A concept model to estimate the potential distribution of the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama) in Australia under climate change—A means for assessing biosecurity risk

Increasing global temperatures as a result of climate change are widely considered inevitable for Australia. Despite this, the specific effects of climate change on Australian agriculture are little studied and the effects on agricultural pests and diseases are virtually unknown. In this paper we consider the impact of climate change on the Asiatic citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri Kuwayama [Hemiptera: Psyllidae]); one of two known vectors of huanglongbing (citrus greening); a debilitating disease which is caused in Asia by a phloem-limited bacterium ‘Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus’ (α-Proteobacteria). D. citri does not occur in Australia, but if introduced would pose a major threat to the viability of the Australian citrus industry and to native Citrus species. This paper presents an approach developed to understand how climate change may influence the behaviour, distribution and breeding potential of D. citri. Here we developed and describe an initial dynamic point model of D. citri biology in relation to its citrus host and applied it to a scenario of increasing temperatures, as indicators of climate change, on a continental scale. A comparison between model outputs for the three time frames considered (1990, 2030 and 2070) confirms that increasing temperatures projected under climate change will affect the timing and duration of new citrus growth (flush) necessary for psyllid development throughout Australia. Flushing will start progressively earlier as the temperature increases and be of shorter duration. There will also be a gradual southward expansion of shorter durations of the occurrence of flush. Increasing temperatures will impact on D. citri both directly through alteration of its temperature dependant development cycle and indirectly through the impact on the host flushing cycle. For the whole of Australia, a comparison between model outputs for the three scenarios considered indicates the seasonality of D. citri development will change to match changes in citrus flush initiation. Results indicate that the risk of establishment by D. citri is projected to decrease under increasing temperatures, mainly due to shortened intervals when it can feed on new leaf flushes of the host. However, the spatially heterogeneous results also suggest that regions located on the southern coastline of Australia could become more suitable for D. citri than projected under current temperatures. These results confirm the value of a linked host-pest approach as based on D. citri climatic requirements alone the model would have accounted only for shorter development periods and predicted an increased risk of potential distribution.     

Geographic patterns of natal dispersal in barn swallows <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hirundo rustica</Emphasis> from Denmark and Spain

Dispersal is an important factor that determines the degree of gene flow and, hence, the degree of differentiation among populations. Using two long-term datasets on natal philopatry and short-distance dispersal in barn swallows Hirundo rustica from Denmark and Spain, we evaluated the fitness costs and benefits and test a number of predictions about the functional significance of dispersal. The proportion of philopatric individuals was more than six times larger in Spain than in Denmark, with a higher rate of philopatry in males than in females. Dispersal propensity decreased in both populations during the course of the study. Males from the more philopatric Spanish population lived longer when philopatric rather than dispersing while that was not the case for either sex of the less philopatric Danish population. There were large differences in dispersal propensity among cohorts and breeding sites, suggesting that sites differed in their suitability as sites for immigrants. We found no evidence consistent with the mate competition hypothesis suggesting that males in better condition or with larger condition-dependent secondary sexual characters were more likely to be philopatric. These findings suggest that there is a high degree of intraspecific variation in dispersal propensity between populations, probably relating to local differences in costs and benefits of philopatry and dispersal.     

全球变暖环境下基于金属媒介的气候敏感性研究：对一种典型两栖动物的早期和潜在影响

尽管有很多复杂的模型预测了未来温度对变温动物的影响,广泛分布的亚致命性污染物对变温动物的热应激反应产生的影响却少有模型提及。由不断上升的温度所带来更高的代谢率可以让变温动物获利地加快代谢与发育,但在长期亚致命性污染物的存在下,因清除或解毒而导致的对生存资源的额外需求很可能使得生物难以跟上温度上升的步伐,即毒物诱导的气候敏感性假说。在以自然湖水为背景的室外生物鉴定中,我们调查了一种模式变温动物在6个不同浓度的镉、铜和铅混合物以及3个热动态下(环境温度,高于环境温度1.5摄氏度以及高于环境温度2.5摄氏度)的日周期性温度变化。金属浓度在大约10倍生物可利用性慢性标准单位 (BCCU,慢性标准浓度的生物可利用性比例总和)之下时,升温对于寇普氏树蛙(Hyla chrysoscelis)没有显著作用。在高于10倍BCCU以及高于环境温度1.5摄氏度的处理条件下,生长受到促进。相反地,在28倍BCCU以及升温2.5摄氏度的条件下,不仅生长情况收到抑制,变态后20 d未成年树蛙的身体状况指标相比于背景环境(环境温度下的湖水)中的未成年树蛙也要低34%。这些发现认为毒物诱导的气候敏感性是通过对青少年阶段的生物产生长期潜在的影响而实现的。在22世纪,即使在最保守的全球变暖预测模型下,亚致命性污染物依然会加剧变温动物所遭受的来自升温的影响。
精选自Tyler A. Hallman, Marjorie L. Brooks. Metals-mediated climate susceptibility in a warming world: larval and latent effects on a model amphibian. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 35, Issue 7, pages 1872–1882, July 2016. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3337
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/etc.3337/full
     

Characterizing the urban heat island in current and future climates in New Jersey

Climate change caused by increased anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and other greenhouse gases is a long-term climate hazard with the potential to alter the intensity, temporal pattern, and spatial extent of the urban heat island (UHI) in metropolitan regions. Particular meteorological conditions—including high temperature, low cloud cover, and low average wind speed—tend to intensify the heat island effect. Analyses of existing archived climate data for the vicinities of Newark and Camden, New Jersey indicate urban to suburban/rural temperature differences over the previous half-century. Surface temperatures derived from a Landsat thermal image for each site were also analyzed for spatial patterns of heat islands. Potential interactions between the UHI effect and projected changes in temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover are then examined under a range of climate change scenarios, encompassing different greenhouse gas emissions trajectories. The scenarios include those utilized in the Metropolitan East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change and the A2 and B2 scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).

