Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe

A climatic classification for Europe suitable for pesticide fate modelling was constructed using a 3-stage process involving the identification of key climatic variables, the extraction of the dominant modes of spatial variability in those variables and the use of k-means clustering to identify regions with similar climates. The procedure identified 16 coherent zones that reflect the variability of climate across Europe whilst maintaining a manageable number of zones for subsequent modelling studies. An analysis of basic climatic parameters for each zone demonstrates the success of the scheme in identifying distinct climatic regions. Objective criteria were used to identify one representative 26-year daily meteorological series from a European dataset for each zone. The representativeness of each series was then verified against the zonal classifications. These new FOOTPRINT climate zones provide a state-of-the-art objective classification of European climate complete with representative daily data that are suitable for use in pesticide fate modelling.     

城市韧性多因素综合评估模型研究

为避免突发事件发生时城市系统因缺乏前瞻性防范而造成严重损失,结合城市灾害事件严重度、承灾体脆弱性、适应力、抵御力和恢复力5个城市韧性影响因素,同时考虑相关指标完备性以及数据获取难易程度,构建城市韧性多因素综合评估模型,并结合湖南省实际数据对所建模型进行应用与分析。结果表明：城市韧性多因素综合评估模型基于城市韧性主要特点,可反映城市韧性分布情况,发现城市安全发展中存在的薄弱环节,为相关城市管理者开展城市韧性建设提供决策辅助。     

Realising a resilient and sustainable built environment: towards a strategic agenda for the United Kingdom

Recent natural and human-induced emergencies have highlighted the vulnerability of the built environment. Although most emergency events are not entirely unexpected, and the effects can be mitigated, emergency managers in the United Kingdom have not played a sufficiently proactive role in the mitigation of such events. If a resilient and sustainable built environment is to be achieved, emergency management should be more proactive and receive greater input from the stakeholders responsible for the planning, design, construction and operation of the built environment. This paper highlights the need for emergency management to take a more systematic approach to hazard mitigation by integrating more with professions from the construction sector. In particular, design changes may have to be considered, critical infrastructures must be protected, planning policies should be reviewed, and resilient and sustainable agendas adopted by all stakeholders.     

中国西南部分地区地震灾害恢复力时空变化特征研究

从自然、社会和经济三个维度遴选了12个指标,构建地震灾害恢复力的综合评价指标体系,综合运用熵权法与模糊逻辑等方法,评价西南四省(四川、云南、贵州、重庆)的地震灾害恢复力,并分析其时空变化特征及主要影响因素.结果表明:2006-2016年,西南四省大部分地区地震灾害恢复力呈提升趋势,且恢复力水平总体随城市级别的增大而增大...     

Principles for urban nature-based solutions

Nature-based solutions (NBS) were introduced as integrated, multifunctional and multi-beneficial solutions to a wide array of socio-ecological challenges. Although principles for a common understanding and implementation of NBS were already developed on a landscape scale, specific principles are needed with regard to an application in urban areas. Urban areas come with particular challenges including (i) spatial conflicts with urban system nestedness, (ii) specific urban biodiversity, fragmentation and altered environments, (iii) value plurality, multi-actor interdependencies and environmental injustices, (iv) path-dependencies with cultural and planning legacies and (v) a potential misconception of cities as being artificial landscapes disconnected from nature. Given these challenges, in this perspective paper, we build upon and integrate knowledge from the most recent academic work on NBS in urban areas and introduce five distinct, integrated principles for urban NBS design, planning and implementation. Our five principles should help to transcend governance gaps and advance the scientific discourse of urban NBS towards a more effective and sustainable urban development. To contribute to resilient urban futures, the design, planning, policy and governance of NBS should (1) consider the need for a systemic understanding, (2) contribute to benefiting people and biodiversity, (3) contribute to inclusive solutions for the long-term, (4) consider context conditions and (5) foster communication and learning.     

A Flexible Global Warming Index for Use in an Integrated Approach to Climate Change Assessment

Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO₂). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly, they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.

KLUM@GTAP: Introducing Biophysical Aspects of Land-Use Decisions into a Computable General Equilibrium Model a Coupling Experiment

In this paper, the global agricultural land use model Kleines Land Use Model is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis Project in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasise the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.

Testing the limits of social resilience in ant colonies

Social resilience is the ability of Leptothorax ant colonies to re-assemble after dissociation, as caused, for example, by an emigration to a new nest site. Through social resilience individual workers re-adopt their spatial positions relative to one another and resume their tasks without any time being wasted in worker respecialisation. Social resilience can explain how an efficient division of labour can be maintained throughout the trials and tribulations of colony ontogeny including the, often substantial, period after the queen dies when the ability to conserve worker social relationships may be essential for efficiency to be maintained. The mechanism underlying social resilience is, therefore, expected to be robust even in the absence of many of the colony’s components, such as the queen, the brood and even a large proportion of the workers. Such losses are likely, given the ecology of this genus. Using sociotomy experiments, we found that social resilience can occur in the absence of the queen. Furthermore, the spatial component of social resilience can occur even when the queen, the brood, as well as a large proportion of the workers, are all absent simultaneously and hence many of the tasks are missing. We conclude, therefore, that social resilience is indeed robust. This does not, however, preclude worker flexibility in response to changes in task supply and demand. We propose a possible sorting mechanism based on worker mobility levels which might explain the robustness underlying this phenomenon. Received: 25 October 1999 / Accepted: 1 April 2000     

Building disaster resilience using social messaging networks: the WeChat community in Houston,Texas, during Hurricane Harvey

Analyses of disaster resilience have focused increasingly on the role of social capital and online social networks in recovery. This study complements this field of work by investigating three key issues. First, it examines how a social messaging application, WeChat, helped individuals to access and to mobilise three types of social capital—bonding, bridging, and linking—during Hurricane Harvey, a Category 4 storm that made landfall in Louisiana and Texas in the United States in August 2017, resulting in significant flooding and loss of life. Second, it pinpoints and assesses quantitatively how individuals' WeChat group usage and social capital influenced their post-disaster well-being. Third, it demonstrates how a minority and immigrant community in Houston, Texas, overcame the disadvantages commonly observed in other disaster research through the utilisation of social media. The findings of this study should aid governmental and community efforts to foster resilience in the face of natural and human-induced hazards.     

Contribution of Ecosystem Services to Air Quality and Climate Change Mitigation Policies: The Case of Urban Forests in Barcelona,Spain

Mounting research highlights the contribution of ecosystem services provided by urban forests to quality of life in cities, yet these services are rarely explicitly considered in environmental policy targets. We quantify regulating services provided by urban forests and evaluate their contribution to comply with policy targets of air quality and climate change mitigation in the municipality of Barcelona, Spain. We apply the i-Tree Eco model to quantify in biophysical and monetary terms the ecosystem services “air purification,” “global climate regulation,” and the ecosystem disservice “air pollution” associated with biogenic emissions. Our results show that the contribution of urban forests regulating services to abate pollution is substantial in absolute terms, yet modest when compared to overall city levels of air pollution and GHG emissions. We conclude that in order to be effective, green infrastructure-based efforts to offset urban pollution at the municipal level have to be coordinated with territorial policies at broader spatial scales.