1995年气候对交通系统的影响

根据气象部门和交通部门的资料，对１９９５年气候条件对我国交通系统造成的影响进行了分析评述，其中影响最大的是暴雨洪水，其它气候灾害还有雾、雪、风及高温等，使我们对影响交通系统的气候灾害有了进一步的认识。     

Implications of sea level rise for coastal dune habitat conservation in Wales,UK

The potential impact of future sea level rise and climate change on 15 Welsh coastal dune systems has been investigated. Historical Trend Analysis was undertaken using Ordnance Survey maps to quantify past shoreline change and to permit extrapolation of past trends to predict possible future shoreline positions by 2080–2100. Predictions were also made using the Bruun Rule relationship between sea level rise and shoreline response and an integrated method of assessment, Expert Geomorphological Assessment (EGA), which provides a ‘best estimate’ of future coastline change, taking into account such factors as geological constraints, the nature of past, present and future environmental forcing factors, and known coastal process–response relationships. The majority of the 15 systems investigated experienced a net increase in dune area over the last 100–120 years. Only one (Whiteford Burrows) experienced significant net area loss (>5 ha). EGA predictions suggest that several systems are likely to experience significant net loss of dune habitat over the next century, whilst continued net gain is likely to occur for systems where sediment supply rates remain high. Little net change is predicted in some systems. Considering the 15 dune systems together, it is considered unlikely that net dune habitat loss will exceed net gain over the next 100 years provided that there are no major disruptions to sediment supply and natural coastal processes.     

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid(TSS) and nutrient(nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover(LULC)change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama,USA. Four Global Circulation Models(GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios(SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change(2016–2040). Three projected LULC maps(2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT).Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen(TN) and Total Phosphorous(TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease,mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay.     

Community based initiatives to mainstream climate change adaptation into disaster risk reduction: evidence from the Hunter Valley (Australia)

In Australia, local communities often enact Community-Based Initiatives (CBIs) to respond to climate change through Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). CBIs can also be integrated into the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) agenda. The paper explores the extent to which CBIs promote the mainstreaming of CCA into DRR. Primary data were obtained from interviews with representatives of CBIs and supporting organisations in three local governments of the Hunter Valley (New South Wales, Australia). Findings show that CBIs recognise the potential contribution of climate change in modifying the local hazard profile. CBIs mainstream CCA into DRR by following four approaches: environmental and social justice; sustainability and transition; ecosystem-based approach; and adaptive planning. Partnerships were identified both among CBIs and between CBIs and City Councils; however, conflicts between CBIs, City Councils and business actors emerged, and a lack of commitment by multi-level governments in responding to climate change was revealed. The findings show that CBIs consider CCA and DRR within a broad everyday context related to vulnerability and local development. But we argue that assigning responsibility for climate change issues to CBIs is not a panacea and should not be the only local climate change response. Instead, CBIs need to be included in a larger and long-term commitment by actors that possess access to resources, such as higher levels of government. The paper provides a local Australian perspective on the effectiveness of mainstreaming CCA into DRR and furthers the conversation for the benefit of other communities facing similar challenges.     

Place,human agency and community resilience – considerations for public health management of smoke from prescribed burning

Prescribed burning is now a widely accepted bushfire hazard management strategy. While evidence points to reduced levels of public health harm compared to severe bushfire, smoke created by planned burns remains a community concern with need for evidence-based public health management. Findings are presented from an Australian study of community experiences of prescribed burns, associated smoke, and public health communications. We find that “place” influences how information is received and used for the management of the effects of planned burns; and that this is significant for human agency and community resilience. We provide recommendations for public health management.     

“Housing for all” at the era of financialization; can (post-disaster) cities become truly socially resilient and egalitarian?

This paper examines the realism of the resilience ambition and process of the U.S. housing system, shedding light on its heterogeneity as well as the financialization currently acting as the driving force in real estate production. The resilience ambition leading to enhanced justice and egalitarianism is understood as the provision and maintenance of post-disaster housing for all within an institutionally diverse landscape of housing policy makers and implementers. Particular emphasis is given to the post-Katrina institutional transformations resulting from multifarious interactions between multilevel institutional structures and a diverse landscape of low-income housing policy implementers – referred as social resilience cells (SRCs) in this paper. The nature and level of these transformations determine the degree to which resilience in its heterogeneous form has been incubated in New Orleans. The paper concludes with a discussion on the macro conditions and bottom-linked governance structures under which all SRCs could be better bolstered in a post-financialization, radicalised neowelfare U.S., and which in turn create possibilities for materialising the resilience ambition.     

