基于GIS的煤矿区景观格局时空变化分析——以呼伦贝尔市某煤矿为例

在GIS平台和Fragstats 4．1软件的支持下,本文以1989年和1999年的TM影像,2012年的资源三号卫星影像为数据源,利用景观／斑块类型面积、斑块所占景观面积的比例、斑块密度、最大斑块指数、总边缘长度、边缘密度、香农多样性指数、蔓延度指数等景观特征指标,对呼伦贝尔市某煤矿区的景观特征动态变化进行分析。结果显示：该煤矿区20多年来景观格局有了很大变化,景观类型由1989年的水域、草地、未利用地为主导变为2012年以未利用地、草地、耕地为主导,其中因人类工业活动和人工复垦导致工矿景观、道路景观、林地景观和耕地景观面积增加,而原来占绝对优势的水域景观面积则大幅减小。     

基于大型乙烯成套装置工艺安全的变更管理

介绍了工艺安全变更管理的概念及相关标准法规,结合国内变更管理的现状,提出了大型乙烯成套装置工艺安全变更管理建议。     

天津地区相对海平面变化最新进展及发展趋势分析

相对海平面上升是一个缓慢、渐进过程,但长期的积累可以使得上升幅度相当可观,从而加剧风暴潮、海岸侵蚀、海水入侵和咸潮等灾害致灾程度。基于验潮位监测和卫星观测结果显示,全球海平面在20世纪中期平均上升1.5~2.0 mm/a,而近30年中国沿海海平面上升速率为2.6~2.7 mm/a,高于全球平均值。渤海湾天津地区由于地面沉降显著,而导致相对海平面大幅度上升。滨海地区地面沉降速率在未来50至100年内可能会稳定在1.0~2.0 cm/a范围,结合目前海平面上升速率2.7 mm/a,总的相对海平面上升速率处于12.7~22.7 mm/a范围。由此估计,到2050年,天津地区相对海平面将比2012年高出48.3~86.3 cm,而到2100年,将比2012年高出111.8~199.8 cm。     

昆明市主城区近年空气质量变化趋势与成因分析

根据昆明市2004-2013年空气自动站监测数据,对昆明市空气质量,污染物年际变化、季节变化、空间变化特征进行了研究。分析了影响昆明市空气质量的地理气象因素、污染排放因素、污染物远程输送因素。提出了相应的防治对策和建议。     

不同季节气象条件对北京城区高黑碳浓度变化的影响

利用2013年至2015年北京城区黑碳气溶胶(下文统称为"BC")和PM2.5观测资料,结合地面气象观测资料、ECMWF边界层高度再分析资料和FNL/NCEP不同高度风速再分析资料,讨论了BC质量浓度及其在PM_(2.5)质量浓度中所占比例(下文统称"黑碳占比")的季节、月、日变化特征,并通过计算北京城区BC浓度与不同高度风速的相关矢量,分析了气象条件和外来输送对北京城区BC浓度变化的影响.结果发现:研究时段内北京城区BC浓度平均值为(4.77±4.49)μg·m~(-3);黑碳占比为8.23%±5.47%.BC浓度和黑碳占比在春、夏季低,秋、冬季高,其日变化特征在4个季节均为"白天低夜间高"的单峰型特征.随着PM_(2.5)浓度的升高,BC浓度增大,黑碳占比减小.当北京地区风向为东北、东北偏东、东南和西南偏西(主风向)时,BC浓度与风速和边界层高度均呈反向变化,即随风速和边界层高度的增大而减小.另外不同季节BC浓度随风速变化的临界值及其变化速率不同.冬季高BC浓度时段,北京城区BC浓度在低层大气的关键影响区分别位于河北南部与山东交界地区以及河北西北部与山西内蒙交界地区;高空关键影响区主要位于北京以西的河北西部、山西北部和内蒙古地区.     

