Beyond Counting Climate Consensus

Several studies have been using quantified consensus within climate science as an argument to foster climate policy. Recent efforts to communicate such scientific consensus attained a high public profile but it is doubtful if they can be regarded successful. We argue that repeated efforts to shore up the scientific consensus on minimalist claims such as “humans cause global warming” are distractions from more urgent matters of knowledge, values, policy framing and public engagement. Such efforts to force policy progress through communicating scientific consensus misunderstand the relationship between scientific knowledge, publics and policymakers. More important is to focus on genuinely controversial issues within climate policy debates where expertise might play a facilitating role. Mobilizing expertise in policy debates calls for judgment, context and attention to diversity, rather than deferring to formal quantifications of narrowly scientific claims.     

Communication Practices and Political Engagement with Climate Change: A Research Agenda

In this article, we call for a refocusing of research on citizens’ political engagement with climate change. In doing so, we argue that communication practices not only help create the conditions for political engagement but they also comprise the modes of such engagement. Our argument proceeds in four steps. First, we review the literature on public engagement with climate change, concluding that there is a lack of attention to issues regarding the political. Consequently, we make the case for a refocusing of research on political engagement. Second, we explain how the notion of political subjectivity helps us to understand the relation between communication practices and engagement with the politics of climate change. Third, we discuss examples of dominant communication practices that constrain citizen political engagement by depoliticizing climate change, and alternative communication practices that have the potential to politicize. We end by outlining the many research questions that relate to the study of political engagement with climate change.     

Climate Change Reporting in Great Lakes Region Newspapers: A Comparative Study of the Use of Expert Sources

This study focuses on the use of science sources as experts in news stories about climate change coverage in the Great Lakes region of the US and Canada. We examine, using the hierarchy of influences model, whether the use of scientific sources in climate change coverage may be related to factors such as geographic location, reporting frequency, and authorship, in the prestige press as well as regional and local media. The study found that as many or more non-scientists than scientists are selected as sources regardless of geographic location, reporting frequency, or authorship. However, the study also found that the more stories reporters produce on this topic, the more likely their stories are to use and give prominence to science sources. In addition, the articles included few denier sources, but denier views are more likely to appear in a more prominent location in the articles than supporters when stories are framed as conflict over global warming. These results highlight the need for additional research examining the expertise of climate scientists in news stories to better understand news decision-making in the context of complex scientific reporting.     

Speed or deliberation: a comparison of post‐disaster recovery in Japan,Turkey, and Chile

This paper compares recovery in the wake of three recent earthquakes: the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011; the Van earthquake in Turkey in October 2011; and the Maule earthquake in Chile in February 2010. The authors visited all three locations approximately 12–18 months after the incidents and interviewed earthquake specialists, disaster managers, urban planners, and local authorities. A key challenge to post‐disaster recovery planning is balancing speed and deliberation. While affected communities must rebuild as quickly as possible, they must also seek to maximise the opportunities for improvement that disasters provide. The three case studies bring this dilemma into stark relief, as recovery was respectively slow, fast, and just right in the aftermath of the events: the Government of Japan adopted a deliberate approach to recovery and reconstruction; speed was of the essence in Turkey; and an effective balance between speed and deliberation was achieved in Chile.     

Decreasing the knowledge gap among different socioeconomic status groups on the issue of climate change

Climate change is causing severe negative consequences to small low-lying islands. To mitigate and adapt to climate change, it is important to improve public knowledge on its causes and consequences. As a social issue that needs collective action to address, the knowledge gap among different segments of population would be a barrier to people’s behaviors toward mitigation and adaption to climate change. This study aims to investigate public knowledge acquisition of climate change by revisiting the knowledge gap hypothesis. A nationally representative random computer-assisted telephone interview survey (N?=?1093) was conducted in Singapore. Quantitative analyses revealed that both newspaper reading and television viewing could reduce the knowledge gap between high and low socioeconomic status individuals. We recommend that governments and relevant authorities should utilize mass media to disseminate information and cultivate public understanding of climate change.     

Between adaptability and the urge to control: making long-term water policies in the Netherlands

Triggered by recent flood catastrophes and increasing concerns about climate change, scientists as well as policy-makers increasingly call for making long-term water policies to enable a transformation towards flood resilience. A key question is how to make these long-term policies adaptive so that they are able to deal with uncertainties and changing circumstances. The paper proposes three conditions for making long-term water policies adaptive, which are then used to evaluate a new Dutch water policy approach called ‘Adaptive Delta Management’. Analysing this national policy approach and its translation to the Rotterdam region reveals that Dutch policy-makers are torn between adaptability and the urge to control. Reflecting on this dilemma, the paper suggests a stronger focus on monitoring and learning to strengthen the adaptability of long-term water policies. Moreover, increasing the adaptive capacity of society also requires a stronger engagement with local stakeholders including citizens and businesses.     

