‘We cannot be at the forefront,changing society’: exploring how Swedish property developers respond to climate change in urban planning

It is increasingly expected that private actors play the role as entrepreneurs and front-runners in implementing climate measures, whereas empirical studies of the position, role and engagement of private actors are scarce. Situated in the context of urban planning, a critical arena for triggering climate transitions, the aim of this paper is to explore how Swedish property developers respond to climate change. Qualitative analyses of corporate policy documents and semi-structured interviews with property developers reveal a vast divergence between the written policies, where leadership ambitions are high, and how the practice of property development is discussed in interviews. In the latter, there is little evidence of property developers pursuing a forward-looking or cutting-edge climate change agenda. Instead, they are critical of increased public regulation for climate-oriented measures. Explanations both confirm previous studies, highlighting lack of perceived customer demand, uncertainty of financial returns and limited innovations, and add new elements of place-dependency suggesting that innovative and front-runner practices can only be realized in the larger urban areas. Municipalities seeking to improve their climate-oriented profile in urban planning by involving private property developers need to develop strategies to maneuver the variance in responses to increase the effectiveness of implementation.     

The ambiguity of federalism in climate policy-making: how the political system in Austria hinders mitigation and facilitates adaptation

Although the impacts of federalism on environmental policy-making are still contested, many policy analysts emphasise its advantages in climate policy-making. This applies to the mitigation of climate change, in particular when federal governments (as in the U.S.) are inactive. More recently, federalism is also expected to empower sub-national actors in adapting to local impacts of climate change. The present paper analyses the role federalism in Austria played in greening the decentralised building sector (relevant for mitigation) on the one hand, and in improving regional flood risk management (relevant for adaptation) on the other. In line with the so-called matching school of the environmental federalism research strand we conclude that Austrian federalism proved to be more appropriate for regional flood protection than for mitigating climate change. We highlight that it is not federalism per se but federalism embedded in various contextual factors that shape environmental policy-making. Among these factors are the spatial scale of an environmental problem, the nitty-gritty of polity systems, and national politics (such as federal positions on climate change mitigation).     

西双版纳生物多样性廊道区气候变化脆弱性评价研究

以IPCC（政府间气候变化专业委员会）对生态系统气候脆弱性定义为理论基础,以西双版纳勐腊一尚勇保护区廊道为研究区域,通过建立生态系统气候脆弱性评价指标体系,对廊道从20世纪70年代到现在和未来变化做了评估,初步识别出不同历史时期研究区的生态系统对气候变化的脆弱性特征,并提出应对气候变化的对策建议。     

Assessing the susceptibility of societies to droughts: a political science perspective

In this article we develop a concept for the assessment of state’s susceptibility to drought based on a political science perspective. Different sources of capacities and sensitivities need to be taken into account to assess the overall susceptibility of states as political systems. We argue that the overall susceptibility of a society depends on an interplay of state capacity and readiness as main elements of political susceptibility, wealth and economic sensitivity as elements of economic susceptibility and the degree of social integration. To transform the conceptual model into a susceptibility assessment we developed an inference model in order to generate quantitative indices. For this purpose we apply fuzzy set theory using data from our case study regions, namely Andhra Pradesh (India), the Volga region (Russia) and (Southern) Portugal. The resulting computed trends for Portugal suggest that the society will be able to deal even with severe natural conditions due to existing political, economic, and social conditions. The assessment results for the Indian and Russian case study regions, in contrast, give reason for precaution since the occurrence of drought-induced crisis events seems much more likely in the light of more crucial, overall conditions, namely lower degrees of state capacity and readiness as well as, in the case of India, a high economic susceptibility. However, further improvements are possible given the improved availability of data and the integration of more qualitative information. Additionally, the expansion to further case study regions could help validate the overall concept.     

