The oil and gas sector: from climate laggard to climate leader?

ABSTRACT

The oil and gas industry has traditionally been reticent to engage with the issues surrounding climate change, typically being cast as a laggard. Yet, over recent years, the sector has begun taking on a more active role in climate governance, doing so in a variety of capacities – as initiators, catalysts and participants in industry-led or multi-stakeholder efforts. The Oil and Gas Climate Initiative is reviewed, as a case study to illustrate emerging climate leadership within the global oil and gas industry. In 2015, its members committed to a two-degree pathway. The paucity of research on the nascent role of oil and gas firms in climate governance is addressed.     

Follow the leader? Conceptualising the relationship between leaders and followers in polycentric climate governance

ABSTRACT

Existing scholarship on climate governance has not sufficiently considered the relationship between climate leaders/pioneers and followers. Because of the global commons nature of climate change, unilateral leadership or pioneership by one or a small number of actors will be insufficient to combat climate change effectively. The need to take seriously the relationship between leaders and followers is all the greater in the wake of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which emphasises diffuse, bottom–up action. The relationship between leaders and followers in polycentric climate governance is unpacked in this contribution. What types of actors can be climate followers? Through what pathways can followership emerge and how can we capture the essential characteristics of leader–follower relationships? What conditions facilitate (or hinder) followership? The utility of the approach is illustrated using cases of EU climate leadership and (non-) followership of other actors.     

Evaluating and Ranking the Vulnerability of Global Marine Ecosystems to Anthropogenic Threats

Abstract:  Marine ecosystems are threatened by a suite of anthropogenic stressors. Mitigating multiple threats is a daunting task, particularly when funding constraints limit the number of threats that can be addressed. Threats are typically assessed and prioritized via expert opinion workshops that often leave no record of the rationale for decisions, making it difficult to update recommendations with new information. We devised a transparent, repeatable, and modifiable method for collecting expert opinion that describes and documents how threats affect marine ecosystems. Experts were asked to assess the functional impact, scale, and frequency of a threat to an ecosystem; the resistance and recovery time of an ecosystem to a threat; and the certainty of these estimates. To quantify impacts of 38 distinct anthropogenic threats on 23 marine ecosystems, we surveyed 135 experts from 19 different countries. Survey results showed that all ecosystems are threatened by at least nine threats and that nine ecosystems are threatened by > 90% of existing threats. The greatest threats (highest impact scores) were increasing sea temperature, demersal destructive fishing, and point-source organic pollution. Rocky reef, coral reef, hard-shelf, mangrove, and offshore epipelagic ecosystems were identified as the most threatened. These general results, however, may be partly influenced by the specific expertise and geography of respondents, and should be interpreted with caution. This approach to threat analysis can identify the greatest threats (globally or locally), most widespread threats, most (or least) sensitive ecosystems, most (or least) threatened ecosystems, and other metrics of conservation value. Additionally, it can be easily modified, updated as new data become available, and scaled to local or regional settings, which would facilitate informed and transparent conservation priority setting.     

Cost-effective environmental policy: implications of induced technological change

Cost-effective environmental policy generally requires that all emission sources are faced with the same tax. In this paper I discuss how the existence of induced technological change may alter this result, if at least some of the effect is external to the firm. Focusing on Learning by doing (LBD) effects in abatement activities, it is shown that emission sources with external learning effects should be faced with a higher tax than emission sources with only autonomous technological change. By using simple numerical simulations, it is further investigated to what degree a cost-effective climate policy differs from a free quota market, under various assumptions about learning effects, diffusion of technology and environmental targets. The results indicate that optimal taxes may be significantly higher in the industrial world than in the developing world. Moreover, the industrial world's share of global abatement may be much higher in a cost-effective solution than in a free quota market. The global cost savings of a fully flexible implementation of the Kyoto Protocol are further questioned, as potential spillover effects of technological growth in the industrial world are not internalised in the market.     

Spectroscopic tools for remote sensing of greenhouse gases CH<Subscript>4</Subscript>, CF<Subscript>4</Subscript> and SF<Subscript>6</Subscript>

Highly symmetrical molecules such as CH₄, CF₄ or SF₆ are known to be atmospheric pollutants and greenhouse gases. High-resolution spectroscopy in the infrared is particularly suitable for the monitoring of gas concentration and radiative transfers in the earth's atmosphere. This technique requires extensive theoretical studies for the modeling of the spectra of such molecules (positions, intensities and shapes of absorption lines). Here, we have developed powerful tools for the analysis and the simulation of absorption spectra of highly symmetrical molecules. These tools have been implemented in the spherical top data system (STDS) and highly-spherical top data system (HTDS) software available at http://www.u-bourgogne.fr/LPUB/shTDS.html. They include a compilation of modeled data obtained during the last 20 years. An overview of our latest results in this domain will be presented. Electronic Publication     

Long-term climate variability at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant,southeastern New Mexico,USA

