Analysing countries’ contribution to climate change: scientific and policy-related choices

This paper evaluates the influence of different policy-related and scientific choices on the calculated regional contributions to global climate change (the “Brazilian Proposal”). Policy-related choices include the time period of emissions, the mix of greenhouse gases and different indicators of climate change impacts. The scientific choices include historical emissions and model representations of the climate system. We generated and compared results of several simple climate models. We find that the relative contributions of different nations to global climate change—from emissions of greenhouse gases alone—are quite robust, despite the varying model complexity and differences in calculated absolute changes. For the default calculations, the average calculated contributions to the global mean surface temperature increase in 2000 are about 40% from OECD, 14% from Eastern Europe and Former Soviet Union, 24% from Asia and 22% from Africa and Latin America. Policy-related choices, such as time period of emissions, climate change indicator and gas mix generally have larger influence on the results than scientific choices. More specifically, choosing a later attribution start date (1990 instead of 1890) for historical emissions, decreases the contributions of regions that started emitting early, such as the OECD countries by 6 percentage points, whereas it increases the contribution of late emitters such as Asia by 8 percentage points. However, only including the fossil CO₂ emissions instead of the emissions of all Kyoto gases (fossil and land use change), increases the OECD contributions by 21 percentage points and decreases the contribution of Asia by 14 percentage points.     

History of equatorial vegetation fires and fire research in Southeast Asia before the 1997–98 episode: A reconstruction of creeping environmental changes

Charcoal fragments in forest soils give evidence of prehistoric and historic natural and anthropogenic wildfires in the equatorial rainforests and in seasonal monsoon forests of continental and insular South Asia. Conditions favourable for the occurrence of historic and contemporary rainforest fires are associated with droughts, especially during dry spells caused by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event. Historic land-use fires and wildfires can be reconstructed from a number of narrative reports, including documents that reveal drought and famine. In the eastern part of Borneo prehistoric and historic records of coal fires reveal a unique natural source of wildfires. Starting with modern transmigration programs and systematic conversion of primary and secondary vegetation, including peat-swamp ecosystems, into farmland and industrial plantations, the use of fire as a land-clearing tool escalated in the 1990s. During droughts land-clearing fires additionally contribute to wildfires. A detailed study of the ecological consequences of the episode of land-use fires and wildfires of 1982–1983 was conducted on an area of 2.7 million ha of dipterocarp rainforest in East Kalimantan. The results show that dipterocarps are highly susceptible to fire and are replaced by pioneers and fire-tolerant species that occupy the disturbed sites or survive the immediate fire effects. Smoke from forest conversion burning caused considerable environmental problems, reducing visibility and affecting human health and security. Emissions from vegetation burning influence chemistry and functioning of the global atmosphere. The situation is different in those parts of mainland and insular Southeast Asia that are characterized by seasonal climate. Through long-term influence of climate variability, fire influence, and anthropogenic pressure the vegetation is better adapted to extrinsic stresses. During the 15 years between the extreme ENSO events and fire episodes of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 the national and international communities have been alerted and prepared to respond to the escalating fire situation in Indonesia. The response to the onset of the 1997–1998 fire and smoke episode, however, was absolutely inadequate and erratic. Meanwhile a whole continent – the maritime continent of Southeast Asia – has been degraded by excessive fire application for more than 20 years.     

Combined and synergistic effects of climate change and urbanization on water quality in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama

This study investigated potential changes in flow, total suspended solid(TSS) and nutrient(nitrogen and phosphorous) loadings under future climate change, land use/cover(LULC)change and combined change scenarios in the Wolf Bay watershed, southern Alabama,USA. Four Global Circulation Models(GCMs) under three Special Report Emission Scenarios(SRES) of greenhouse gas were used to assess the future climate change(2016–2040). Three projected LULC maps(2030) were employed to reflect different extents of urbanization in future. The individual, combined and synergistic impacts of LULC and climate change on water quantity/quality were analyzed by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT).Under the "climate change only" scenario, monthly distribution and projected variation of TSS are expected to follow a pattern similar to streamflow. Nutrients are influenced both by flow and management practices. The variation of Total Nitrogen(TN) and Total Phosphorous(TP) generally follow the flow trend as well. No evident difference in the N:P ratio was projected. Under the "LULC change only" scenario, TN was projected to decrease,mainly due to the shrinkage of croplands. TP will increase in fall and winter. The N:P ratio shows a strong decreasing potential. Under the "combined change" scenario, LULC and climate change effect were considered simultaneously. Results indicate that if future loadings are expected to increase/decrease under any individual scenario, then the combined change will intensify that trend. Conversely, if their effects are in opposite directions, an offsetting effect occurs. Science-based management practices are needed to reduce nutrient loadings to the Bay.     

