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101.
This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution
of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection
at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes
in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity
would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline.
The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2.
Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were
due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of
climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution
of the climate projections. 相似文献
102.
Kuo LJ Louchouarn P Herbert BE Brandenberger JM Wade TL Crecelius E 《Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)》2011,159(4):983-990
Reconstructions of 250 years historical inputs of two distinct types of black carbon (soot/graphitic black carbon (GBC) and char-BC) were conducted on sediment cores from two basins of the Puget Sound, WA. Signatures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were also used to support the historical reconstructions of BC to this system. Down-core maxima in GBC and combustion-derived PAHs occurred in the 1940s in the cores from the Puget Sound Main Basin, whereas in Hood Canal such peak was observed in the 1970s, showing basin-specific differences in inputs of combustion byproducts. This system showed relatively higher inputs from softwood combustion than the northeastern U.S. The historical variations in char-BC concentrations were consistent with shifts in climate indices, suggesting an influence of climate oscillations on wildfire events. Environmental loading of combustion byproducts thus appears as a complex function of urbanization, fuel usage, combustion technology, environmental policies, and climate conditions. 相似文献
103.
We modelled the combined effects of past and expected future changes in climate and nitrogen deposition on tree carbon sequestration by European forests for the period 1900-2050. Two scenarios for deposition (current legislation and maximum technically feasible reductions) and two climate scenarios (no change and SRES A1 scenario) were used. Furthermore, the possible limitation of forest growth by calcium, magnesium, potassium and phosphorus is investigated. The area and age structure of the forests was assumed to stay constant to observations during the period 1970-1990. Under these assumptions, the simulations show that the change in forest growth and carbon sequestration in the past is dominated by changes in nitrogen deposition, while climate change is the major driver for future carbon sequestration. However, its impact is reduced by nitrogen availability. Furthermore, limitations in base cations, especially magnesium, and in phosphorus may significantly affect predicted growth in the future. 相似文献
104.
In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO2 emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of
CO2 concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed
with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective.
It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from
moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved
at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis
shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect. 相似文献
105.
The climate simulations from atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) are often used to analyze the potential effects of climate change on environmental resources. It has been demonstrated that there are differences among the simulations from various GCMs, on spatial scales ranging from global to regional. This paper quantifies the differences in temperature and precipitation simulated by three major GCMs for four specific regions: an agricultural region (the North American winter wheat belt), a hydrologic region (the Great Basin), a demographic region (the high-density population corridor of the northeast United States), and a political region (the state of Texas). Both the current (control) climate and the climatic response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are consideredIn each region, even when the data are averaged on a seasonal basis, marked differences occurred in the areal average climate simulated by the different GCMs for both the control climate and the doubled-CO2 climate. Thus, climate impact studies based on the simulations of more than one GCM could easily yield a range of possible results 相似文献
106.
Model simulations of dissolved oxygen characteristics of Minnesota lakes: Past and future 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily
dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the
oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the
model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area (A
s), maximum depth (H
max), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth (Z
s). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms
of a stratification parameterA
s/H
max
0.25
and Secchi depthZ
s. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest
are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as
follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios
are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and
time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted
(monthly) by the 2 × CO2 GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO2. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above
7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2–8 mg/liter.
Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound
effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management
options. 相似文献
107.
广深准高速铁路安全管理模式探讨 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
葛闻安 《中国安全科学学报》1995,5(4):7-9
广深准高速铁路的开通运营,以及广深铁路公司股份制改造,从客观上要求改革与优化铁路安全管理体制,建工新的铁路安全管理模式。本文构造了广深铁路安全管理模式,满足国家确定的“企业负责,行业管理,国家监察,群众监督”的安全工作体制要求,引入风险管理,实行事故保险,提出应该以安全文化作为新模式的软件,优化新的安全管理体制。 相似文献
108.
本文分析了江苏省近几十年来、特别是80年代以来冬季气温的变化特征,根据农业灾害发生的条件,讨论了“暖冬”对农业生产及农业灾害的影响,为农业生产部门和防灾抗灾部门决策提供科学依据. 相似文献
109.
Kennett SA 《Environmental management》2002,30(5):0595-0608
Biosphere greenhouse gas (GHG) management consists of preserving and enhancing terrestrial carbon pools and producing biomass
as a fossil fuel substitute. The discussion of this topic has focused primarily on carbon-accounting and project-level issues,
particularly relating to carbon sequestration as a source of emissions credits under the Kyoto Protocol. While international
consensus on these matters is needed, this paper argues that an important domestic policy agenda also deserves attention.
National policies for biosphere GHG management are necessary to bring about large-scale changes in land-use, forestry, and
agricultural practices and can address some of the technical and policy issues that have proven to be particularly problematic
from carbon-accounting and project-level perspectives. These policies should minimize land-use and resource-management conflicts,
account for collateral benefits, and ensure institutional compatibility with existing resource-management regimes. Issues
relating to project permanence, leakage, and transaction costs should also be addressed. A range of policy instruments should
be used and biosphere GHG management should be one component of an integrated approach to environmental and resource management.
Countries promoting biosphere GHG management as an important element of their climate change strategies should be developing
these domestic policies to complement international negotiations and to demonstrate that carbon sequestration and biomass
production can make an effective contribution to the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations. 相似文献
110.
Advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand: Policy intervention and institutional settings
This article reviews and analyses the advancement of renewable sources of energy in Bangladesh and Thailand in terms of policy intervention and institutional settings. Since renewable forms of energy emit far smaller amounts of greenhouse gas compared with fossil fuels, their use should mitigate climate change impacts while contributing to the provision of energy services. The article turns first to a review of energy–environment trends and the potential for renewables in these two nations. It then discusses strategies for the advancement of renewables. It is argued that further significant efforts can be made towards the advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand. These two nations could also learn from the experience in industrialized nations and other developing nations with regard to requisite policy instruments and processes. A number of barriers remain to the advancement of renewables, especially in terms of policy arrangements, institutional settings, financing mechanisms and technologies. Resources, cooperation and learning are required in order to overcome such barriers and to foster the development of necessary policy measures. Implementation of the clean development mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, and replication and adaptation of effective strategies from other settings are possible avenues for this. 相似文献