The United States Department of Energy is developing the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in southeastern New Mexico for the disposal of transuranic wastes generated by defense programs. Because changes in climate during the next 10,000 years (10 ka) may affect performance of the repository, an understanding of long-term climate variability is essential for evaluating regulatory compliance. Fluctuations in global climate corresponding to glaciation and deglaciation of the northern hemisphere have been regular in both frequency and amplitude for at least 780 ka. Coolest and wettest conditions in the past have occurred at the WIPP during glacial maxima, when the North American ice sheet reached its southern limit roughly 1200 km north of the WIPP and deflected the jet stream southward. Average precipitation in southeastern New Mexico during the last glacial maximum 22-18 ka before present (BP) was approximately twice that of the present. Driest conditions (precipitation approximately 90% of present) occurred 6.5-4.5 ka BP, after the ice sheet had retreated to its present location. Wet periods of unknown duration have occurred since the retreat of the ice sheet, but none have exceeded glacial conditions. Global climate models suggest that anthropogenic climate changes (i.e., warming caused by an increased greenhouse effect) will not result in an increase in precipitation at the WIPP. The climate of the last glacial maximum is therefore suitable for use as a cooler and wetter limit for variability during the next 10 ka.     

Climate and human impact on lowland lake sedimentation in Central Coastal California: the record from c. 650 ad to the present

The limnological record of human impact on catchment land cover and on lake sedimentation during the historical period has been established for Pinto Lake in Central Coastal California. In addition, the sedimentary record of the ‘pre-impact’ condition preserves evidence of a climatic control on the nature of lake sedimentation. Chronological marker horizons have been determined using pollen data in combination with the documented land-use history and introductions of exotic species. Further chronological data have been determined using ¹⁴C and ¹³⁷Cs. The impact of Mexican and Euro-American immigrants and their ‘imported’ land-use practices is clearly reflected in an order of magnitude increase in the rate of lake sedimentation to c. 9 kg m⁻² year⁻¹ (c. 2 cm year⁻¹) between 1770 and 1850. Here, the occurrence of exotic plant species indicates disturbance as early as c. 1769–1797, whilst redwood deforestation between 1844 and 1860 represents the most significant human impact. Changes in the nature of sedimentation prior to this reveal a high degree of sensitivity to changes in precipitation where subtle decreases in lake level and the supply of runoff-derived mineral matter have resulted in two periods of organic lake sedimentation c. 650–900 and 1275–1750. Set against this background condition of high sensitivity, the dramatic impacts of Euro-American settlement are unsurprising. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Species‐level persistence probabilities for recovery and conservation status assessment

Recovery planning for species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act has been hampered by a lack of consistency and transparency, which can be improved by implementing a standardized approach for evaluating species status and developing measurable recovery criteria. However, managers lack an assessment method that integrates threat abatement and can be used when demographic data are limited. To help meet these needs, we demonstrated an approach for evaluating species status based on habitat configuration data. We applied 3 established persistence measures (patch occupancy, metapopulation capacity, and proportion of population lost) to compare 2 conservation strategies (critical habitat designated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Forest Service's Carbonate Habitat Management Strategy) and 2 threat scenarios (maximum limestone mining, removal of all habitat in areas with mining claims; minimum mining, removal of habitat only in areas with existing operations and high‐quality ore) against a baseline of existing habitat for 3 federally listed plant species. Protecting all area within the designated critical habitat maintained a similar level (83.9–99.9%) of species persistence as the baseline, whereas maximum mining greatly reduced persistence (0.51–38.4% maintained). The 3 persistence measures provided complementary insights reflecting different aspects of habitat availability (total area, number of patches, patch size, and connectivity). These measures can be used to link recovery criteria developed following the 3 R principles (representation, redundancy, and resilience) to the resulting improvements in species viability. By focusing on amount and distribution of habitat, our method provides a means of assessing the status of data‐poor species to inform decision making under the Endangered Species Act.     

旅游社区安全:概念及研究述评

全域旅游的兴起使得旅游社区及其安全问题日益重要,然而学术界尚未建立起旅游社区安全研究体系。旅游社区安全是以旅游为主业的社区内部协调稳定,外部健康存续,旅游业持续发展的一种状态,内涵丰富,类型多样。当前学术界主要是从旅游社区脆弱性、恢复力以及可持续发展等角度入手进行该论题的研究,且多是从目的地视角出发,并未突出社区的独立性。未来的旅游社区安全研究应首先构建起独立的研究体系,并在与国外进行比较研究的基础上,强调多样性和适宜性的研究方法和路径。     

The ambiguity of federalism in climate policy-making: how the political system in Austria hinders mitigation and facilitates adaptation

Although the impacts of federalism on environmental policy-making are still contested, many policy analysts emphasise its advantages in climate policy-making. This applies to the mitigation of climate change, in particular when federal governments (as in the U.S.) are inactive. More recently, federalism is also expected to empower sub-national actors in adapting to local impacts of climate change. The present paper analyses the role federalism in Austria played in greening the decentralised building sector (relevant for mitigation) on the one hand, and in improving regional flood risk management (relevant for adaptation) on the other. In line with the so-called matching school of the environmental federalism research strand we conclude that Austrian federalism proved to be more appropriate for regional flood protection than for mitigating climate change. We highlight that it is not federalism per se but federalism embedded in various contextual factors that shape environmental policy-making. Among these factors are the spatial scale of an environmental problem, the nitty-gritty of polity systems, and national politics (such as federal positions on climate change mitigation).