Climate, canopy conductance and leaf area development controls on evapotranspiration in a boreal coniferous forest over a 10-year period: A united model assessment

The aim of this work was to test a process-based model (hydrological model combined with forest growth model) on the simulation of seasonal variability of evapotranspiration (ET) in an even-aged boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stand over a 10 year period (1999-2008). The water flux components (including canopy transpiration (E_t) and evaporation from canopy (E_c) and ground surface (E_g) were estimated in order to output the long-term stand water budget considering the interaction between climate variations and stand development. For validation, half-hourly data on eddy water vapor fluxes were measured during the 10 growing seasons (May-September). The model predicted well the seasonal course of ET compared to the measured values, but slightly underestimated the water fluxes both in non-drought and drought (2000, 2003 and 2006) years. The prediction accuracy was, on average, higher in drought years. The simulated ET over the 10 years explained, on average, 58% of the daily variations and 84% of the monthly amount of ET. Water amount from E_t contributed most to the ET, with the fractions of E_t, E_c and E_g being, on average, 67, 11 and 23% over the 10-year period, respectively. Regardless of weather conditions, the daily ET was strongly dependent on air temperature (T_a) and vapor pressure deficit (D_a), but less dependent on soil moisture (W_s). On cloudy and rainy days, there was a non-linear relationship between the ET and solar radiation (R_o). During drought years, the model predicted lower daily canopy stomatal conductance (g_cs) compared with non-drought years, leading to a lower level of E_t. The modeled daily g_cs responded well to D_a and W_s. In the model simulation, the annual LAI increased by 35% between 1999 and 2008. The ratio of E_c: ET correlated strongly with LAI. Furthermore, LAI reduced the proportion of E_g as a result of the increased share of E_c and E_t and radiation interception. Although the increase of LAI affected positively E_t, the contribution of E_t in ET was not significantly correlated with LAI. To conclude, although the model predicted reasonably well the seasonal course of ET, the calculation time steps of different processes in the model should be homogenized in the future to increase the prediction accuracy.     

Quantifying the sustainability of water use systems: Calculating the balance between network efficiency and resilience

In ecological network theory, network efficiency and resilience are two essential but complementary attributes of the network structure, and a balance between these factors is critical for an ecosystem's long-term sustainability. Our paper introduces this method and related concepts into water use systems to provide a new angle for sustainability quantification. In this paper, we investigate the meanings of network efficiency and resilience in the context of sustainable development of water use systems, and define sustainable systems based on the optimal balance between network efficiency and resilience. With the consideration of complex artificial characteristics of water use, we propose an optimal water use network and quantify its flows. By ascendency calculation, the balanced network structure can be determined. We then use the four sub-basins of China's Haihe River as a case study to illustrate how the optimal network can be constructed and how the optimal balance for each scenario can be calculated. The results show that the optimal balance for the sub-basins has ascendency values ranging from 0.5970 to 0.7161. By analyzing the contribution of each water use activity to network's balance structure, the location of the optimal balance in water use systems can be better understood. This research represents the first attempt to explore the balance between a network structure's efficiency and resilience as a way to quantify the sustainability of water use systems, and builds a foundation for future studies on the assessment, regulation, and management of water resources.     

Fish assemblages composition in a natural, then regulated, stream: A quantitative long-term study

This paper tests the hypothesis how effectively fish assemblage composition was shaped by local climate changes and by engineering impact in 1989. This was possible due to the monitoring protocols of the present study, which allowed estimation of the magnitude of anthropogenic changes from changes naturally occurring in nature. Fish were sampled at the end of every growing season (October) for 23 years at five contiguous sites in a stream, before (1979-1988) and after (1989-2001) regulation. In each sample, six successive electrofishing passes were used to calculate the density and mean biomass for assemblage analysis using the Zippin model. During the study, the natural, meandering stream with pools, riffles, and a moderate canopy was modified into a straight stream of uniform width and depth, stripped of all vegetation. The output layer of a self-organizing map (SOM, the artificial neural network algorithm) applied in this study for site similarity analysis was partitioned into six subclusters placed in two main clusters. Subclusters in the upper part of the SOM were occupied chiefly by regulated stream samples and those in the lower part of the SOM by natural stream samples. Subclusters in the middle position, contained both natural (19) and regulated (20) samples in nearly equal proportion. In addition, the SOM contained one subcluster with sites only from the regulated period and another with only natural sites. Differences between subclusters were attributed to differences in climate, with some differences profound. Warming of the local weather, which became most evident in the 1990s, may have resulted in changes in fish assemblages. This is shown in the SOM, in which samples from the 1980s with cold years dominate the bottom of the SOM, whereas those from the 1990s and later are at the top. Subclusters dominated by regulated or natural sites were not always significantly different when the number of species and diversity indices were considered. Clear differences between the regulated and natural samples involved qualitative characteristics and mainly concerned assemblage composition. They were also confirmed by significant IndVal values (indicator species) and neither mixed subcluster contained important species in their assemblages.     

Opinions of 12 to 13-year-olds in Austria and Australia on the concern,cause and imminence of climate change

Early adolescence (12–13 years old) is a critical but under-researched demographic for the formation of attitudes related to climate change. We address this important area by exploring adolescent views about climate change. This paper presents opinions collected from surveys of 463 1st-year secondary school students (12–13 years old) in public secondary schools in inner-urban centres in Austria and Australia on whether climate change is (1) something about which to worry, (2) caused by humans and (3) happening now. Eligible respondents in both countries showed similar levels of agreement that climate change was probably or definitely something we should (1) worry about (84.6% Austria, 89.1% Australia), which is significantly higher than either country’s adult population. Eligible respondents agreed that climate change probably or definitely is (2) caused by humans (75.6% Austria, 83.6% Australia) and that climate change is probably or definitely something that is (3) happening now (73.1% Austria, 87.5% Australia). Their response differed from the respective adult populations, but in opposite directions. Our results suggest that socio-cultural worldview may not have as much influence on this age group as it does on the respective adult populations and suggests that this age group would be receptive and ready for climate science education and engagement initiatives.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01356-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate

For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.     

