Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change

Individuals, businesses, and policymakers face the problem of selecting a preferred strategy for adapting a managed ecosystem to future climate change when there is risk and/or uncertainty about future climate change and its ecosystem impacts, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies (i.e., performance of an adaptive strategy given a particular future climate change scenario occurs). Evaluation methods for this purpose are described for two cases; one in which the decision-maker can (climate risk case) and cannot (climate uncertainty case) assign probabilities to future climate change scenarios. Fuzzy sets are used to characterize uncertainty regarding both future climate change, and the conditional outcomes of adaptive strategies. The preferred conditional adaptive strategy for a future climate change scenario is determined by ordering the adaptive strategies for that scenario using a fuzzy set operation. Two methods are described for determining the adaptive strategy that is preferred across all climate change scenarios. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate risk case is determined by maximizing a performance index for strategies. The preferred overall adaptive strategy for the climate uncertainty case is determined using the minimax regret criterion, which selects the strategy that minimizes the maximum loss in performance that can occur across all strategies and climate change scenarios. Ways for making the evaluation methods dynamic are considered.     

The century of biology: three views

The claim that the twenty-first century will be the century of biology could turn out to be true in three very different ways. One view is that developments in biotechnology will help to treat diseases and improve life. Another view is that changes in the biosphere will lead to extreme scarcity and endanger billions of humans. A third view is that biotechnology and climate change will further bifurcate the world into people with good health prospects and people with poor health prospects. I describe these views and show how they involve different accounts of the ethical issues that we will face and the ethical virtues that we will need to cultivate.     

The science and politics of co-benefits in climate policy

The co-benefits concept implies a ‘win–win’ strategy to address two or more goals with a single policy measure. There is much scholarly and policy attention paid to this concept as a way to avoid making trade-offs between developmental and environmental issues. However, there is no review paper that reviews the nature, evolution, strengths and limits of the co-benefits concept in relation to climate change. Hence, this review article addresses the question: What does the literature tell us about the definition, application and use of the co-benefits concept? Using a literature review approach, this article explains the evolution of the co-benefits concept and its strengths and weaknesses. We conclude that while the concept has tremendous advocacy potential in dealing with the problem that the costs and benefits of climate policy are temporally and spatially not aligned, its de facto potential is limited as mostly economists have engaged with this concept, and there is little trans-disciplinary work undertaken that also looks at the politics and institutional aspects of co-benefits. The article thus provides an impetus to rethink current approaches to studying co-benefits and points to the need for inter- and trans-disciplinary research drawing on economic, political and social sciences.     

Managing climate change risks in New York City’s water system: assessment and adaptation planning

Managing risk by adapting long-lived infrastructure to the effects of climate change must become a regular part of planning for water supply, sewer, wastewater treatment, and other urban infrastructure during this century. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City’s (NYC) water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems, has developed a climate risk management framework through its Climate Change Task Force, a government-university collaborative effort. Its purpose is to ensure that NYCDEP’s strategic and capital planning take into account the potential risks of climate change—sea-level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, changes in drought and flood frequency and intensity, and changing precipitation patterns—on NYC’s water systems. This approach will enable NYCDEP and other agencies to incorporate adaptations to the risks of climate change into their management, investment, and policy decisions over the long term as a regular part of their planning activities. The framework includes a 9-step Adaptation Assessment procedure. Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed by their relevance in terms of climate change time-frame (immediate, medium, and long term), the capital cycle, costs, and other risks. The approach focuses on the water supply, sewer, and wastewater treatment systems of NYC, but has wide application for other urban areas, especially those in coastal locations.     

Climate policy integration in the land use sector: Mitigation,adaptation and sustainable development linkages

This article re-conceptualizes Climate Policy Integration (CPI) in the land use sector to highlight the need to assess the level of integration of mitigation and adaptation objectives and policies to minimize trade-offs and to exploit synergies. It suggests that effective CPI in the land use sector requires i) internal climate policy coherence between mitigation and adaptation objectives and policies; ii) external climate policy coherence between climate change and development objectives; iii) vertical policy integration to mainstream climate change into sectoral policies and; iv) horizontal policy integration by overarching governance structures for cross-sectoral coordination. This framework is used to examine CPI in the land use sector of Indonesia. The findings indicate that adaptation actors and policies are the main advocates of internal policy coherence. External policy coherence between mitigation and development planning is called for, but remains to be operationalized. Bureaucratic politics has in turn undermined vertical and horizontal policy integration. Under these circumstances it is unlikely that the Indonesian bureaucracy can deliver strong coordinated action addressing climate change in the land use sector, unless sectoral ministries internalize a strong mandate on internal and external climate policy coherence and find ways to coordinate policy action effectively.     