Effects of climate change on moose populations: Exploring the response horizon through biometric and systems models

Interest in the response of moose to climate change has increased because of the potential role they play in the conservation of woodland caribou, and threatened loss to recreational and economic opportunities. The objective of this study is to develop a plausible, parsimonious, systems-level model of moose population dynamics that will be useful in exploring the response of moose populations to climate projections. The study begins with a statistical model of moose carrying capacity, which is then integrated into a systems-level model that predicts moose density based on explicit causal factors. Scenario analysis was conducted using a variety of assumptions concerning biotic and abiotic interactions, and under the A2 climate scenario all model scenarios predict a decline of moose density at the southern limits of the Ontario distribution and an increase at the northern extents. Predicted declines are a result of lower carrying capacity and higher heat stress, parasite loads and wolf predation. Given the sensitivity of the model to density-dependent factors, the indirect effect of parasites on decreased recruitment may have greater impact on moose than the direct effect of increased death rate. Results indicate that conservation planning for woodland caribou populations should account for possible increases in moose and wolf populations.     

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973-2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects.     

A multi-approach strategy in climate attribution studies: Is it possible to apply a robustness framework?

Attribution studies investigate the causes of recent global warming. For a few decades the scientific community generally adopted dynamical models – the so-called Global Climate Models (GCMs) – for such an investigation. These models show the essential role of anthropogenic forcings in driving the temperature behaviour of the last half century. In the last period even other (data-driven) methodological approaches were adopted for attribution studies. This allows the scientific community to compare the results coming from these different approaches and to possibly increase their robustness. For such a purpose, the paper explores the possibility of applying a robustness framework, so far used only in the case of multi-model GCM ensembles, to a strategy including models from different methodological orientations, assessing such an application especially in the light of the independence issue.     

Evaluating the sustainability of diets–combining environmental and nutritional aspects

This study examined two methods for jointly considering the environmental impact and nutritional quality of diets, which is necessary when designing policy instruments promoting sustainable food systems. Both methods included energy content and 18 macro- and micronutrients in the diet, the climate impact, land use and biodiversity damage potential. In Method 1, the content of different nutrients in the diet was normalised based on recommended intake or upper levels for average daily intake and presented together with the environmental impacts, which were normalised according to estimated sustainable levels. In Method 2, the nutritional quality of different diets was considered by calculating their nutrient density score, and the environmental impact was then expressed per nutrient density score. Three diets were assessed; a diet corresponding to Nordic recommendations, the current average Swedish diet and a lifestyle Low Carbohydrate-High Fat (LCHF) diet. Method 1 clearly showed that the climate impact was far beyond the sustainable level for all diets, while land use was within the sustainability limit for the recommended diet, but not the other two. Comparisons based on nutrient density scores depended on the score used, but the current and LCHF diets had more impact than the recommended diet (less livestock products) for all but one score. Over- and under-consumption of nutrients were clearly shown by Method 1 but not possible to distinguish with Method 2, as normalisation was not possible, making it difficult to evaluate the absolute scale of the impacts when nutrient density scores were used. For quantitative information on the environmental and nutritional impacts of diets as support in decision-making processes, it is important that data presentation is transparent. There is limited value in reducing results to a low number of indicators that are easy to read, but difficult to interpret, e.g. nutrient density score. Method 1 allows combined assessment of diets regarding environmental impact and nutritional intake and could be useful in dietary planning and in development of dietary recommendations and other policy instruments to achieve more sustainable food systems.     

Changes in mineral soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990–2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation

Three soil carbon models (RothC, CANDY and the Model of Humus Balance) were used to estimate the impacts of climate change on agricultural mineral soil carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine using detailed spatial data on land-use, future land-use, cropping patterns, agricultural management, climate and soil type. Scenarios of climate were derived from the Hadley Centre climate Version 3 (HadCM3) model; future yields were determined using the Soil–Climate–Yield model, and land use was determined from regional agricultural and economic data and a model of agricultural economics. The models suggest that optimal management, which entails the replacement of row crops with other crops, and the use of extra years of grass in the rotation could reduce Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine by 30–44% compared to the business-as-usual management. The environmentally sustainable management scenario (SUS), though applied for a limited area within the total region, suggests that much of this optimisation could be realised without damaging profitability for farmers.