Climate Variability and Environmental Stress in the Sudan-Sahel Zone of West Africa

Environmental change in the Sudan-Sahel region of West Africa (SSWA) has been much debated since the droughts of the 1970s. In this article we assess climate variability and environmental stress in the region. Households in Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria were asked about climatic changes and their perceptions were compared across north–south and west–east rainfall gradients. More than 80% of all households found that rainfall had decreased, especially in the wettest areas. Increases in wind speeds and temperature were perceived by an overall 60–80% of households. Contrary to household perceptions, observed rainfall patterns showed an increasing trend over the past 20 years. However, August rainfall declined, and could therefore potentially explain the contrasting negative household perceptions of rainfall trends. Most households reported degradation of soils, water resources, vegetation, and fauna, but more so in the 500–900 mm zones. Adaptation measures to counter environmental degradation included use of manure, reforestation, soil and water conservation, and protection of fauna and vegetation. The results raise concerns for future environmental management in the region, especially in the 500–900 mm zones and the western part of SSWA.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

A methodology for estimating health benefits of electricity generation using renewable technologies

At Copenhagen, the developed countries agreed to provide up to $100 bn per year to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation by developing countries. Projects aimed at cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to be evaluated against dual criteria: from the viewpoint of the developed countries they must cut emissions of GHGs at reasonable cost, while host countries will assess their contribution to development, or simply their overall economic benefits. Co-benefits of some types of project will also be of interest to host countries: for example some projects will contribute to reducing air pollution, thus improving the health of the local population.This paper uses a simple damage function methodology to quantify some of the health co-benefits of replacing coal-fired generation with wind or small hydro in China. We estimate the monetary value of these co-benefits and find that it is probably small compared to the added costs. We have not made a full cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy in China as some likely co-benefits are omitted from our calculations. Our results are subject to considerable uncertainty however, after careful consideration of their likely accuracy and comparisons with other studies, we believe that they provide a good first cut estimate of co-benefits and are sufficiently robust to stand as a guide for policy makers.In addition to these empirical results, a key contribution made by the paper is to demonstrate a simple and reasonably accurate methodology for health benefits estimation that applies the most recent academic research in the field to the solution of an increasingly important problem.     

Observed cold season changes in a Fennoscandian fell area over the past three decades

We studied trends and variability in snow and climate characteristics in 1978–2012 in the Värriötunturit fell area, northern Finland. Cold season changes were examined using long-term observational data on snow depths, meteorological data, large-scale climate indices, and reindeer herders’ experiences with difficult snow conditions. Snow depths declined, and temperatures increased significantly over the study period, with the largest changes observed in October–December and in April. Snow depths decreased particularly in forests at lower altitudes but not in treeless areas at higher altitudes. Interannual variability (but not the trends) in snow depths could be partially linked to large-scale climate indices. A majority of difficult reindeer grazing conditions were related to deep snow in the winter or spring. Our observations suggest that shortened duration of snow cover may facilitate reindeer grazing, whereas potentially more frequent formation of ice layers and mold growth on pastures in the future is disadvantageous for reindeer husbandry.     

Integral assessment of climate impact on the transboundary Mesta River flow formation in Bulgaria

The present work considers the section of the Mesta River on Bulgarian territory using the integral method for evaluation of climate and anthropogenic impact on the river flow. The level of this impact is determined by the index K _i (flow module), the coefficient C _i for the deviation of the average annual water volume Q _i from the flow norm Q _o and the index h _i for the deviation of the average annual rainfall volume H _i from the average multi-annual rainfall volume H _o . The dynamics of the average annual flow Q _i at two typical hydrometric stations – Yakoruda and Khadzhidimovo, as well as the dynamics of the average annual rainfall for the Yakoruda station was examined for the period 1955–2003. The data for the considered period 1955–2003 exhibit a decreasing trend of the average annual water volumes dynamics for both stations due to the impact of climate changes in the Mesta River catchment.     

Crown condition dynamics of oak in southern Sweden 1988’999

Crown defoliation of oak (Quercus robur and Q. petraea) was analysed in 808 trees during three forest condition surveys (1988, 1993, and 1999) in the southern Sweden. From 1988 to 1999 crown defoliation increased by more than 20%. Changes in crown defoliation were related to the pH in the upper 20–30 cm of the mineral soils, which was closely connected to other measures of soil fertility (cation exchange capacity, CEC and C/N ratio). Trees growing on soils with a high pH (≥4.00, in BaCl₂ filtrate), high CEC and low C/N ratio had significantly lower crown defoliation than trees growing on more acid soils (pH <4.00), indicating that less favourable soil conditions may further enhance oak decline. Age did not differentiate trees with respect to crown defoliation, indicating that decline in crown condition was not due to an age-related increase in crown transparency. Considering only trees younger than 100 years, a significant interaction was observed between changes in crown defoliation and soil pH. Trees younger than 100 years old growing on more acidic soils had a greater increase in crown transparency than trees on more basic soils between 1988 and 1999. Trees ≥100 years old had significantly higher defoliation on more acidic than on more basic soils, however defoliation dynamics of these trees over 1988–99 was not related to soil acidity. Two biotic agents (insect and fungal leaf infections) evaluated in this study did not prove to be important drivers of defoliation dynamics.     

