深圳市几种空气污染物浓度日变化特征分析

通过对深圳市2002年8月至2003年8月五种空气污染物浓度日变化特征、相互关系及不同天气条件下的变化,与人们活动的关系等进行分析,试图找出深圳空气污染的主要成因及变化规律,为环境规划决策提供科学依据。     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

linking various aspects of atmospheric change through a systems analysis of food

Although interdisciplinary collaboration to address a singleenvironmental problem is more common than in the past, all toooften the significant atmospheric problems of our day such asstratospheric ozone depletion, acidic deposition or climaticchange are addressed on a single issue basis. Systems analysis isa way of looking at a problem in a holistic, integrated fashionthrough including as many as practicable of the importantcomponents, and the linkages among them. Systems analysisoften begins with a conceptual model which, even if lackingquantification, is a useful means of changing ones thinking to amulti-issue approach. If possible, conceptual models areoperationalized by quantification (using the best availablescientific knowledge) of the stocks and flows of the relevantcomponents of the problem, and the processes that are involved.In this paper, a systems approach to food production is used tolink various atmospheric issues such as regional acidification andclimatic change. A spreadsheet model of food demand andproduction in various world regions examined the possible effectof atmospheric change on how much food we can grow, andwhether or not we may be able to meet the increased demand inthe year 2025. Using relatively modest changes in factors ofagricultural production, the spreadsheet model calculated globalshortfalls by the year 2025 of the order of 10 to 20% in someimportant agricultural crops, despite the improvements in cropproduction factors that are envisaged by the Food andAgricultural Organization from now until the year 2010, and thatwere extrapolated in this paper to 2025. The model alsocalculated that climatic change in combination with eithertropospheric ozone or increased UV-B radiation caused bydepletion of the stratospheric ozone layer may in general makethe situation worse than in the case of climatic change alone.Given the large uncertainties in the input data, the results in thispaper should not be viewed as predictions but rather as anexample of taking a relatively simple systems approach to foodproduction using a spreadsheet model, and calculating the effectsthat various aspects of atmospheric change might have upon it.Therefore, it is extremely important to know the effects uponcrop production factors of climatic change, tropospheric ozoneand increased UV-B radiation not only as individual issues, butalso of their combined effect since it is probable that in manyregions they will occur in combination.     

乌鲁木齐冬季大气混浊度系数与光气候

本文利用30年的气候资料分析了乌鲁木齐冬季光气候与大气混浊度之间的关系,指出了大气混浊度的增加是造成辐射总照度下降的主要原因.     

Mega-Development Trends in the Amazon: Implications for Global Change

This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr^–1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr^–1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr^–1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia.The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranho, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin.The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges.Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO₂ and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO₂.     

The Impact of Landsat Satellite Monitoring on Conservation Biology

Landsat 7s recent malfunctioning will result in significant gaps in long-term satellite monitoring of Earth, affecting not only the research of the Earth science community but also conservation users of these data. To determine whether or how important Landsat monitoring is for conservation and natural resource management, we reviewed the Landsat programs history with special emphasis on the development of user groups. We also conducted a bibliographic search to determine the extent to which conservation research has been based on Landsat data. Conservation biologists were not an early user group of Landsat data because a) biologists lacked technical capacity – computers and software – to analyze these data; b) Landsats 1980s commercialization rendered images too costly for biologists budgets; and c) the broad-scale disciplines of conservation biology and landscape ecology did not develop until the mid-to-late 1980s. All these conditions had changed by the 1990s and Landsat imagery became an important tool for conservation biology. Satellite monitoring and Landsat continuity are mandated by the Land Remote Sensing Act of 1992. This legislation leaves open commercial options. However, past experiments with commercial operations were neither viable nor economical, and severely reduced the quality of monitoring, archiving and data access for academia and the public. Future satellite monitoring programs are essential for conservation and natural resource management, must provide continuity with Landsat, and should be government operated.     

Biological complexity confounds the separation of point- and non-point sources of human impact on the natural world

Identifying process from pattern is one of the most vexing tasks inenvironmental monitoring. Given information on the distribution of speciesin a pre-defined area, together with comprehensive data on how environmentalconditions in that area have altered through time, is it possible toidentify the factors controlling the species‘ layout? Here, the practicalsignificance of this quandary is demonstrated using a series ofenvironmentally-degraded coastal lagoons in New South Wales. The TuggerahLakes (33°17′S,151°30′E) have over the last 50 yearsexperienced significant changes in species‘ distributions. Seagrasses,macroalgae, phytoplankton, molluscs, prawns and the jellyfish Catostylus mosaicus have altered in spatial pattern. Two human activitieshave been blamed for these perturbations: (1) agricultural clearance ofnative vegetation from the catchment, with associated input of top-soil andnutrients; (2) the commissioning of a coal-fired power station in 1967, withmassive uptake and recirculation of lake water for cooling purposes. In thispaper, spatial changes in macrophyte distributions over the last 50 yearsare reviewed in an attempt to identify the true source(s) of perturbation.The model adopted assumes that the power station is a point source of impactwhile nutrient inputs from the catchment are a diffuse source of impact;changes in species distributions can hypothetically be related back to thesesources according to whether they are localised or widespread. However,after a comprehensive analysis of available macrophyte data derived frominterviews, aerial photography and line transect methodologyies theconclusion is reached that changes in biogeographical pattern around theTuggerah Lakes cannot be attributed to specific anthropogenic pressures atanything beyond the coarsest of levels. This is considered to be the normfor most coastal management situations where natural background variation(’noise‘) and the complexity of linkages between physical, chemical andbiological components confounds the identification of causal relationships.The practical implications of this conclusion are discussed in the contextof litigation and remedial management design. Emphasis is placed on theneed to adopt an adaptive approach to estuarine management, incorporatingexplicit recognition of the limitations of available data, and to developnew techniques for identifying cause-effect relationships.     

煤中有害元素对环境和人体健康影响的评价参数

煤中有害元素对环境和人体健康影响的较为全面的评价体系一直未建立，环保部门也缺乏系统性评价参数对电厂等在煤煤过程中有害元素排向大气的释放量进行监测估算。本文在查阅大量资料（主要为外文）的基础上，认为评价煤中有害元素对环境和人体健康影响的参数应该包括以下方面的数据C、H、O、N、无机硫，有机硫，有害微量元素的含量，分布规律，赋存状态，迁移转化行为（在燃煤过程中），洁净能力，淋滤力，矿物质，有机化学特征，煤炭学特征，并对煤中有害元素的污染方法进行探讨，如果上述各参数的数据被全面提供，并据此数据作针对性的抑制措施，煤中有害元素对环境和人体健康危害影响必将降低到最小。     

江苏宿迁地震台短水准测量场地改造的探讨

地震前兆数据观测中,经常会遇到各种干扰,有的干扰可以很快排除,但有的是无法排除的.目前我们的短水准受到铺路影响就属于后一种情形,它直接影响到我们测量场地的生存.为了让观测数据得以延续,我们努力寻找解决问题的办法,最后采用把观测点平移再对比观测的方法来解决问题.     

尖点突变模型在研究洪水引起环境突变中的应用

以1998年霍林河特大洪水为例，在进行洪水对环境影响作用分析的基础上，将洪水发生的危险系数、地面高程、地形坡度、降雨影响程度、土地盐碱率和草地开垦率6个控制变量划分为两个主分量。由于洪水引起的环境突变可以归纳为一种耦合突变，我们采用尖点突变模型进行求解，得出各主分量的数学表达式和水环境突变区域边界，绘制了该流域环境突变分区图，论证了应用尖点突变模型研究环境突变的合理性。