达里诺尔湖近2400年以来Hg元素含量变化及环境意义

汞（Hg）元素作为一种全球性循环元素,对环境的影响正逐渐成为人们关注的焦点之一.为揭示寒旱区达里诺尔湖沉积物的Hg污染历史及人类活动对湖泊沉积物中Hg污染的影响,通过采集湖泊沉积物岩芯（编号DL1）,在建立DL1岩芯沉积地层年代框架的基础上,结合沉积物粒度特征、总有机质（TOC）含量等指标参数的变化,对DL1岩芯记录的地质历史上的Hg含量变化特征及环境意义进行了综合分析.结果显示,沉积物记录的Hg元素污染具有明显的阶段性变化特征：2400~1400 cal.a BP,Hg含量呈逐渐降低趋势,期间降水量呈逐步减少趋势,区域气候显著干旱;1400~200 cal.a BP,Hg含量相对稳定,呈小幅度波动变化,对应了区域气候的干-湿交替;近200 cal.a BP以来,Hg含量明显增加,这可能是受人类活动影响的结果.整体上,地质历史上DL1沉积物中Hg含量变化受气候干冷-暖湿交替周期性变化影响较大.而近200 cal.a BP来Hg与TOC等指标间显著正相关,则显示了沉积物中有机质可能吸附了大量的Hg元素,使其呈顶端富集趋势,进而对湖泊水生态环境造成影响.     

事故车辆影响下的城市三车道道路交通流仿真

为探究事故车辆对城市三车道道路交通影响机制,首先,分析考虑事故车辆的城市三车道道路交通流特征;然后,构建左车道优先且考虑主动抢道和被动抢道行为的元胞自动机交通流模型;最后;研究事故持续时间td变化时事故车辆分别位于M道和R道的城市道路交通流演化.结果 表明:事故车辆会形成交通瓶颈,呈现上游车辆聚集下游车辆稀疏的时空特征...     

Urbanisation and flood vulnerability in the peri-urban interface of Mexico City

Chronic flooding in the Chalco valley, state of Mexico, Mexico, is the outcome of past and present socio‐environmental changes which have taken place in Mexico City's south‐eastern peri‐urban interface. This flooding is the result of a complex interaction between urbanisation in an ex‐lacustrine area, permanent ecological deterioration and ground subsidence, poor sanitation and inadequate policy responses. Far from solving the flooding problem, short‐term policy responses have created increasingly unsafe conditions for current residents. A socio‐historical analysis of disasters reveals the importance of taking into consideration particular social actors and institutions in hazard generation and flood vulnerability over time. This paper analyses three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of approaching floods from a socio‐historical perspective; second, the relation between urbanisation, former policies and flood risk generation; and third, current policy responses to and the failure in the risk management of La Compañía Canal.     

Weather-mediated natural selection on arrival time in cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota)

An unusually long period of cold weather in May 1996 caused extensive mortality among insectivorous cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) in the northern and central Great Plains. We analyzed how viability selection affected spring arrival time in a migratory Nebraska population by comparing capture histories of survivors with those of birds known to have died and by documenting how arrival time changed in the year following the selection event. Surviving birds had significantly later first-capture dates (an index of arrival time) in the years prior to selection than those that died; a significant selection differential suggested directional selection for birds that arrived later. Colony sites were occupied significantly later following the selection event, and the distribution of first-capture dates in the season after selection was significantly shifted toward later arrivals. Offspring of the survivors tended to arrive later than birds of the same age prior to the selection event. While major weather-caused mortality events of this magnitude are rare in the study area, spells of cold weather severe enough to cause limited mortality are frequent in April and early May. At least 25 probable mortality events of varying severity were identified in the last 50 years based on climatological data. Periodic weather-mediated selection against early arrival constrains the cliff swallow’s breeding season and may partly prevent directional selection for earlier nesting. Received: 19 October 1999 / Received in revised form: 15 January 2000 / Accepted: 24 January 2000     

Framing of Geoengineering Affects Support for Climate Change Mitigation

The growing recognition that climate change mitigation alone will be inadequate has led scientists and policymakers to discuss climate geoengineering. An experiment with a US sample found, contrary to previous research, that reading about geoengineering did not reduce conservatives’ skepticism about the existence of anthropogenic climate change. Moreover, depending on how it is framed, geoengineering can reduce support for mitigation among both conservatives and non-conservatives. When geoengineering is framed as a major solution, people worry less about climate change, leading to reduced mitigation support. When framed as disastrous, people perceived geoengineering as riskier, also leading to a decrease in mitigation support. A more moderate framing of geoengineering as a partial solution is less susceptible to moral hazard effects. Overall, results suggest that geoengineering will not lessen political polarization over anthropogenic climate change, and could undercut support for mitigation efforts. Instead, framing geoengineering as a small piece to solving a big puzzle seems to be the best strategy to weaken this potential moral hazard.