Peat soils as a source of lead contamination to upland fluvial systems

Upland peat soils are generally regarded as effective sinks of atmospherically deposited lead. However, the physical process of erosion has the potential to transform peat soils from sinks to sources of lead contamination. Lead input and fluvial lead outputs (dissolved+particulate) were estimated for a contaminated and severely eroding peatland catchment in the southern Pennines, UK. Lead input to the catchment is 30.0+/-6.0gha(-1)a(-1) and the output from the catchment is 317+/-22.4gha(-1)a(-1). Suspended particulate matter accounts for 85% of lead export. Contaminated peat soils of the catchment are a significant source of lead to the fluvial system. This study has demonstrated strong coupling between the physical process of erosion and the mobilization of lead into the fluvial system. The process of peat erosion should therefore be considered when estimating lead outputs from peatland catchments, especially in the context of climate change.     

Sensitivity of agricultural runoff loads to rising levels of CO2 and climate change in the San Joaquin Valley watershed of California

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to assess the impact of climate change on sediment, nitrate, phosphorus and pesticide (diazinon and chlorpyrifos) runoff in the San Joaquin watershed in California. This study used modeling techniques that include variations of CO₂, temperature, and precipitation to quantify these responses. Precipitation had a greater impact on agricultural runoff compared to changes in either CO₂ concentration or temperature. Increase of precipitation by ±10% and ±20% generally changed agricultural runoff proportionally. Solely increasing CO₂ concentration resulted in an increase in nitrate, phosphorus, and chlorpyrifos yield by 4.2, 7.8, and 6.4%, respectively, and a decrease in sediment and diazinon yield by 6.3 and 5.3%, respectively, in comparison to the present-day reference scenario. Only increasing temperature reduced yields of all agricultural runoff components. The results suggest that agricultural runoff in the San Joaquin watershed is sensitive to precipitation, temperature, and CO₂ concentration changes.     

Combined effects of elevated CO2 and natural climatic variation on leaf spot diseases of redbud and sweetgum trees

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are predicted to double within the next century and alter climate regimes, yet the extent that these changes will affect plant diseases remains unclear. In this study conducted over five years, we assessed how elevated CO₂ and interannual climatic variability affect Cercospora leaf spot diseases of two deciduous trees. Climatic data varied considerably between the five years and altered disease expression. Disease incidence and severity for both species were greater in years with above average rainfall. In years with above average temperatures, disease incidence for Liquidambar styraciflua was decreased significantly. When significant changes did occur, disease incidence and severity always increased under elevated CO₂. Chlorophyll fluorescence imaging of leaves revealed that any visible increase in disease severity induced by elevated CO₂ was mitigated by higher photosynthetic efficiency in the remaining undamaged leaf tissue and in a halo surrounding lesions.     

A Richer,Greener and Smaller Alpine World: Review and Projection of Warming-Induced Plant Cover Change in the Swedish Scandes

Alpine plant life is proliferating, biodiversity is on the rise and the mountain world appears more productive and inviting than ever. Upper range margin rise of trees and low-altitude (boreal) plant species, expansion of alpine grasslands and dwarf-shrub heaths are the modal biotic adjustments during the past few decades, after a century of substantial climate warming in the Swedish Scandes. This course of biotic landscape evolution has reached historical dimensions and broken a multi-millennial trend of plant cover retrogression, alpine tundra expansion, floristic and faunal impoverishment, all imposed by progressive and deterministic neoglacial climate cooling. Continued modest warming over the present century will likely be beneficial to alpine biodiversity, geoecological stability, resilience, sustainable reindeer husbandry and aesthetic landscape qualities. These aspects are highlighted by an integrative review of results from long-term monitoring of subalpine/alpine vegetation in the Swedish Scandes. This forms the basis for some tentative projections of landscape transformations in a potentially warmer future. Notably, these results and projections are not necessarily valid in other regions and differ in some respects from model predictions. Continued monitoring is mandatory as a basis for generation of more realistic vegetation and ecosystem models.