四川省泥石流灾害保险的风险分析与区划

泥石流灾害保险的风险评估和区划，是分区分类防灾和损失评估的重要依据，也是泥石流灾害保险费率厘定的基础。采用综合评判的数学方法，选取对泥石流灾害保险起主导作用的灾害损失、孕灾环境和风险区价值为评判因子，对泥石流灾害保险的风险进行了评估。以四川省为例，介绍了进行风险区划的方法和步骤，将四川全省按地、市、州级行政区划分为19个风险评判区，对各区进行泥石流灾害保险风险评估，在此基础上完成了四川省泥石流灾害保险风险评估区划图。     

Climate Convention Implementation: An Opportunity for the Pacific Island Nations to Move Toward Sustainable Energy Systems

This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific Island region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular, through transfer of technology and via joint implementation. It is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific Island environments. It is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions.     

Pressures,trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems

This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.     

北京地区15000年以来环境变迁中灾害性气候突变事件的讨论

通过高分辨率孢粉分析及烧失量、炭屑实验结果的统计分析，结合１４Ｃ、古地磁等，对北京房山东甘池１５０００ａ以来植被变化和环境变迁进行了较为深入的研究，特别强调气候变化的灾害性突变事件。初步得知约在１４１００～１４０００ａＢ．Ｐ．前后曾出现与哥得堡反转相对应的事件，在１００００ａＢ．Ｐ．左右出现类似与新仙女木事件相对应的事件，在大约５７７０ａＢ．Ｐ．和４５６０ａＢ．Ｐ．左右及２８５０～２６５０ａＢ．Ｐ．出现了大暖期的突然降温事件。     

气候变化与自然灾害

气候变化与自然灾害是当今科学研究的两大热点，两者之间在一定程度上具有相关性，但目前要确切地定量计算气候变化对自然灾害的强度和出现频率的影响还很困难。本文在分析气候变化与自然灾害关系的基础上，研究了气候变化对我国自然灾害的影响。研究结果显示：１．在千年尺度上，长江流域的大旱和气候变冷成正相关，而长江流域的大涝以及黄河流域的大旱和大涝与气候冷暖过渡期成正相关；２．在百年尽度上，近１０４２年来，共出现２８１次全国性大旱和大涝，平均每百年出现２７次，在地域分布上以南涝北旱为主；３．就百年至千年尺度的气候变化对自然灾害的影响而言，气候冷冷组合期（１３０１～１９００）易发生全国性大涝，而冷暖组合期（９５０～１３００年，１９０１～１９９１年）易发生全国性大旱。总的来说，冷冷组合期的大旱大涝发生频率明显大于暖期，但不同地区有差异；４．在其它影响方面，台风、地震与海啸灾害在冷暖组合期（２０世纪）均有比冷冷组合期（１４和１９世纪）多的趋势。因此，气候变暖将使防灾任务更加艰巨。     

城市生命线系统的非工程防灾减灾

城市生命线系统的防灾减灾分为工程措施和非工程措施，研究和实践通常都偏重于前者。从工程措施作用的有限性、新型生命线系统灾害的特点及灾害损失类型的变化论证了加强非工程措施的必要性，进而说明了如何从管理体制、技术立法、灾害保险及灾害教育等方面构建城市生命线系统的非工程防灾减灾体系。     

徐州市职业安全卫生工作探讨

本文概略描述了徐州市职业安全卫生各组成部门的工作情况。指出职业病危害存在患者待遇不落实、职业危害项目转移、职业健康检查滞后、工作场所职业危害因素检测、评价制度不健全的状况。调查发现，职业卫生工作存在5个方面的问题：现有职业卫生法律法规不够完善；对职业危害防治工作的支持力度不够；部门之间的协作机制有待加强；执法监督力量不足；企业法制意识淡漠。最后，提出解决问题的应对办法。     

推广工伤保险对我国生产事故统计的影响

我国安全生产统计工作所依托的行政手段还不能完全适应变化中的市场经济环境 ,政府安全生产管理不到位 ,监管不严 ,各类事故的少报、瞒报、不报现象相当普遍 ,极大地影响了伤亡事故统计的准确性。2 0 0 4年我国已实施新的《工伤保险条例》 ,笔者认为 ,会在一个较长的时期内对生产事故统计带来较明显的影响 ,使生产事故造成的伤亡人数统计变得更为全面和科学 ,这种影响必然会对原有统计偏差的修正 ,有利于今后加强和完善对安全生产的宏观决策和管理 ,会从根本上促进安全生产水平的提高。     

CO2-free paper?

Black liquor gasification–combined cycle (BLGCC) is a new technology that has the potential to increase electricity production of a chemical pulping mill. Increased electricity generation in combination with the potential to use biomass (e.g. bark, hog fuel) more efficiently can result in increased power output compared to the conventional Tomlinson-boiler. Because the BLGCC enables an integrated pulp and paper mill to produce excess power, it can offset electricity produced by power plants. This may lead to reduction of the net-CO₂ emissions. The impact of BLGCC to offset CO₂ emissions from the pulp and paper industry is studied. We focus on two different plant designs and compare the situation in Sweden and the US. The CO₂ emissions are studied as function of the share of recycled fibre used to make the paper. The study shows that under specific conditions the production of “CO₂-free paper” is possible. First, energy efficiency in pulp and paper mills needs to be improved to allow the export of sufficient power to offset emissions from fossil fuels used in boilers and other equipment. Secondly, the net-CO₂ emission per ton of paper depends strongly on the emission reduction credits for electricity export, and hence on the country or grid to which the paper mill is connected. Thirdly, supplemental use of biomass to replace fossil fuel inputs is important to reduce the overall emissions of the pulp and paper industry.     

灾难模型化及其国外主要开发商

简略分析了灾难模型化和它在保险业中的应用;介绍了当前国外从事灾难模型化的主要研发单位,包括独立的模型化公司、大学研究所、再保险公司、再保险中介经纪公司和政府机构。同时收集了一些最近灾难模型化些文献,希望这些信息能有助于同行在我国减灾保险方面的研究。