The UHI effect was detected in Newark and Camden in both satellite surface-temperature and meteorological station airtemperature records. The average difference in urban—nonurban minimum temperatures was 3.0 °C for the Newark area and 1.5 °C for Camden. Extrapolation of current trends and the selected global climate models (GCMs) project that temperatures in the case study areas will continue to warm in the current century, as they have over the past half-century. An initial analysis of global climate scenarios shows that wind speed may decline, and that cloud cover may increase in the coming decades. These generally small countervailing tendencies suggest that urban—nonurban temperature differences may be maintained under climate change.

Overall warmer conditions throughout the year may extend the spatial and temporal dimensions of the urban-suburban heat complex. The incidence of heat-related morbidity and mortality are likely to increase with interactions between the increased frequency and duration of heat waves and the UHI effect. Camden and Newark will likely be subjected to higher temperatures, and areas experiencing UHI-like conditions and temperature extremes will expand. Thus, urban heat island-related hazard potential is likely to increase in a warmer climate.     

Present and future economic impacts of climate extremes in the United States

Recent studies have yielded definitive information about the nation's economic impacts from extreme climates, although some sectoral values rely on educated estimates since hard data does not exist. Review of existing measures of the national impacts from weather—climate conditions reveals annual average losses of $36 billion from extremes and gains averaging $26 billion when conditions are favorable (good growing seasons, mild winters, etc.). Comparison of these values with various measures of the national economy reveals that the impacts are relatively small, typically about 1% of the Gross Domestic Product and less than 2% of the federal budget. The current impact information provides a basis for assessing various estimates of the nation's financial impacts resulting from a future climate change due to global warming. Most such estimates predict values similar to the magnitude of current climate impacts. Moreover, most economists attempting such estimates express a large degree of uncertainty about their projections.     

Working with states to build competence in disaster response

This paper examines the relationship between national disaster response authorities and the international humanitarian community through case studies in three countries where it is generally agreed that good working relations exist. It seeks to understand the common phenomena which led to those good relations. The paper takes as its premise that the international humanitarian aid community, bruised by its experience in non-functioning and predatory states, has developed an unhelpful aversion to cooperation with, and working through, local government. It posits that in a future with climate change, disasters will be more frequent and this requires a necessary shift, on the part of international agencies and local government from seeing disaster response as exceptional and interventionist to viewing it as a standard part of sovereign duty and normalcy. The study highlights a number of common features across the three case studies which shed light on why disaster response has been transformed in the study countries.     

Climate change as a major slow-onset hazard to development: an integrated approach to bridge the policy gap

The paper considers climate change from a hazard to economic development and public security perspective. Integration of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction policies is substantiated, building upon resilience concept as a unique methodological basis and civil protection measures as a common practice. Specific recommendations to implement this integration are introduced.     

Making sense of natural hazard mitigation: Personal,social and cultural influences

Worldwide, recognition of the growing risk faced by communities in many countries from natural hazard events has stimulated interest in promoting people's capacity to co-exist with often beneficial, but occasionally hazardous, natural processes by encouraging the adoption of preparedness measures. Starting from recognition that levels of hazard preparedness are generally low, this paper examines how people's decisions about hazard mitigation derive from how they interpret the hazards, their relationship with the hazards and the sources of information about hazards. It describes how interpretive processes at the person (outcome expectancy), community (community participation and collective efficacy) and societal (empowerment and trust) level interact to predict levels of hazard preparedness. The data support the argument that the effectiveness of public hazard education strategies community preparedness can be increased by integrating risk management activities with community development strategies. The cross-cultural validity of the model is discussed using data from communities in New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Testing the model across countries and hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic hazards) supports its all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability. The theoretical (e.g. identifying the degree to which the processes that underpin how people respond to hazard threats are culturally equivalent) and practical (e.g. providing a common basis for collaborative learning and research between countries and providing risk management agencies in different cultures with access to a wider range of risk management options) implications of the cross-cultural equivalence of the model are discussed.     

Small island developing states: natural disaster vulnerability and global change

Abstract

This paper sets out an examination of natural disaster amongst small island developing states (SIDS), and presents a framework for assessing the interaction of global pressures and local dynamics in the production of human vulnerability. Change at the global level is found to be a source of new opportunities as well as constraints on building local resilience to natural disaster. Much depends on the orientation of the state in global economic and political systems. The United Nations is a key global actor with relevance to shaping vulnerabilityin island states, and the impact of the UN Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction is reviewed. It is concluded that this is a critical time for SIDS which must contend with ongoing developmental pressures in addition to growing pressures from risks associated with global environmental change and economic liberalisation that threaten their physical and economic security.