An ecosystem-based resilience analysis of Infanta,Philippines

An exploratory study is conducted to assess the resilience of Infanta through an analysis of its ecosystems from ecological, physical, economic, social and institutional perspectives. Recognizing the strong interdependencies of ecological, physical, economic, social and institutional dimensions in ecosystems and that community-level perceptions can shape adaptation actions, a survey is conducted in 36 village councils in Infanta, Quezon, Philippines utilizing a questionnaire covering 5 dimensions, 25 parameters and 125 measures selected based on the local context of Infanta to gain an understanding of the level of resilience in mountain, riverine, urban, agricultural plain, estuarine and coastal ecosystems. Results show that overall resilience levels of ecosystems lie between 3.08 (medium resilience) and 3.26 (high resilience) on a scale of 1–5. However, resilience scores in the five dimensions vary from 2.57 (low resilience) to 3.51 (high resilience). On the whole, overall resilience levels in the 36 villages exhibit high levels in the social dimension and low levels in the economic dimension. By assessing the resilience of ecosystems as attempted in this study, a baseline is determined where entry points for adaptation actions that are responsive to prevailing ecosystem conditions can be identified, positive and negative factors addressed and gaps and opportunities acted upon to enhance the resilience of Infanta's ecosystems.     

Climate, entropy and environment

The IPCC Working Groups I–III 2007 publications does not consider the question of the influence of the entropy increase in the atmosphere on current climate development. An investigation into this question, both in general terms as well as by two quantitative approaches, reveals we must consider the entropy produced by man in connection with climate development, especially with regard to the temperature increase of the atmosphere. The IPCC report also fails to mention the production of CO₂ by humans and livestock, but calculations show we must also consider such greenhouse gas CO₂ production. For solving the mitigating processes, we therefore have to take into account both the human induced entropy production and the direct human and livestock CO₂ output. In consideration of these findings, it seems necessary to introduce an “entropy identity” to people who wish to be able to continue to live on the planet. The introduction of an entropy tax might also help in solving the most urgent fundamental problem humanity has ever had to face. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

Perceptions of behaviors that cause and mitigate global warming and intentions to perform these behaviors

Individual household and travel behaviors represent a sizeable contribution to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates people's knowledge of these behaviors and perceptions of these behaviors' impact in causing and mitigating climate change. In the present study, a sample of college students were asked to list the behaviors they perform that cause global warming (GW) and the behaviors they could perform to mitigate GW, to rate the impact of the behaviors in terms of their effect on causing or mitigating GW, and to rate their intention to perform each of the behaviors. Results revealed that this sample was well aware of the effect of driving on GW. However, participants underestimated the relative impact of adjusting the thermostat and eating meat on GW and overestimated the impact of littering on causing GW. Although knowledge about GW-mitigating behaviors was not consistently related to behavioral intention, belief that a behavior mitigated GW (whether accurate or not) was strongly related to intention to perform that behavior. Specifically, correlations between belief in the mitigating potential of a behavior and intention were relatively high for adjusting the thermostat, reducing meat consumption, and several behaviors that do not mitigate GW, but were relatively low for reducing driving and not littering. Practical implications and comparisons with previous literature are discussed.     

Weather,salience of climate change and congressional voting

Climate change is a complex long-run phenomenon. The speed and severity with which it is occurring is difficult to observe, complicating the formation of beliefs for individuals. We use Google search intensity data as a proxy for the salience of climate change and examine how search patterns vary with unusual local weather. We find that searches for “climate change” and “global warming” increase with extreme temperatures and unusual lack of snow. Furthermore, we demonstrate that effects of abnormal weather extend beyond search behavior to observable action on environmental issues. We examine the voting records of members of the U.S. Congress from 2004 to 2011 and find that members are more likely to take a pro-environment stance on votes when their home state experiences unusual weather.