbon dioxide
(CO2) levels on crop yields in Quebec, Canada. The methodology involves coupling the transient diagnostics of two Atmosphere-Ocean
General Circulation Models, namely the Canadian CGCM1 and the British HadCM3, to the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology
Transfer (DSSAT) 3.5 crop models to simulate current (1961–1990) and future (2040–2069) crop yields and changes. This is done
for four different crop species, namely spring wheat, maize, soybean, and potato, and for seven agricultural regions of Southern
Quebec. The results of this study focus on the main causative factors influencing crop yields, namely the direct CO2 fertilization effect, the influence of the increase in growing season temperature, including optimal thermal conditions and
acceleration in crop maturation, soil moisture availability, as influenced by precipitation and evapotranspiration, and nitrogen
uptake by crops. Our results show that crop yield changes may vary according to climate scenario, crop species, and agricultural
region. Consistent with other similar research, it would seem that these multiple causative factors very often seem to cancel
each other out and dilute the impacts of climate change on crop yields. 相似文献
104.
人类活动作用于土地资源,使LUCC(土地利用/土地覆被变化)在全球环境变化过程中起主导作用,随着国际LUCC研究计划的进展,各国依据本国的实际情况开展研究。对西安市以往五年(2000-2004年)的土地利用基础数据开展调查统计分析,建立灰色系统动态GM(1,1)模型,预测2005—2010年西安市土地利用结构变化状况,尝试计算西安市土地生态系统服务价值损失(简称生态损失),用一种直观经济指标-货币来反映这种生态损失。预测2010年西安市生态损失为331、84×10^6元。 相似文献
105.
通过在二类标准适用区进行不同高度的噪声监测试验,利用获得的监测数据进行统计分析,找出不同高度噪声Leq小时值的统计特征,从而确定二类功能区噪声垂直变化规律。 相似文献
106.
《Environmental Communication: A Journal of Nature and Culture》2013,7(8):1024-1040
ABSTRACTWhat people believe about the beliefs of other people – second-order beliefs – has been acknowledged as a key factor that shapes public support for international climate policy. However, very little is known about their origins. Based on data from an online survey (n?=?935), we analyzed how German citizens assess the climate change awareness in their own nation as compared to those of the US and China. Even if the public climate change awareness in the US and China factually differs, we found that German citizens equivalently rate both nations similar and much lower than their own, a finding which can be explained with social identity processes and “in-group”/“out-group” biases. Hierarchical regression analyses demonstrate that the attention individuals pay towards television and social media predict second-order beliefs on climate change awareness positively, while attention to print media is a negative predictor. 相似文献
107.
ABSTRACTContinuously reducing the CO2 intensity of GDP is the core strategy for developing countries to realize the dual targets of economic growth and CO2 emissions reduction. The measures are twofold: one is to strengthen energy saving and decrease energy intensity of GDP and the other is to promote energy structural decarbonization and reduce CO2 intensity of energy consumption. In order to control global temperature rise no more than 2°C, the decrease in CO2 intensity of GDP needs surpass 4% before 2030, but it could be merely about 2% based on the current trend. Therefore, all countries ought to speed up the low-carbon transition in energy and economy. As for China, keeping a continuous decline in CO2 intensity of GDP of 4%–5% will ensure the realization of the NDC objectives, and also promotes the early peaking of CO2 emissions before 2030. China will play a positive leading role in realizing a win-win low-carbon development coordinating sustainable development and climate change mitigation. 相似文献
108.
The Gallocanta Basin represents an environment highly sensitive to climate change. Over the past 60 years, the Laguna de Gallocanta, an ephemeral lake situated in the closed Gallocanta basin, experienced a sequence of wet and dry phases. The lake and its surrounding wetlands are one of only a few bird sanctuaries left in NE-Spain for grey cranes on their annual migration from Scandinavia to northern Africa. Understanding the impact of climate change on basin hydrology is therefore of utmost importance for the appropriate management of the bird sanctuary. Changes in lake level are only weakly linked to annual rainfall, with reaction times between hours and months after rainfall. Both the total amount of rainfall over the reaction period, as well as individual extreme events, affect lake level. In this study the characteristics and frequencies of daily, event, monthly and bi-monthly rainfall over the past 60 years were analysed. The results revealed a clear link between increased frequencies of high magnitude rainfall and phases of water filling in the Laguna de Gallocanta. In the middle of the 20th century, the absolute amount of rainfall appears to have been more important for lake level, while more recently the frequency of high magnitude rainfall has emerged as the dominant variable. 相似文献
109.
Grant D. Jacobsen 《Journal of Environmental Economics and Management》2011,61(1):67-78
This paper examines the relationship between climate change awareness and household behavior by testing whether Al Gore's documentary An Inconvenient Truth caused an increase in the purchase of voluntary carbon offsets. I find that in the two months following the film's release, zip codes within a 10-mile radius of a zip code where the film was shown experienced a 50 percent relative increase in the purchase of voluntary carbon offsets. During other times, offset purchasing patterns for zip codes inside the 10-mile radius were similar to the patterns of zip codes outside the 10-mile radius. There is, however, little evidence that individuals who purchased an offset due to the film purchased them again a year later. 相似文献
110.
Jonathan E. Hughes 《Journal of Environmental Economics and Management》2011,62(2):123-139
This paper provides evidence of market power in the transportation of ethanol used in reformulated gasoline and alternative transportation fuels. I estimate a reduced form model for railroad route-level prices. My identification strategy instruments for railroad entry, controls for selection and explicitly models capacity constraints. A detailed understanding of this industry is important because U.S. environmental policies seek to substantially expand ethanol use. Evidence of market power may alter the types of policies pursued by lawmakers. I find that ethanol shipment prices are lower for more competitive routes. I also find evidence that railroads price discriminate based on environmental regulation at route destinations. Monopolist prices for shipments to carbon monoxide non-attainment areas are 3% higher than shipments to other destinations. This price premium falls sharply with increased competition. This suggests a perverse result where environmental regulation increases the price of a clean input. 相似文献