Reducing climate change gas emissions by cutting out stages in the life cycle of office paper

The paper industry's climate change gas emissions are growing. This article considers how to reduce emissions from cut-size office paper by bypassing stages in its life cycle. The options considered are: incineration, which cuts out landfill; localisation, which cuts out transport; annual fibre, which cuts out forestry and reduces pulping; fibre recycling, which cuts out landfill, forestry and pulping; un-printing, which cuts out all stages except printing; electronic-paper, which cuts out all stages. Un-printing may offer the greatest climate change emission reduction. There are uncertainties in this result, particularly in estimating the proportion of waste office paper would be suitable for un-printing.     

Urbanization and environmental policy effects on the future availability of grazing resources on the Mongolian Plateau: Modeling socio-environmental system dynamics

The rangelands of the Mongolian Plateau are dynamic socio-environmental systems that are influenced by a complex network of drivers, including climate, social institutions, market forces, and national-scale policies affecting land access and management. The sustainability and resilience of rangelands in this region depend on the ability of residents and policy makers to quickly respond by adapting livelihoods and land uses to changes in environmental and socio-economic conditions, but the responses of the system to these changes are often non-linear and difficult to predict. We developed a system dynamics model to understand how the human, natural, and land-use processes in the Mongolian rangeland ecosystem interact to produce dynamic outcomes in both grassland productivity and livestock populations. We developed two separate models based on a common integrative framework for two case study areas: Suhkbaatar Aimag in Mongolia and Xilingol League in Inner Mongolia. We used future scenarios for each region generated with stakeholder input to forecast trends in grassland area, livestock numbers, and biomass under alternative climate, socioeconomic, and land-use futures. By incorporating stakeholder-developed scenarios, we were able to explore future scenarios tailored to the particular questions and concerns relevant to the individual study areas. We find that while there are many similarities in the factors driving system dynamics in the two countries, the trajectories of key grassland resources are quite different, both between the two study regions and across the individual scenarios. Environmental policies play a key role in Xilingol, while economic development is a key driver in Sukhbaatar. Urbanization dynamics will be a major influence on the availability of grassland resources in the future.     

Understanding the impact of climate change on the dwindling water resources of South Africa,focusing mainly on Olifants River basin: A review

In this paper, consideration has focused mainly on the extent and usefulness of the existing literature available so far on the understanding of the impact of climate change on water resources in Africa, focusing mainly on the Olifants River basin in South Africa. Here, the existing literature on the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle (particularly the hydrological processes like temperature, precipitation and runoff) has been reviewed. The uncertainties, constraints and limitations in climate change research have been discussed at great length. A detailed discussion has been highlighted on the remaining knowledge gaps in climate change research, especially in Africa. In addition to the research gaps highlighted here, the emphasis on the need of climate change research by African scientists is included as part of lessons learnt. Overall, the importance of conducting further research in climate change, understanding the potential impact of climate change on our lives, and taking actions to effectively meet the adaptation needs of the people, emerge as an important theme in this review.     

South-Siberian mountain mires: Perspectives on a potentially vulnerable remote source of biodiversity

Changes in climate, land-use and pollution are having disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity of arctic and mountain ecosystems. While these impacts are well-documented for many areas of the Arctic and alpine regions, some isolated and inaccessible mountain areas are poorly studied. Furthermore, even in well-studied regions, assessments of biodiversity and species responses to environmental change are biased towards vascular plants and cryptogams, particularly bryophytes are far less represented. This paper aims to document the environments of the remote and inaccessible Altai-Sayan mountain mires and particularly their bryofloras where threatened species exist and species new to the regional flora are still being found. As these mountain mires are relatively inaccessible, changes in drivers of change and their ecosystem and biodiversity impacts have not been monitored. However, the remoteness of the mires has so far protected them and their species. In this study, we describe the mires, their bryophyte species and the expected impacts of environmental stressors to bring attention to the urgency of documenting change and conserving these pristine ecosystems.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01596-w.     

基于“乡土—生态”系统韧性的红色旅游资源利用空间格局优化研究——以大别山革命老区为例

红色旅游资源利用与开发将对旅游地的人地关系地域系统产生强烈扰动,基于“乡土—生态”系统韧性水平厘定红色旅游资源利用空间格局,有利于推动红色旅游资源开发与区域可持续发展共促共赢。以大别山革命老区为例,从经济、社会、文化、生态四方面构建红色旅游地“乡土—生态”系统韧性水平评价体系,并对红色旅游资源的空间特征与类型进行识别。研究结果为：（1）各县域“乡土—生态”系统韧性以中低水平为主,呈“中部高、四周低”的空间分布特征。（2）区域内各子系统韧性处于勉强协调状态,县级行政单元的协调度呈现中等水平多、较高与较低水平少的“橄榄型”等级结构。（3）红色旅游资源的冷、热点区分别位于大别山南北两侧及中心地带,呈现出“大集聚、小分散”的特征,根据其规模、影响力划为五种聚类分区。（4）依据“乡土—生态”系统韧性在红色旅游资源高富集区可通过内部要素重构向更高水平发展、在中低密度区因吸纳和适应外界扰动力较弱而与红色旅游资源开发相互抑制这一特征,初步厘定“三区、两带、三核心”的红色旅游资源利用空间格局,并针对不同区域从“乡土—生态”系统韧性视角下提出差异化建议,以期排除红色旅游资源开发对“乡土—生态”系统产生的干扰。