华南寒潮气候特征研究

本文利用华南地区４８站逐日气温资料，分析寒潮气候特征．经分析发现：华南寒潮频数由北向南减少，内陆多于沿海。寒潮过程年代际变化有逐渐减少的趋势。华南寒潮平均过程降温居全国之首，８０％以上集中在１０．０～１９．０℃降温幅度内。     

The potential of pigeonpea (Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp.) in Africa

Pigeonpea is a tropical grain legume grown mainly in India. Though largely considered an orphan crop, pigeonpea has a huge untapped potential for improvement both in quantity and quality of production in Africa. More than any other legume adapted to the region, pigeonpea uniquely combines optimal nutritional profiles, high tolerance to environmental stresses, high biomass productivity and most nutrient and moisture contributions to the soil. The legume can be utilized in several diverse ways while the high genetic variability that exists within the cultivated and wild relatives remains to be explored for further uses. This article highlights the need for popularizing pigeonpea as a major legume crop in Africa. The main constraints to productivity are discussed and recent breeding efforts in Africa highlighted. Important opportunities for improvement are further provided.     

Projected Climate Change Effects on Winterkill in Shallow Lakes in the Northern United States

2 was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. To illustrate the effect of projected climate change on lake DO characteristics, we present herein DO information simulated, respectively, with inputs of past climate conditions (1961–1979) and with a projected 2 × CO₂ climate scenario, as well as differences of those values. Specific parameters obtained were minimum under-ice and lake bottom DO concentration in winter, duration of under-ice anoxic conditions (<0.1 mg/liter) and low DO conditions (<3 mg/liter), and percentage of anoxic and low DO lake volumes during the ice cover period. Under current climate conditions winterkill occurs typically in shallow eutrophic lakes of the northern contiguous United States. Climate warming is projected to eliminate winterkill in these lakes. This would be a positive effect of climate warming. Fish species under ice may still experience periods of stress and zero growth due to low DO (<3 mg/liter) conditions under projected climate warming.     

Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa. Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance in Malawi

This paper discusses the applicability of crop insurance for the case of Malawi and explores the potential impact of climate change on the viability of the Malawi weather insurance program making use of scenarios of climate change-induced variations in rainfall patterns. The analysis is important from a methodological and policy perspective. By combining catastrophe insurance modeling with climate modeling, the methodology demonstrates the feasibility, albeit with large uncertainties, of estimating the effects of climate variability and climate change on the near- and long-term future of microinsurance schemes serving the poor. By providing a model-based estimate of insurance back-up capital necessary to avoid ruin under climate variability and climate change, along with the associated uncertainties and data limitations, this methodology can quantitatively demonstrate the need for financial assistance to protect micro-insurance pools against climate-induced insolvency. This is of major concern to donors, NGOs and others supporting these innovative systems, those actually at-risk and insurers providing insurance. A quantitative estimate of the additional burden that climate change imposes on weather insurance for poor regions is of interest to organizations funding adaptation. Further, by linking catastrophe modeling to regionalized climate modeling, the analysis identifies key modeling inputs necessary as well as important constraints. We end with a discussion of the opportunities and limits to similar modeling and weather predictability for Sub-Saharan Africa beyond the case of Malawi.

Linking the Northeast states of the US mitigation program to the EU Emission Trading Scheme—Implications and costs

It is argued that there are at least five reasons for the Northeast states of the United States to implement a regional emission trading scheme for carbon dioxide despite the lack of federal policy regulations: goodwill, learning, political influence, risk management and competitiveness interests. Using an energy-economy model, the carbon price to bring the firms into compliance with a 10% reduction by 2020 is estimated to be 20-150 US$ per ton C. There have been discussions about linking the ongoing EU Emission Trading Schemes to the Northeast state initiative. The prime argument is that such a linkage would encourage a change of the federal US policy, which has traditionally followed action taken at the state level. Emissions trading with binding mitigation commitments could thus be demanded and accepted also on federal level. This paper demonstrates that the impact of linkage on permit prices depends on the reduction target in the European scheme: A low EU target results in a net flow of permits to the Northeast scheme, while a 40% EU reduction target results in a net flow of permits from the Northeast. Flow of permits from the Northeast state must be compensated for by the EU because the United States is not a party of the Kyoto Protocol. The EU must therefore buy permits in allowances recognized in the Kyoto regime in an amount equal to the net flow of permits from the Northeast states.