Modeling the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on soil CO2 fluxes from a Switchgrass stand recently converted from cropland

Switchgrass(Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial C_4 grass native to North America and successfully adapted to diverse environmental conditions. It offers the potential to reduce soil surface carbon dioxide(CO_2) fluxes and mitigate climate change. However, information on how these CO_2 fluxes respond to changing climate is still lacking. In this study, CO_2 fluxes were monitored continuously from 2011 through 2014 using high frequency measurements from Switchgrass land seeded in 2008 on an experimental site that has been previously used for soybean(Glycine max L.) in South Dakota, USA. DAYCENT, a process-based model, was used to simulate CO_2 fluxes. An improved methodology CPTE[Combining Parameter estimation(PEST) with "Trial and Error" method] was used to calibrate DAYCENT. The calibrated DAYCENT model was used for simulating future CO_2 emissions based on different climate change scenarios. This study showed that:(i) the measured soil CO_2 fluxes from Switchgrass land were higher for 2012 which was a drought year, and these fluxes when simulated using DAYCENT for long-term(2015–2070) provided a pattern of polynomial curve;(ii) the simulated CO_2 fluxes provided different patterns with temperature and precipitation changes in a long-term,(iii) the future CO_2 fluxes from Switchgrass land under different changing climate scenarios were not significantly different, therefore, it can be concluded that Switchgrass grown for longer durations could reduce changes in CO_2 fluxes from soil as a result of temperature and precipitation changes to some extent.     

区域水灾恢复力及水灾风险管理研究——以湖南省洞庭湖区为例

近年来灾害恢复力研究在领域的拓展和定义的延伸等方面取得了较大的进步。灾害恢复力作为系统的一个有价值的属性，与风险、脆弱性和适应性一起成为当前灾害综合管理和减灾研究的重要内容。但目前灾害恢复力研究仍停留在理论和概念层面，鲜有深入的实际操作性强的工作开展。为进一步理解水灾恢复力的内涵和实质，为区域恢复力建设提供切实可行的方案，作者在原有对灾害恢复力研究进展进行综述的基础上，开展了以湖南省洞庭湖区为例的洪水高风险区水灾恢复力理论和实践的研究，提出了由自然维、经济维、组织维、社会维组成的四维区域水灾恢复力概念模型，然后细致分析了区域水灾恢复力利益主体的相互关系，提供了初步的区域水灾恢复力评估模型。最后在定性分析的基础上，对洞庭湖区区域水灾风险管理进行了探讨，提出了相应的管理对策和建议，旨在为政府的防灾减灾决策提供科学依据。     

Plant Community Structure in Relation to Long-Term Disturbance by Mechanized Military Maneuvers in a Semiarid Region

/ Mechanized military maneuvers are an intensive form of disturbance to plant communities in large areas throughout the world. Tracking by heavy vehicles can cause direct mortality and indirectly affect plant communities through soil compaction and by altering competitive relationships. We assessed the long-term condition of structural attributes of open woodland, grassland, and shrubland communities at Fort Carson, Colorado, in relation to levels of disturbance and soil texture. Covariate analyses were used to help separate the directional forcings by the chronic disturbance from the regenerative capacities in order to assess the relative resistance and resilience of the communities and to determine whether the continual disturbance-recovery processes balanced under current levels of utilization. All three communities responded differently to disturbance. In open woodlands, altered understory/overstory relationships were suggested by increased grass, forb, shrub, and total vegetation cover and smaller decreases in shorter than taller woody species with increasing levels of disturbance. Grassland communities generally displayed greater responses to disturbance than other communities, but temporal dynamics were often similar, indicating relatively less resistance but greater resilience of this community. Weed and exotic species increased both temporally and in relation to levels of disturbance in all three community types. Temporal trends in community-level indices of dissimilarity and diversity also indicate that rates of disturbance were greater than rates of recovery. Few variables were related to within-community differences in soil texture. While total aerial cover was temporally stable, changes in species composition and in basal cover in grasslands and shrublands suggest increasing erosion potential.     

THE HUDSON BAY AIR MASS TYPE–SOME CLIMATOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS

A substantial percentage of days with below normal temperatures in central Illinois during May and June (1956-1965) appear to be associated with polar air masses which traverse the Hudson Bay area before entering the Midwest. January departures, in contrast, are related to polar air masses that enter the United States near the Mackenzie River in western Canada. The general influences of the Hudson Bay area on climate are discussed.