Response of the bird cherry-oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi) to climate change in relation to its pest status, vectoring potential and function in a crop-vector-virus pathosystem

Global climate change threatens world food production via direct effects on plant growth and alterations to pest and pathogen prevalence and distribution. Complex relationships between host plant, pest, pathogen and environment create uncertainty particularly involving vector-borne diseases. We attempt to improve the understanding of the effects of climate change via a detailed review of one crop-vector-pathogen system.The bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi, is a global pest of cereals and vector of yellow dwarf viruses that cause significant crop losses in cereals. R. padi exhibits both sexual and parthenogenetic reproduction, alternating between crops and other host plants. In Australia, only parthenogenesis occurs due to the absence of the primary host, thus the aphid continuously cycles from grasses to cereals, allowing for continuous virus acquisition and transmission.We have reviewed the potential impact of future climate projections on R. padi population dynamics, persistence, abundance, dispersal and migration events as well as the interactions between vector, virus, crop and environment, all of which are critical to the behaviour and development of the vector and its ability to transmit the virus. We identify a number of knowledge gaps that currently limit efforts to determine how this pathosystem will function in a future climate.     

全球气候变化谈判及中国应对策略

气候变化作为一个全球性问题,不仅需要单个国家和地区采取行动,更需要国际社会的共同合作。全球气候变化谈判的现状如何,中国又将做出何种外交应对,成为世人关心的重大国际问题之一。本文阐述了全球气候变化谈判现状,总结了主要国家应对气候变化的立场及措施,最后分析了中国在全球气候变化谈判中遇到的挑战以及给出了将来应对气候变化谈判的策略。     

Re-thinking water policy priorities in the Mediterranean region in view of climate change

Water is scarce in Mediterranean countries: cities are crowded with increasing demand; food is produced with large amounts of water; ecosystems demand more water that is often available; drought affects all. As climate change impacts become more noticeable and costlier, some current water management strategies will not be useful. According to the findings of CIRCE, the areas with limited water resources will increase in the coming decades with major consequences for the way we produce food and we protect ecosystems. Based on these projections this paper discusses water policy priorities for climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean. We first summarise the main challenges to water resources in Mediterranean countries and outline the risks and opportunities for water under climate change based on previous studies. Recognising the difficulty to go from precipitation to water policy, we then present a framework to evaluate water availability in response to natural and management conditions, with an example of application in the Ebro basin that exemplifies other Mediterranean areas. Then we evaluate adaptive capacity to understand the ability of Mediterranean countries to face, respond and recover from climate change impacts on water resources. Social and economic factors are key drivers of inequality in the adaptive capacity across the region. Based on the assessment of impacts and adaptive capacity we suggest thresholds for water policy to respond to climate change and link water scarcity indicators to relevant potential adaptation strategies. Our results suggest the need to further prioritise socially and economically sensitive policies.     

Assessment of future scenarios of climate and land-use changes in the IMPRINTS test-bed areas

The main objective of this work is to identify and evaluate the potential impacts produced by climate and land-use changes in six European test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d’Anduze, Linth, Verzasca and Sambuco). Data to build future scenarios that can modify the different basins’ flash flood and debris flow risk level has been analyzed in this paper. High resolution climate scenarios have been obtained from several European projects and/or National initiatives, depending on each case. Climatic variables have been widely analyzed, with a special focus on extreme precipitation. Typical generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions have been fitted to observed and projected rainfall data to assess impacts in the frequency distributions of extreme rainfall up to 2100. Regarding climate, the main conclusion is the importance of using data at the maximum spatial and temporal resolution applying downscaling methodologies adapted to basin scale (test-bed areas ranging from approx 200 to 5000 km²) and oriented to obtain extreme rainfall values.In general, high variability has been detected, obtaining very different results for the different models and scenarios. Data corrections may lead to better representations of present situations and, therefore, more reliable future projections, but currently some of them are not suitable for extreme precipitation assessment.Regarding land-use changes, a cellular automata-based model has been used (MOLAND) to simulate the 2000–2040 period taking the CORINE land-use dataset as input data. Llobregat, Guadalhorce and Gardon d’Anduze basins have been identified as potentially interesting for simulating urban land-use dynamics due to the existence of important urban areas within their limits. The assessment of the rural land-use changes has been carried out using the results from the EURURALIS project (2000–2030 period), available for all the basins.The results of this paper are framed in the FP7 project IMPRINTS that has the aim of analyzing impacts of future changes to provide guidelines for mitigation and adaptation measures and, in general, to improve the application of the EC Flood Risk Management Directive.     