Linking corporate climate adaptation strategies with resilience thinking

Within modern society, business organizations have a co-evolutionary relationship with society and ecosystems. Business organizations face highly diverse risks which they have to recognize, reflect on and handle. Climate change and its impacts clarify the need for managing overall system risk. Research has shown that climate vulnerability of business organizations in the German food industry is characterized by impacts that, in particular, affect business organizations indirectly. Indirect climate change caused impacts are complex, uncertain and characterized by a high degree of unpredictability. They focus on the derived social, ecological, economic and cultural consequences of the direct physical impacts from a worldwide perspective. This paper shows that introducing resilience thinking helps to identify strategic risks and opportunities coping with climate change caused impacts in sense of corporate climate adaptation strategies. Furthermore, it is shown from a strategic management perspective that mitigation is a profound element of long term adaptation strategies.     

The interaction between emissions trading and renewable electricity support schemes. An overview of the literature

The public promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources coexists in many countries with the recent implementation of emissions trading schemes. As shown by several papers, this coexistence may lead to significant interactions between both instruments, in the form of synergies and conflicts. This paper provides an overview and analysis of the literature on such coexistence and interactions. A major conclusion is that policy measures aiming at exploiting the synergies between both instruments should be implemented. The greatest synergy effects from the use of both instruments take place through appropriate coordination of their targets. Another key finding is that, although some stylised facts can be inferred from the studies, some results from those complex interactions are context-specific since they depend on the design of the instruments in particular countries. In spite of the significant policy implications of such interactions for the effective and cost-effective functioning of both instruments, this is a surprisingly under searched field. It is so concerning, both, theoretical and empirical analysis.

Setting greenhouse gas emission targets under baseline uncertainty: the Bush Climate Change Initiative

There is substantial uncertainty regarding baseline greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions forecasts—i.e., how GHG emissions will grow over time in the absence of policy intervention. Thus baseline uncertainty should be a key consideration in setting GHG emissions targets as a mitigation strategy to respond to global climate change. At a minimum, the emissions target must be less than the baseline level to induce changing behavior and new investment. Despite this fundamental policy criterion, baseline considerations have played only a minor role in target setting under international climate policy. Baseline uncertainty applies to both absolute and intensity based emissions targets. It is demonstrated that one advantage of intensity targets is reduced uncertainty in the projected baseline, however there will always be some residual uncertainty in model projections. To illustrate the importance of considering baseline uncertainty in GHG target setting, the Bush Climate Change Initiative is analyzed against its projected baseline as a case study of a modest intensity target. Based on comparison with historical data, the range of projections by major energy-economic models, past discrepancies in the accuracy of model projections and the added complexity of sector-specific drivers for non-CO₂ GHGs, it is shown that the Bush Initiative cannot be guaranteed or even expected to deliver actual reductions against an uncertain baseline. This finding emphasizes the importance of setting a target that accounts for baseline uncertainty to achieve genuine mitigation of GHG emissions.

Adaptation and mitigation as complementary tools for reducing the risk of climate impacts

This paper uses the likelihood of flooding along Brahmaputra and Ganges Rivers in India to explore the hypothesis that adaptation and mitigation can be viewed as complements rather than sustitutes. For futures where climate change will produce smooth, monotonic and manageable effects, adopting a mitigation strategy is shown to increase the ability of adaptation to reduce the likelihood of crossing critical threshold of tolerable climate. For futures where climate change will produce variable impacts overtime, though, it is possible that mitigation will make adaptation less productive for some time intervals. In cases of exaggerated climate change, adaptation may fail entirely regardless of how much mitigation is applied. Judging the degree of complementarity is therefore an empirical question because the relative efficacy of adaptation is site specific and path dependent. It follows that delibrations over climate policy should rely more on detailed analyses of how the distributions of possible impacts of climate might change over space and time.

基于全球调查数据的中国公众气候变化认知与政策研究

基于全球公众气候变化认知调查数据,分析我国公众对气候变化的了解程度、对气候变化影响的认知、担忧程度、以及个人应对气候变化的信心和意愿。结果表明:我国公众自我报告对气候变化的了解程度较高,约70%都声称不同程度地了解气候变化,但对导致气候变化的原因认知不一致;对气候变化的担忧程度较高,将气候变化看作是"非常严重"的问题或"非常担心"的占比近40%;应对气候变化的信心还需提高,但80%左右都声称愿意为气候变化支付更高成本。