Colorado River Floods, Droughts, and Shrimp Fishing in the Upper Gulf of California, Mexico

Accurate procedures that measure hydrologic variability would have great value for evaluating ecosystem impacts of upstream water use in the Colorado River Basin. Many local extractive income-based stakeholders rely directly or indirectly on ecosystem health and are adversely affected when the river does not flow. This study focuses on the impact of little or no Colorado River flow on the Mexican shrimp industry. Although there have been complaints that U.S. diversions of Colorado River flow have greatly impaired the shrimp fishery, this research demonstrates that freshwater rarely reaches the Gulf even during times of flooding, and that other factors such as overfishing may influence the instability of shrimp populations. Advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) satellite imagery was used to assess water volumes diverted away from the channel of the Colorado River and ultimately the Gulf of California during flooding periods. Analysis of data demonstrated that little freshwater actually reaches the Gulf even during floods because of its diversion into a large dry lake bed basin known as Laguna Salada. Fuller use of the Colorado River throughout its entire course to the sea is possible and could benefit a large cohort of users without catastrophic habitat destruction in delta ecosystems. Reconstruction of a natural earthen berm, as proposed by Ducks Unlimited, would maximize the use of floodwaters for ecosystem benefits. These findings have profound implications for local economic activities dependent on hydrologic resources in the Colorado River Delta and Upper Gulf.     

Towards a Formal Framework of Vulnerability to Climate Change

There is confusion regarding the notion of “vulnerability” in the climate change scientific community. Recent research has identified a need for formalisation, which would support accurate communication and the elimination of misunderstandings that result from the use of ambiguous terminology. Moreover, a formal framework of vulnerability is a prerequisite for computational approaches to its assessment. This paper presents an attempt at developing such a formal framework. We see vulnerability as a relative concept in the sense that accurate statements about vulnerability are possible only if one clearly specifies (1) the entity that is vulnerable, (2) the stimulus to which it is vulnerable and (3) the preference criteria to evaluate the outcome of the interaction between the entity and the stimulus. We relate the resulting framework to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change conceptualisation of vulnerability and two recent vulnerability studies. This paper is dedicated to the memory of Gerhard Petschel-Held, whose pioneering work on syndromes of global change has been a source of inspiration for us and for others across various schools of thought on vulnerability.     

Impacts of climate warming on reindeer herding require new land-use strategies

Climate in the Arctic has warmed at a more rapid pace than the global average over the past few decades leading to weather, snow, and ice situations previously unencountered. Reindeer herding is one of the primary livelihoods for Indigenous peoples throughout the Arctic. To understand how the new climate state forces societal adaptation, including new management strategies and needs for preserved, interconnected, undisturbed grazing areas, we coupled changes in temperature, precipitation, and snow depth recorded by automatic weather stations to herder observations of reindeer behaviour in grazing areas of the Laevas Sámi reindeer herding community, northern Sweden. Results show that weather and snow conditions strongly determine grazing opportunities and therefore reindeer response. We conclude that together with the cumulative effects of increased pressures from alternative land use activities, the non-predictable environmental conditions that are uniquely part of the warming climate seriously challenge future reindeer herding in northern Sweden.     

Structural changes in lake functioning induced from nutrient loading and climate variability

Climate variability is increasingly recognized as an important regulatory factor, capable of influencing the structural properties of aquatic ecosystems. Lakes appear to be particularly sensitive to the ecological impacts of climate variability, and several long time series have shown a close coupling between climate, lake thermal properties and individual organism physiology, population abundance, community structure, and food web dynamics. Thus, understanding the complex interplay among meteorological forcing, hydrological variability, and ecosystem functioning is essential for improving the credibility of model-based water resources/fisheries management. Our objective herein is to examine the relative importance of the ecological mechanisms underlying plankton seasonal variability in Lake Washington, Washington State (USA), over a 35-year period (1964–1998). Our analysis is founded upon an intermediate complexity plankton model that is used to reproduce the limiting nutrient (phosphate)–phytoplankton–zooplankton–detritus (particulate phosphorus) dynamics in the lake. Model parameterization is based on a Bayesian calibration scheme that offers insights into the degree of information the data contain about model inputs and allows obtaining predictions along with uncertainty bounds for modeled output variables. The model accurately reproduces the key seasonal planktonic patterns in Lake Washington and provides realistic estimates of predictive uncertainty for water quality variables of environmental management interest. A principal component analysis of the annual estimates of the underlying ecological processes highlighted the significant role of the phosphorus recycling stemming from the zooplankton excretion on the planktonic food web variability. We also identified a moderately significant signature of the local climatic conditions (air temperature) on phytoplankton growth (r = 0.41), herbivorous grazing (r = 0.38), and detritus mineralization (r = 0.39). Our study seeks linkages with the conceptual food web model proposed by Hampton et al. [Hampton, S.E., Scheuerell, M.D., Schindler, D.E., 2006b. Coalescence in the Lake Washington story: interaction strengths in a planktonic food web. Limnol. Oceanogr. 51, 2042–2051.] to emphasize the “bottom-up” control of the Lake Washington plankton phenology. The posterior predictive distributions of the plankton model are also used to assess the exceedance frequency and confidence of compliance with total phosphorus (15 μg L⁻¹) and chlorophyll a (4 μg L⁻¹) threshold levels during the summer-stratified period in Lake Washington. Finally, we conclude by underscoring the importance of explicitly acknowledging the uncertainty in ecological forecasts to the management of freshwater ecosystems under a changing global environment.