Adaptation to changing water resources in the Ganges basin, northern India

An ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) runs from the EU HighNoon project are used to project future air temperatures and precipitation on a 25 km grid for the Ganges basin in northern India, with a view to assessing impact of climate change on water resources and determining what multi-sector adaptation measures and policies might be adopted at different spatial scales.The RCM results suggest an increase in mean annual temperature, averaged over the Ganges basin, in the range 1–4 °C over the period from 2000 to 2050, using the SRES A1B forcing scenario. Projections of precipitation indicate that natural variability dominates the climate change signal and there is considerable uncertainty concerning change in regional annual mean precipitation by 2050. The RCMs do suggest an increase in annual mean precipitation in this region to 2050, but lack significant trend. Glaciers in headwater tributary basins of the Ganges appear to be continuing to decline but it is not clear whether meltwater runoff continues to increase. The predicted changes in precipitation and temperature will probably not lead to significant increase in water availability to 2050, but the timing of runoff from snowmelt will likely occur earlier in spring and summer. Water availability is subject to decadal variability, with much uncertainty in the contribution from climate change.Although global social-economic scenarios show trends to urbanization, locally these trends are less evident and in some districts rural population is increasing. Falling groundwater levels in the Ganges plain may prevent expansion of irrigated areas for food supply. Changes in socio-economic development in combination with projected changes in timing of runoff outside the monsoon period will make difficult choices for water managers.Because of the uncertainty in future water availability trends, decreasing vulnerability by augmenting resilience is the preferred way to adapt to climate change. Adaptive policies are required to increase society's capacity to adapt to both anticipated and unanticipated conditions. Integrated solutions are needed, consistent at various spatial scales, to assure robust and sustainable future use of resources. For water resources this is at the river basin scale. At present adaptation measures in India are planned at national and state level, not taking into account the physical boundaries of water systems. To increase resilience adaptation plans should be made locally specific. However, as it is expected that the partitioning of water over the different sectors and regions will be the biggest constraint, a consistent water use plan at catchment and river basin scale may be the best solution. A policy enabling such river basin planning is essential.     

Reducing the risks posed by natural hazards and climate change: the need for a participatory dialogue between the scientific community and policy makers

In the last two decades we witnessed a progressive shift in the approach towards the reduction of the impact of natural hazards. From a general reactive approach, focusing on strengthening disaster response mechanisms, we have moved to proactive approaches. There has been recognition that each element of society, from public institutions to private sector, from community-based organizations to every single individual, can make a difference by acting before disasters strike to reduce the associated risks of human and economic losses. This proactive approach can be summarized in three words: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR).Today, DRR is an approach used in several sectors and research areas. In the Development sphere, DRR is considered a key feature for sustainability of economic and development gains – especially for developing countries. Significantly, the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (2009) is titled “Risk and poverty in a changing climate” highlighting the importance of DRR in reducing poverty while being a means to address the challenges posed by adaptation to climate change.This paper, which serves as an introduction to the special issue of Environment Science & Policy on climate change impact on water-related disasters, intends to provide readers with an overview of the main policy frameworks addressing DRR internationally and in Europe. Further, it aims to offer some “food for thought” on the underlying opportunities we have to enhance the resilience of our communities towards the risks posed by weather-related hazards. It stresses the importance of governance of risks, which starts from an effective dialogue between the scientific community and the policy makers: those who have the responsibility to decide on the most cost-effective interventions to address climate change adaptation and risk reduction.     

Groundwater dependent ecosystems. Part I: Hydroecological status and trends

Groundwater dependent ecosystems (GDEs) include valuable ecosystems such as springs, wetlands, rivers, lakes and lagoons. The protection of these systems and services they provide is highlighted by international agreements, i.e. Ramsar convention on wetlands, and regional legislation, i.e. the European Water Framework Directive. Groundwater provides water, nutrients and a relatively stable temperature. However, the role of groundwater in surface ecosystems is not fully understood. The ecosystem can depend on groundwater directly or indirectly, and the reliance can be continuous, seasonal or occasional. This has implications for the vulnerability of ecosystems, as some may be easily affected by external pressure. Conceptual models and quantitative assessments of how groundwater interacts with the environment are needed. GDEs are also threatened by different land use activities and climate change. Hence, we need to understand how GDEs are affected by changes in groundwater quantity and quality, as severe groundwater changes have been observed in many regions. This study examines key aspects of GDEs (hydrogeology, geochemistry and biodiversity) in order to improve conceptual understanding of the role of groundwater in such ecosystems. The status and baseline of different types of GDEs are discussed, with particular emphasis on past evidence of environmental change and potential thresholds and threats in GDEs in various parts of Europe with different land use, climate and geology.